Hello All....I keep telling myself to relax and enjoy the mountains....So that is what I did today.....Hardly any transactions today....Compared to yesterday.....Well since today was a nice bounce lets talk about Tuesday.....Not very fun, but the anomaly managed to just loose .24% (Not too shaby I must say, but it was mostly because of me....What did I unload?...The question should be what didn't I unload? (India stocks for one got sold off, International ETF's EWY, EWJ, EWG got let loose.....Aluminum AWC, ACH, ERS, AL all got sold near the open after Alcoa nice quarter (Sell the News since they all gapped higher).....Sold off (Well stopped out) on many equities early in the day (Lots of gold miners and petroleum stocks..I had very tight stops on these) ....Got rid of Cement LR and CX as well as pipes in LMS......AND MANY OTHERS!!!!Orders were getting filled left and right.....It was very exciting when I had all this cash and the market was oversold.....I was just cherry picking many of the same equities that got sold earlier on TUESDAY.... Picked up some airliners BA, LUV, UAUA, CAL for an oil hedge... Picked up some stocks reporting for Wed.--- AMD, DTLK, CHINA, CRDN... Picked up some beaten down healthcare AET, AIQ, UNH... Got very lucky with OSK now that it's going to the mid cap 400... Picked up Industrial Machinery IR, DE, TSCO... Picked up Silver stocks---PAAS, SSRI, SLW, HL... Picked up Transports Rail CP and CSX.... Picked up Internet Plays OXPS, WBMD, CHINA.... Picked up Alternative Power Plays ESLR and ENER.... Picked up Momentum Plays TGC, FUEL... Picked up Casino RIV (That makes 10 liesure gaming stocks on Tues and I added PENN and STN today (For a total of 12 for WED)) Picked up TIE since I have the protective puts till April expiration Picked up Semi MFG for a good AMD quarter BTUI, SPSN, SMDI, DTLK and some oversold GLW Picked up Biotechs AVM and NVAX both of which I had sold about 10 days ago.. Very happy with my performance, but I never got to leave the computers....It really didn't feel like I was on Vacation.... Any way I got yesterday's sheet ready and should have today's in just a few minutes......
Cost average man do you run a hedge fund or something becouse this is way to many comanies to own just for retail investor?
It's truly a day of celebration!!!! The ANOMALY goes through 12MIL ($12,018,276.59)!!!! And I was going to go to CASH/BONDS at 10 MIL.....I Guess it was a great thing that the yields on AAA rated bonds look dismal....And of course the FED is raising rates.... 2006 Performance 67.79%.....BOOYA Todays ADV=186 Todays DEC=69 Todays UNCH=3 215K DAY International= 43% Domestic=47% Miner/GOLD/SILVER=9.4% I took it easy today just sat back and watched for the most part... BOUGHT CASINOS PENN and STN BOUGHT Corn/Ethanol play ANDE BOUGHT RAIL Equipment Producer TRN BOUGHT Industrial GDI BOUGHT Steel CHAP BOUGHT Retailer EZPW BOUGHT TURKEY FUND TKF (Turkey is the gateway to Europe/A Trade Station that is growing) Yea, I even got back in the green ($7000) on NEU.....Had to close most of that position out today.....If you remember it was 300 shares @52 and 600 shares @48 and yesterday another 2400 shares @42.25 (That is DOLLAR COSTING to get back in the green if I have ever seen it.) ------CLOSED 2300 shares today at 46.25 today on the bounce back....I'm glad that ride is over with... Why do I have this many positions? HMMMM.....I don't see any point in letting mutual funds run my money.....Also, I try to have a few position in each market that I'm in (Minimize firm specific risk to the portfolio of each market)......I enjoy learning about a vast array of companies.....Most of the time I know what I'm investing in before I purchase, but sometimes I'm a monkey throwing darts....I also never want to worry about trying to get rid of shares.....There would be some serious slippage If I was trying to pull out 500K of some small cap tech company.....Having this many medium size positions, I really never have to worry about their being a taker when I want out of a position....Is it alot of work for one man.....YEA, but I'm retired and only spend about 4 hours every night after the market closes setting up limit sells, stop losses, re entry points to previously closed positions, watchlist for Increasing RT sector list, watchlist for big % movers, weekly momentum list, oversold list, Stocks reporting this week, and some other screeners I already have programmed... I have a nice size organized folder of many equities that my favorite fund holds and I'm always watching these to find an entry point for a trade/investment... $COSTAverageMAN
$Costaverageman, Thanks for the insights into your meathod. It sure works well for you. It takes a special person to add to a position on the way down twice. I have read many times to only add to a winner. It seems that you can add to a winner or to a loser just as long as you only risk a small amount. Limiting risk and slippage is a great benefit of all the many positions that you take.
