RNAI (+18%) Sold 1/2 @7.35 10 Day Chart (Glad I own this bad boy, but I been taking some off the table) Sirna Therapeutics, Inc. Formerly known as Ribozyme Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. The Group's principal activity is to develop therapeutics based on RNA interference technology ('RNAi'). It also manufactures oligonucleotides for use by collaborators and customers to support their therapeutic discovery operations. The Group is a biotechnology Company that uses its expertise in nucleic acid technology to develop products that target human diseases. The Group is conducting research and clinical development with product candidates in the areas of Hepatitis C Virus infection, Macular Degeneration and Solid Tumor Cancers, including breast cancer. The Group has corporate collaborations with Chiron Corporation, Archemix, atugen AG and Geron Corporation. Trademarks include ANGIOZYME (TM), HEPTAZYME(TM), HERZYME(TM) and HepBzyme(TM). The Group also has license to use 180 issued or allowed patents relating to nucleic acid technology and has filed more than 60 patents on RNAi.
Off to lunch.... Thinking about a Calzone, but that's so dangerous leave the computers for like 1 and a half hour's on a Friday....Well I doubt we correct this afternoon..I'll gamble on it...I'm hungary.. WoW XNSX has been on FIRE!!!!! Mid Febuary I was screaming it at $1.05.. 1.77 today..
Just got back from lunch turned on CNBC......Cramer pumps WPSC in "STOP TRADING".....I swear the guy just says everything I buy the day after I do it....Going to be another GREEN DAY...The anomoly continues.......I should of worked on Wall Street, Instead I was a Blue Collar, but I understood FV=$(1+R)^t..... What was that DCN filed Bankruptcy....HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....DCN my only Short in the past two years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (100% short record....I think I can go to my grave with that record. $CostAverageMAN
MBAY Closes Up 33%... Man I can find the momentum (sometimes), before most...Had a few drinks with My Calzone...Sorry for being a cocky sh#t, but This has just been one hell of a year.. Hope you enjoy the Journal and feel free to post comments/suggestions...
Thanks for a great journal. I have been watching and learning. But I am confused on what you mean when you use the word 'anomaly'. Dictionary defines as anomalous, Deviating from a common rule;abnormal;irregularity. Can you explain when you use this word how it applies to stocks - or the market? Deviating from what? Thanks again for sharing.
I call it an Anomoly, because no portfolio with this many positions should be outperforming major indexes in 2006 by close to 20%.. This happened last year when I had a 55% 2005 return on a huge portfolio... 2 things can cause this..I am either in the top 5% of the best stock pickers in the world (highly unlikely)...Or just dam LUCKY!! I believe the later of the two, but When you just keep nailing them one after another you start to feel like number 1 could be possible.. $CostAverageMAN
How one can view a market when It's over bought...(not sayin it is, just a funny example!!!) I look at the Market as a "Ponzi Scheme", Ponzi said he could double your money in a year. one man believed him..Ponze then spent that year looking for 2 new people to believe him..he found them, took their money and at the end of the first year.. the first man got twice the amount he gave Ponzi...Word broke out around town that Ponzi could double your money and everyone before you new it was giving Ponzi money and for years he kept doubling the EARLY INVESTORS money...A PYRAMID SHEME...Ponzi had so much money that he left town and lived a luxurious life.. Moral of the story.... lets hope your not the man with the paper when the buyers disappear on speculative sh#t.... I did like my little story and It can apply to the market...and the illiquidity of a market during a correction.... (Hence the ILL can make you sick not being able to get out of a position as $$ disappears similiar to light in a black hole) ..... (Not saying we are going there) ///Corrections are kind of like "Ponzi" skipping out of town.... leaving the late investors/speculators with the HOPE that one day he will come back and just give them their $$$ back...EX: JDSU, LU, CIEN...If these apply to you... I'm sorry and hope you dollar costed like 20 times on the way down... You may just break even soon(It's been along 6 years though) Don't forget to adjust for "inflation and risk free rate"....Sorry thats just MEAN.. