WWCDN? $CostAverageMAN has been selling little by little every day....Especially any naked November Calls...I feel that this move has been incredible (Along with everybody else), but I have also learned that the stock market is NOT a true represention of the US economy....I'm not very bearish by any means just very cautious about giving back the easiest gains I have made in years.... I Bought the Russell 2000 (IWM) November 77.00 Puts @ 1.30 yesterday to hedge an election sell off... I bought the Russell 2000 (IWM) January 07, 78.00 Puts @ 2.95 yesterday to hedge 2007 outlook and hedge fund profit taking going into 2007... I bought the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) March 07, 85.00 Puts @ 3.90, yesterday... I have options all over the place on individual securities and certain sectors.... Only Sector I have been short is the Trucking Sector.... they have new emission standards for 2007 ($$$$$) and problems with decreasing productivity on the roads (Traffic)....US Slowdown and oil hedges and labour issues==EQUALS== Shorted the volatile names in the sector after WERN missed earnings....It's been $$$ since then.....LSTR, JBHT, CNW and KNX were the only few in the industry that have held up well that I follow during this sector sell off...XPRSA, SWFT, SAIA, ODFL, FWRD, ABFS were great shorts... I Bought the QID @ 55.00 and SDS @ 60.38 and sold the QLD and SSO yesterday....I bought more of the MZZ @ 63.80 to dollar cost this short position...I'm still holding quite a few Nasdaq 100 companies and many of the better trending stocks in the S&P 400 Mid Cap and S&P 500, but have been selling parts of them over the last few days... Am I expecting any major move down....Nothing dramatic anytime soon, but It feels better having a mixed strategy again with both an equity and currency hedge in place... Currently I'm right around 12% Short after yesterdays purchases and 28% Cash and 56% Long and 4% Options.....I was right around 5% Cash and 2% short on Monday of this week, So the selling has been pretty severe this week...I would like to see a pull back, but the question remains is the next pullback the big one....Hard to tell....So when you start to question your decisions (Or the Market) get hedged and sleep better.... Largest Holdings in the portfolio -----FUNDS----Largest 5 Funds BRK/A (Berkshire Hathaway) MCHFX (Matthews China Fund) BEO (Enhanced S&P 500 Covered Call fund) RLF (Cohen & Steers Advance Income Reality Fund) UTF (Cohen & Steers Select Utilty Fund) ----Short FUNDS--- QID--opened 10/26 MZZ--opened 8/18,9/5,10/26 SDS--opened 10/26 DXDDX--Direxion Dollar Bear 2.5X--opened 10/10 DXESX--Direxion Emerging Markets Bear 2.0X--opened 10/25 DXRSX--Direxion Small Cap Bear 2.5X--opened 10/26 DXDsx--Direxion Developed Markets Bear 2.0X--opened 10/26 ----Stocks----Largest 20 holdings CHL (China Mobile) LFC (China Life) T (AT&T) NKE (Nike) GS (Goldman Sachs) MS (Morgan Stanley) CMCSA (Comcast) AAPL (Apple) MSFT (Microsoft) TCHC (21st Century Holding Co) FFH (Fair Fax Financial) AZ (Allianz AG) WCG (Wellcare Health Group) VOLV (Volvo) SMP (Standard Motor Co) GT (Goodyear Tire) CSCO (Cisco) BEAS (BEA Systems) XING (Qiao Xing Universal Telphone) PLT (Plantronics) Got my currency hedged last week with the EUR/USD (Long)---USD/GBP(Short) and USD/CHF(Short)....I plan to hold this hedge into 2007, but will watch Federal Reserve statements about any continued tighting closely or any consistent dollar strength...So far the gains are a little over 1%.... Could get a nice bounce with GDP today, but I doubt it.....I keep laughing when these idiots on TV keep saying the market is still undervalued....Then I look across my portfolio and see +45% gains in more than 130 stocks in less than 3 months....Going into monday I had close to 450 stocks in the portfolio with about +90% in the green....It's been one great ride, but the selling will be here before the year is up....Good trading to you all and the trend has been your friend, but I have been making my stand and taking profits all week long...Think about Risk/Reward if you are not hedged!!! 4% higher or 15% lower for your own stocks not the market...Have a good GDP day!!! $COSTAverageMAN
10/27 11:28am USD/CHF US dollar falls to 1.25 following news that the Swiss National Bank trimmed its $US holdings to 26% from 27% Well I was ahead of one major national bank selling dollars and buying the other majors...Econ data for the week will have my attention and I'm holding all hedges into the election, unless we rally strong....Keynesian "The Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"....A favorite quote of mine!!! Just had one of those gut and T/A feelings that the dollar strength we had over the last couple of months was just a short term currency rebound effect from the May dollar weakness...And real data would again begin to show the true weakness in our currency...Long term I am a dollar bear and will try to hedge my exposure/portfolio when the opportunities arise...I could go into all the details behind these long term outlooks, but just remember all the previous currency crisis this world has had in the past and guess who could be next...Study the collapse of the Rubble and what set it off... Gold/Silver had a nice bounce off the lows of the week as well...It would be nice to see Gold hold $600/oz and Silver hold $12.00 for the week ahead... It looks as if they are off to a bullish start in Asia trading... $COSTAverageMAN
$Cost, the last time you were able to post an Excel in this thread your portfolio was around ~$12-14mm. Then, in August I caught you posting in Traders P/L showing what I believe was close to $18mm. Seems you did well in the summer months. I was wondering if you were able to crack $20m with the recent rally? Whats your return for the year so far?
I have been extremely fortunate this year and have not been long equities during most of the hard times....My wife and I cracked through 20 with no problem....I could share the net, but at these levels whats the point of putting a target on my back...Brokers advice!!! He said I should no longer share anything on a forum like this... But I will consider putting up a sheet with all transactions... $CostAverageMAN
I salute you. You're done. Barring any sort of hyperinflationary scenario, you're set for life and your kids are set for life and your grandkids are set for life. You realize that if you simply put that in a ultra conservative asset allocation with plenty of cash and bonds earning 6% you net well over 700k posttax. What a nice place to be... The only advice I would ever be able to offer you is this: http://www.amazon.com/Family-Wealth...ef=sr_1_1/104-1973816-0792724?ie=UTF8&s=books Which I wouldn't be surprised if you have already read. How does it feel to be your own hedge fund?
That's a good point. $cost, how big is the temptation to just throw your money into some fixed deposit or a mix of low volatility hedge funds? Or is the addiction and the thrill of the markets greater? What drives you?