FROM VECTOR VEST THE TRUTH CHART. (Back in MARCH 2003 So OLD but USEFUL) Geopolitical concerns have dominated investor's attention for the last few months, causing stock prices to wither and, more recently, soar on expectations of a quick victory in Iraq. The primary benefit of an easy win over Iraq is that it would eliminate a major factor inflicting pain on the market. Unfortunately, it will not solve the market's problems. That's up to the economy. As you know, stock value is driven by earnings, inflation and interest rates. Value rises when earnings go up and inflation and interest rates decline. Typically, a strong economy leads to rising earnings, which is good, and rising inflation and interest rates, which are bad. So investors are constantly balancing these factors against each other. With three factors, each of which can move up or down, there are eight combinations. This array of combinations is called the "Truth Chart." It appears as follows: Case--- Earnings---Inflation----Interest--- Prices---Comments 1. Up Up Down Up Bull Market Begins 2. Up Down Down Up Bull Market Thrives 3. Up Down Up Up Rarely Happens 4. Up Up Up Up Bull Market Ends 5. Down Up Up Down Bear Market Begins 6. Down Down Up Down Rarely Happens 7. Down Down Down Down Bear Market Prevails 8. Down Up Down Down Bear Market Ends Case (2) reflects the best of all worlds, a rare combination of a strong economy with rising earnings, falling inflation and interest rates. This is the so called "Goldie Locks" scenario. It prevailed from January 1995 to October 1997. This happy scene was rudely interrupted in October 1997 by the "Asian Currency Crisis," which sent earnings, inflation and interest rates tumbling and created the Case (7) scenario. Case (7) did not last long, however, since inflation began to rise from extremely low levels in July 1998. Enter Case (8). Dr. Greenspan lowered interest rates in rapid succession in October 1998, giving the market a tremendous boost. The world economies began to recover shortly thereafter, causing short-term interest rates to begin rising. Earnings also began to turn North in January 1999, enter Case (3). Case (1), one in which earnings and inflation are rising while interest rates are falling, is the usual combination of factors which fosters Bull markets. Case (3) rarely happens. Although Dr. Greenspan said he was fighting "supply-demand imbalances," he began raising interest rates in August 1999, bringing rise to Case (4). Investors, flush with success from the Bull Market, continued to push stock prices higher and higher, even though Dr. Greenspan continued to raise interest rates. The Fed always wins this battle. Case (4) prevailed from mid-1999 to October 2000, when earnings peaked. Enter Case (5). Case (5) lasted from October 2000 until January 2001 when Dr. Greenspan began lowering interest rates. The economy went into recession in March 2001, and Case (6) never happened. Once the economy weakened and earnings started to go down, Case (7) occurred again. In 2001, Sir Alan lowered interest rates again and again. He ignited an auto and housing buying spree, although the economy remained weak. Inflation has been rising for several months now and earnings are not. We are in a Case (8) scenario and looking for the end of the Bear market. The war rally is nice, but the new Bull market will not get rolling until earnings begin to rise again. Yes, we have heard it over and over that earnings are rising. But are they? Next week, I'll tell you more about the Truth Chart. FROM VECTOR VEST TODAY 4/13/2006 THE CASE 4 WALL OF WORRY. The Case 4 Bull Market Scenario, as described in the Truth Chart, (see my essays of 03/21/03 and 03/28/03), is one in which earnings, inflation and interest rates are all rising. It is by far the most challenging of the eight market scenarios shown in the Truth Chart. In this scenario, the economy is strong, earnings are great, but the day of reckoning is on the horizon. While it is described as the scenario which marks the end of bull markets, Case 4 scenarios can go on for a long time. This one started on May 7, 2004 or 23 months ago. When will it end? To answer this question, let's examine each of its key factors: Earnings, Inflation and Interest Rates. First quarter corporate profits are expected to rise more than 10% Y-O-Y. Therefore, it seems reasonable to expect stock prices to continue to go up if earnings have been going up. But that's not the way the game is played. Investors worry because they discount the future, not the past. They constantly look for things that may affect future profits and start selling stocks even before earnings actually start turning downward. They want to get out at the top of the earnings cycle and often give false alarms. That's why we need to be very watchful of earnings