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AKA "BLACK MONDAY" When: October 21, 24, and 29, 1929 Where: USA ---A string of terrible days led to a more than 40% drop in the market from the beginning of September 1929 to the end of October 1929. In fact, the market continued to decline until July 1932 when it bottomed out, down nearly 90% from its 1929 highs. --------------"Ponzi skips town"--------------- ---Americans were as bullish as ever. The stock market was guaranteed to make everyone rich as the first world war had been won, and industrialization was resulting in previously-unimaginable luxuries. It was a good time to be American. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE CRASH OF 1987 When: October 19th, 1987 Where: USA ---The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: 508.32 points, 22.6%, or $500 billion lost in one day. The largest one-day percentage drop in history. ---This was the crash that everyone expected but could not justify because of the work of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC--which was established for the prevention of further crashes and fraudulent practices that had infected the stock market--was doing a fine job after the war and finally coaxed tentative investors back into the market in the sixties. "What the little guy is back--heard that recently" The SEC, however, COULD TAKE INVESTORS TO THE PROPER INFORMATION BUT COULDN'T MAKE THEM THINK. In the early sixties and seventies, investors looked not at the value of the company but at the appeal of its public image and the vernacular used to describe it. The following kinds of over-embellished company sketches would attract the public eye. Investors were infatuated with these companies, which somehow represented some higher idea and purpose. EX. TODAY "GOOG","AAPL","HANS", "NTRI" Fortunately, the newbie chairman of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, was around to help fight off a depression by preventing the insolvency of commercial and investment banks. "What was that we corrected after a new Fed Chairman" ((Not saying these companies aren't good just some people LOAD THE BOAT UP not knowing anything, but they are talking about it on CNBC)) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Asian Crash (or Crises) When: 1989-2004 Where: Southeast Asia but primarily Japan Percentage Lost From Peak to Bottom: 63.5% as of 2003. ---The Japanese have an uncanny ability to enhance what they adopt from the Americans (market economy). Sadly, the Japanese have picked up on crashes as well and made theirs a lot bigger than any one historical American crash. The crash of the Nikkei has morphed into a massive, surly bear that attacks any signs of recovery. It all started with the a boom/bull market of the 1980s. "Just don't get stuck with depreciating Paper" -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Dot-Com Crash When: March 11th, 2000 to October 9th, 2002 Where: Silicon Valley (for the most part) Percentage Lost From Peak to Bottom: The Nasdaq Composite lost 78% of its value as it fell from 5046.86 to 1114.11. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Florida Real Estate Craze When: 1926 Where: Florida The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: Land that could be bought for $800,000 could, within a year, be resold for $4 million before crashing back down to pre-boom levels. The prices were so inflated that to buy a condo-style property in 1926, you would've had to pay the same as you would now have to pay for a luxury home in the guard-gated communities in Miami ($4,500,000)--without adjusting for inflation! "SOUNDS FAMILIAR" As hindsight is always 20/20, we should take the time to highlight what we can learn from these past tragedies. First off, we should point out that most market volatility is all our fault. In reality, people create most of the risk in the market place by inflating stock prices beyond the value of the underlying company. When stocks are flying through the stratosphere like rockets, it is usually a sign of a bubble. That's not to say that stocks cannot legitimately enjoy a huge leap in value, but this leap should be justified by the prospects of the underlying companies, not just by a mass of investors following each other. The unreasonable belief in the possibility of getting rich quick is the primary reason people get burned by market crashes. Remember that if you put your money into investments that have a high potential for returns, you must also be willing to bear a high chance of losing it all. Another observation we should make is that regardless of our measures to correct the problems, the time between crashes has decreased. We had centuries between fiascos, then decades, then years. We cannot say whether this foretells anything dire for the future, but the best thing you can do is keep yourself educated, informed, and well-practiced in doing research.
I enjoy the journal I like calzones as well. Your ponzi story is very in the money, after trading for awhile, I have noticed, if you ain't protected some way from the market's fluctuactions, you'll be taken out sooner or later.