I keep wanting to get (and stay) long oil. I really believe the cold weather is going to stick the yanks hard up east and stay there for a least a few weeks. Every time a little footing is found, it seems as though someone gets forced to liquidate.
Yea this whole no cold weather/supply/new strategy in the middle east/hedge fund momentum thing is hard to figure out.....All I saw was a small bottom forming on 1/11/2007 and bought into the best of breed type stocks in the sector.....Saved a little bit of cash today by selling out this afternoon (kind of early), but wouldn't even try to guess to see if we test 50 again on the spot...I still think this little curved bottom on great volume is plenty to scare the airliners and I will hold most of these oil stocks into earnings if appropriate....Other than that I am quite cautious about stocks that have momentum behind them going into earnings.....Getting into more and more Cash/ETF's only seems smart to me at this period in the game.... $COSTAverageMAN
The refiners might struggle a bit more than the drillers....the majors still need to DRILL (WFT was one resilient bastard, would not come down all day!)....their supplies are dwindling. Natty over 7......wouldn't be there if some folks with $$$ weren't fairly confident in a cold (sustained at that) snap. Still, I suppose I would bet on the drillers and natty over the refiners (though I think all things Oil will do fine over the next couple months....even in the shoulder months).
CAL 44.82 -2.61 (-5.50%) UAUA 44.81 -3.94 (-8.08%) LUV 15.37 -0.14 (-0.90%) Not a bad call on the airliners there.
Good Morning All Thanks....Most of the February airline options got closed out on Friday...With great success...Still waiting on LCC and JBLU earnings tomorrow.....I kept a few contracts open on each position, but the majority of the contracts are closed now.... Results so far.... 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. CAL 50.00 puts @3.70 1/26/2007---Closed Feb. CAL 50.00 puts @ 9.20 (((((((((The down grade helped this position))))))))) 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. AMR 40.00 puts @3.80 1/26/2007---Closed Feb. AMR 40.00 puts @ 4.10 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. LCC 60.00 puts @3.60 1/25/2007---Closed Feb. LCC 60.00 puts @ 8.70 ((((Half of the contracts still open...Delta bid should help today)))) 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. UAUA 50.00 puts @2.50 1/26/2007---Closed Feb. UAUA 50.00 puts @ 6.60 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. LUV 17.50 puts @1.45 1/26/2007---Closed Feb. LUV 17.50 puts @ 2.30 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. AAI 15.00 puts @0.55 1/25/2007---Closed Feb. AAI 15.00 puts @ 1.65 1/12/2007---Bought Feb. JBLU 17.50 puts @ 1.65 ---------------------STILL OPEN--------------------- It feels good to make such a bold bet and have it work out.....((((publicly)))) I miss making market calls daily here and I hope the community can understand my situation as to why I can't continue to divulge my portfolio to the world....Looking back I will never know if by posting my performance and stock selections if I was actually inc/dec my performance....I choose to think that it helped others come up with at least a list of companies to research and possibly added buying action into the plays....I would hate to think I was getting arbed or shorted against, but that was the risk of posting my largest positions publicly..... Anyway I still feel the market is slowly rolling over AGAIN and I would look to be getting into less volatile names....MAN is this Merger MONDAY or what.....Deals everywhere....If deals like this don't get us to close in the Green today I would seriously consider getting very short..... What about the 10 year pushing a 5 handle and the dollar acting great so far this year.... To all my REIT investors out there.....SELL...SELL...SELL......ahead of some of the big players in the space like SLG reporting today and BXP, MPW tomorrow and AVB, NNN on Wed. and DRE on Thurs..... Don't short by any means, but take some off the table if you are invested here....I am.... EOP deal is done and the MLS deal was the catalyst