data. Our Investment Climate graph of S&P 500 earnings continues to show a steady rise in earnings, but its trend indicator has been essentially flat since last November. This suggests a decrease in earnings momentum, and that's not good. But it's too early to hit the panic button. Inflation and interest rates have been hitting multi-year highs lately and this has given many investors the jitters. Generally speaking, CPI inflation is not considered to be a serious problem until it reaches 5% or more. It hit a ten plus year high of 4.70% last October, but came down to 3.60% last month. So inflation is getting dicey, but is not dangerous just yet. I'm amazed that high oil prices haven't impacted the CPI more than reported so far, but I have a deep suspicion the number is rigged anyway. Here's a number that isn't rigged, the Fed Funds rate. It will be a problem if it goes above 5%. It's at 4.75% now and is virtually certain to be raised to 5% at the next FOMC meeting. However, the 90 Day T-Bill, which we track, closed at 4.58% today. The Fed doesn't usually get ahead of T-Bills too often, so they may, just may, stop at 5% for a while. This would be terrific news for stock investors, but one never knows what the Fed will do. My observation has been that they tend to raise interest rates too high and cause recessions. Now that's something to worry about. If you follow the news, there are a million other things to worry about, but don't pay too much attention to them. Keep your eye on earnings, inflation and interest rates, especially inflation. It will determine what the Fed does with interest rates. This, in turn, will determine the fate of the economy and earnings. Knowing where we're at in this mad scramble is the challenge of climbing The Case 4 Wall of Worry. I hope this helps for the years of investing ahead us all!!!!! Excel will be ready soon.... $COSTAverageMAN
March 28, 2003 THE EARNINGS INDICATOR. Last week, I introduced you to the "The Truth Chart." This chart provides an array of the eight possible combinations of earnings, inflation and interest rates which may exist in Bull and Bear markets. We used it last week to chronicle the rise and fall of the market from January 1995 to the present time. As shown below, we are now in a Case (8) scenario. Case Earnings Inflation Interest Prices Comments 1. Up Up Down Up Bull Market Begins 2. Up Down Down Up Bull Market Thrives 3. Up Down Up Up Rarely Happens 4. Up Up Up Up Bull Market Ends 5. Down Up Up Down Bear Market Begins 6. Down Down Up Down Rarely Happens 7. Down Down Down Down Bear Market Prevails 8. Down Up Down Down Bear Market Ends There are several aspects of this chart which should be noted. First of all, it shows that no single factor dictates the fate of the market. For example, it shows that Bull markets begin when earnings are going up and interest rates are going down, i.e., Case(1). Bull markets end, Case (4), while earnings are still rising, but interest rates are also rising. The only difference between Cases (1) and (4) is that interest rates were falling in Case (1) and rising in Case (4). Therefore, it takes a combination of rising earnings and falling interest rates to ignite and sustain a Bull market. It is also worth noting that combinations of rising inflation and falling interest rates as shown in Case (1) do not last very long. Although Dr. Greenspan has been rather cavalier about inflation for some time now, interest rates have a way of going up when the economy strengthens and inflation rears its ugly head. Be that as it may, the thing we need to see for this Bear market to end is sure evidence of rising earnings. As you probably know, we track inflation and interest rates each week in the Investment Climate section of the Views. The data on these factors has been easy to obtain and indisputable because it reflects the past. Not so with earnings. The information we needed in regard to earnings is forecasted, and has been subject to considerable error. How many times have we been led to believe that earnings were on the rise when, in fact, they were not? Today's Wall Street Journal, for example, featured a front page item stating that profits improved in the fourth quarter. That's nice, but the article within revealed that earnings were down 4.0% for the year. A popular newsletter writer claims that earnings of the 900 companies followed by Business Week were down 35% last year. So what are we to believe? The answer has been right here before us. Yes, we're going to begin tracking earnings of the S&P 500 companies as forecasted by VectorVest. We'll be using the 50-day moving average of forecasted S&P 500 earnings as shown in the summary graph of the S&P 500 WatchList. This data will be analyzed and published in the Investment Climate as The Earnings Indicator.
