Want to bet Euro won't drop below 1.48 within next few days ?

Discussion in 'Options' started by ramaTrade, Dec 4, 2009.

  1. The full circle post is now complete, time to get long euros.
     
    #51     Dec 18, 2009
  2. Now long futures at avg price 14276
     
    #52     Dec 18, 2009
  3. Seriously ? No hedge ? and Prepare to hold over weekends ?
     
    #53     Dec 18, 2009
  4. I trade size I can tolerate, a stop will trail when needed. When Globex opens I reconsider everything.
     
    #54     Dec 18, 2009
  5. Lightening up a bit, taking some off. 14330
     
    #55     Dec 18, 2009
  6. Out of all of it.
     
    #56     Dec 18, 2009
  7. I spent some of my gain from past two weeks to buy some Jan 1.4 puts right before close. Also exit from the puts spread.

    Because it was put spread, I did not fully capture those 250 point drop.
     
    #57     Dec 18, 2009
  8. chad_17

    chad_17

    So you're a proper Euro Bear now? From selling puts to buying 1.4 puts? lol I hope you're right buddy, cuz I'm looking at a bearish put spread as well on the Euro. How are you trading it?
     
    #58     Dec 20, 2009
  9. From hindsight, I should have initiated outright long puts instead of puts spread on Wednesday. Initiating a put spread on Friday is a better trade than outright long put.

    Now I only have long puts left in my position. The time decay is about $33 per contract now and $77 ten days later. Based on the options lab's calculation, anytime before or on Jan 1, 2010, if Euro ever touches 1.41, I am going to make 50% from my position, regardless time decay. If Euro drops to 1.4, I will at least make 100%. As of iv, when euro drops, the iv at least won't drop, if not go up a little bit, for the past two weeks, the iv for put has been fluatuating between 9.0% and 12%.
     
    #59     Dec 20, 2009
  10. Euro cannot hold up even when the GDP number is bad. The put IV is dropping a little bit.
     
    #60     Dec 22, 2009