I needed to get out..... It's been a great run in this sector and I can't see REIT's competing that well with the income investor now that the 10 yr's back on the rise and HSBC offering 6% on cash in a saving's account....Just my opinion....calling another top in this best of breed sector..... From this CALL on where to go hide 06-08-06 11:07 AM RUSSELL 2000 Breaks through 200 day MA of 699.00----Currently 693.48 That took a little less than a month from the 1st day of the sell off..... My thoughts on this are not very optimistic.....we bounced off the 700 level I think a week ago..... So what to make of this? If this is the start of a 2 year bear market, I would be very careful buying and would sell into every rally.....If this is just an equity rotation, I would be rotating in high yielding stocks (REIT, Tankers, Utilities, Large Cap Blue Chips, Energy Trust) ......Just a list off the top of my head and this is where I have been rotating..... Let me know if you see some good defensive plays looking right.... That was a good call looking back.... REIT funds are up +40% since then... ISE looking right bouncing off the 200 day on Friday...I bought at 43.81....May of caught the bottom $COSTAverageMAN
01-22-07 10:59 AM Emerging MKTS can and will correct....I have a gut feeling it will be in the very early part of Febuary....BTW What about the asia bull market going on....Get on board if you already haven't, because I would be happy to thin my positions out to you... That is all that needs to be said about that bubble...Worried always, but still outperfoming daily... ^SSEC Shanghai Composite 2,786.33 2:00AM ET 144.23 (-4.92%) ^HSI Hang Seng 20,106.42 4:59AM ET 354.04 (-1.73%) ^BSESN BSE 30 14,090.92 5:28AM ET 121.04 (-0.85%) ^JKSE Jakarta Composite 1,757.26 5:33AM ET 8.26 (-0.47%) ^KLSE KLSE Composite 1,189.35 4:02AM ET 7.93 (0.67%) ^N225 Nikkei 225 17,383.42 2:00AM ET 106.77 (-0.61%) ^NZ50 NZSE 50 4,152.98 Jan 30 24.95 (0.60%) ^STI Straits Times 3,125.56 4:06AM ET 4.70 (-0.15%) ^KS11 Seoul Composite 1,360.23 4:03AM ET 10.49 (-0.77%) ^TWII Taiwan Weighted 7,699.64 12:46AM ET 40.27 (-0.52%) My largest china play was MCHFX and It has been fully closed out....a little over 55% return.....Closed on the 1/22/2007 Feels nice.....what about the cup an handle break out on USO yesterday at 46.10.....Thanks OPEC....I'm sure I wasn't the only one who saw the risk/reward trade in this one... 01-22-07 12:08 PM HMMM....You remember the saying Volume=Validity USO for example.... $COSTAverageMAN
Russell at resistance point at 79.01.....MACD and STOCH to turn around in the near turn....Be careful of higher volatility names going into FED at 2:15 today..... BOUGHT FEB 79.00 puts on IWM (IOWNA) bought for $1.00 today Little protection from Lacker and company.... $COSTAverageMAN
Do you still have some long exposure that the puts are protection for or are the puts pretty much the only sizable position you hold right now?
I'm not using you as a market timer, but I am always amused to see us making similar moves. I have also reduced my positions in MCHFX and MINDX a significant amount - 50% - and taken that very nice profit, thanks. I am going to leave a bit in the the two funds so that I can cost average back in again once the market corrects. I'm hardly a buy and hold kind of guy, but out of all my holdings, these most likely fit the criteria. Furthermore, Matthews seems to be one of those shops that behaves responsibly and closes the funds at reasonable size, and I would prefer not to get locked out of their management. But I reserve the right to take profits. I think I will start going back to FXI and IFN for short term trading in these areas with some nice tight stops. IFN's premium has dropped by over 30% to a more reasonable 2%! Just goes to show you how people confused ETF's and CEF's - no CEF player would every pay a 30% premium for anything outside of a momo play. Getting out of my levered muni cef's in favor of more traditional bland muni mutual funds in light of interest rate policy until we see some clear drops in the FF rates. I've never been so heavily focused on cash and short term instruments as now. Probably up to 70%, overall. Good luck!