The Anomaly just keeps ticking to the upside...OUTPERFORMING DAILY +.58% Portfolio GAIN Today (70K) TODAY ADV=156 TODAY DEC=103 TODAY UNCH=9 2006 Portfolio Performance=68.77% Not much I can Say about all this..... I'm pretty shocked!!! Cut my losses early today on GE and AMD, but I kept some of the position on for both....I grabbed 2 more Casinos today NYNY and MCRI (14 Total Casinos Now)...I doubt they are all best of Breed, but when a sector is moving why not....I never took GOL (Which I sold on Tues) off my watchlist and it paid off today....It was around 10 am when I realized it was really begining to move....I bought It....So I checked TAM and CPA (Also S. American Airliners) to see what was going on over their...I bought TAM it was moving also......I started some quick research and found out about how BRAZIL's largest Airliner which is in bankruptcy and that the Gov't. locked up this companies pension....Meaning they can't dive into the pension to finance operations while in bankruptcy....Basically they are toast.....Great news for TAM and GOL which currently fly at about 67% occupancy, I imagine market share will be going higher for these carriers shortly....ALSO I think it's kind of funny how I own Airliners as an oil hedge and it was high oil prices that cause these two carriers to jump +14% today....KIND OF FUNNY HOW THAT WORKED OUT...... I bought an Insurance company MTG (I was lacking Ins. exposure/ and good looking chart) I bought Brazil Petroleum company PZE I bought/Increased position Canadian Oil Sands play CWPC (For a little day trade) I bought Petroleum FTO after it's recent retracement I bought another Industrtial DXPE (It was moving nicely today and another that was never taking off the watchlist) I bought an ethanol play STKL (Not very familiar with how they fit into the ethanol picture, but they have some patented technology that could be very useful with ethanol production)...I'm just now learning, But I own it now!!! I was a monkey throwing a dart with REY (Just a technical move)....But I'm learning about this computer software company currently.... S. KOREA, CHINA, Singapore, and Taiwan are really moving!!! Check out the short term INDIA correction going on currently....OUCH....-6.5% in 3 days it will be interesting to see if they rebound back tonight or if they break through 11000 and go lower.....BTW I was selling INDIA early this week....BOOYA Enjoy the DAY OFF everyone!!!!!! $COSTAverageMAN
Cost, Thanks for this most inspirational journal. How many hours would you say that you spend per week on your research and monitoring? I wonder if you could give a breakdown on the ratio of where your ideas come from - i.e. 20% general reading, 40% watching your favorite fund, 30% technical screens, etc. Gol had that nice move sparked by an article in the WSJ on Thursday morning on their competitor going out of business.
This is how I wish every relationship with my stocks would start out two days after I buy it....... This is what a GAP UP should look like!!!!! Gardner Denver, Inc. Increases First Quarter 2006 Earnings Guidance Monday, April 17, 2006 9:36 AM - PR Newswire QUINCY, Ill., April 17, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Gardner Denver, Inc. (GDI) announced today that, based on information currently available, diluted earnings per share for the three months ended March 31, 2006 are expected to be in a range of $1.13 to $1.17, compared to its previous guidance of $0.65 to $0.75. The significant improvement in diluted earnings per share for the three-month period is primarily attributable to increased shipments as a result of higher than expected orders and manufacturing improvements that resulted in increased output. Some additional outsourcing of fluid transfer product manufacturing also contributed to the improvement in revenues and diluted earnings per share. The Company was able to leverage its fixed costs to realize strong flow through profitability on the incremental revenues. This leverage, coupled with lower than expected selling and administrative expenses, resulted in operating margin expansion. $COSTAverageAN