Wallace Euro Trades

Wallace, we all use different methods, but perhaps you would be interested to have a look at GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF on their weekly time frame running TRIX set to 15, they are all suggesting that USD will gain pointing to DX 88 as a likely target, I still see EUR at 1.2-1.15

 

JSSPMK: thanks but I don't use lagging indicators
so far as the DX's concerned, it could be going to 200+, and the Euro nonexistent




Thursday Jan 6 session: 4:30pm

today ought to be something of an up session, and to some extent a setup for the
Friday NFP release which probably means a Lot of sideways
a key level for Friday will be 1.2987 , if the price drops that low during the session -
a very strong NFP - it's the Nov 30 LC, after which is 1.2956

upside target may be 1.3192 ? by 02:00 ? 3:00 ? then a decline ? to 1.3097 ?
however I'm not going too far out with what'll happen today

the Monster Employment Index is out at 6am EST and the Jobless Claims at 8:30
which'll probably mean bouncy-bouncy and the price possibly going down to meet
the releases, not much in the EU releases except the Italians have another holiday

 

Thursday Jan 6 session: 2:40am

the price is weaker than I thought. wondering if it'll be run back up to 1.3149

currently the price is sitting on the crest of the next void, 1.3110 with the next level
at 1.3030 , tho possible temporary prices supports around 1.3085 and 1.3055 and
if the two employment reports are very positive the likelyhood is the Sell continues
unabated into the close, perhaps bar 4H20:00

just about to post and see the price has broken down, look to 1.3085 'area' 1.3078
for temp support, possible 1.3055 for the Monster release ?

 

FWIW

“Currency movements are really a function of global liquidity trends now,” said Taylor, whose firm oversees a total of $8.4 billion. “That means the dollar and what the Fed does is very, very important. Also, we have Europe still looking for money, with the euro still really, really terrible.”
The euro may fall below parity with the dollar this year, Taylor said in an interview with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” The Australian dollar and Brazilian real will extend their gains, according to Taylor."

John Taylor on Bloomberg

 

Advisement

after today's posts, I will no longer be updating this thread as I have done

I'm glad I started the thread and have learnt a lot because of it, but find for several
reasons it's too distracting, time consuming and from mpov, requires full time Euro
hours to do price/time targeting justice

what I will do is post a single daily D 4H Up Down note each day about 3pm PST
that might, include a price and time target range, but no additional analysis

. . . . .

I should be starting a new Journal thread for Day-to-Days 'portfolio' trading —
'should be' based on what I discover this weekend when I look at all of Alpari NY's
MT4 demo pairs - 25 of them including gold and silver
presuming I go ahead with the journal I'll post the address here on Sunday

. . . . .

Friday Jan 7 session: 9:30pm

have to say the eurusd has been weaker than I thought, dropping thru what on the
chart would appear to be support levels, mind you running corrections showed the
weakness/power to the downside

currently the price is around the 1.2987 level and before it started to go down was
thinking it might go to the 1.3030-40 area; it's possible it still could since there's a
lot of time before the NFP release, and what else is there to do ?

downside targets: around 1.2900 , but a s/r band at 1.2882-1.2834 suggests the
price could penetrate the 1.29 and drop onto or into those levels, perhaps 1.2800
a possible bottom time is bar 20:00 , however more as a correction than a base as
there's the likelyhood of the downside following thru into the Monday session


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . Consensus . . Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls . . . 39,000 . . . 160,000 . . . . 98,000 to 225,000
Unemployment Rate . 9.8% . . . . . 9.7% . . . . . . 9.6% to 9.8%

there is tho the symmetry of the current price matching the Nov 30 low, and creating
what appears to be the right leg of a base
were the NFP Low, the eurusd is going to hammer up and take out a Lot of Stops
and as large as this month's NFP may be, next month's will be none to minus

 

decided not to start the DtDs trading yet but concentrate on the intraday/scalp only


first Oanda trade at 9:42am pst this morning, currently 12:14pm and the spread is
only 5pips.
price topped at 1.2921 , low at 1.2861 , currently 1.2872 - - Friday's close 1.2907

price rallying to 1.2892 and beyond, will probably open flat

Monday Jan 10 session: Sunday 2:35pm

'Germany and France want to press Portugal to seek a bailout in order to stop Spain
and Belgium becoming the next euro crisis casualties' and so it goes

there's a few levels not worth mentioning until the primary area of 1.2800 , however
I don't believe there's anything sufficient to rely on and a significant break may not
occur until the price has reached 1.2600

Major Sell continues

 

Tuesday Jan 11 session: 3:00pm

think I should lift that 'Major Sell' for the time, tho I don't imagine anyone reading this
thread needs me to tell them how to trade

price on the minutes tfs is out of the downtrend, not surprising since it was so steep
and swift, actually on the Daily too, never crossed the median

Is this a major base ?

it's a lopsided formation that's for sure, but has hit major time targets, so I guess the
Buy is on till the price says different
seems like the Portugese will slip the money on offer into their pocket, so as long
as nothing's heard from Italy and Spain, all is well in the EU ; ;

when the price gets thru 1.2965 it should fly a bit, then 1.2987 , some space and
that 1.3030 and so on Up till 1.3090 , 1.3111


Go Ducks !

 

Wednesday Jan 12 session: 4:00pm

the price as you know has been playing up to the 1.2987 level although I don't know
of any particular significance that level has, excepting the Nov 30 LC was 1.2980
I believe this session has the price on or just across some lines that might see an
acceleration beyond the 1.2987 , although that may be wishful conjecture
repeating, upside 1.3030 and big one up around 1.3090 , don't see any downside

 

geeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzze

my trading on Monday's session was fairly atrocious
most of the trades had been Sells and * had I completed a CL * would have known
the price Direction had changed , , , , , and would have set me up for Buys
so I redesigned the CL and now there's
7 lines of text - Session plus M - 15min tfs and
6 columns for system components plus
2 blank lines for notes and updating
fits the 5 trading sessions week on the one page, so now rather than entering info
into the wp and printing the page, I enter info from the charts onto the CL by hand
very calming process actually

but, 'the waves, the waves' were driving me CRAZY

but again, solved the problem ~ toot toot

Wallace Waves live, 'they're alive I tell ya'

thank keeeeeryst that's over

thought you'd like to know : )


Wednesday Jan 12 session: 8:00am

the rally may continue into the close
after 1.3090 it's 1.3110 , and there's a level of note at 1.3086

 

Thursday Jan 13 session: 3:50pm

rocking the baby now

those who've already drawn one know the price has stopped below the 50% rf level
of 1.3153 or so
the next levels are 1.3185 , 1.3218 - the rf 61 , and 1.3234 , 1.3258 , 1.3269
and again, the price is right up against, on or just crossing lines that could see the
price run, however it's more likely that a move would be a penetration then a retreat

BoE and ECB at 7/7:45am EST and Jobless Claims at 8:30 , consensus is 400 to
415k, but holiday-over layoffs should surely start boosting the numbers higher

wondering if the Europeans will take the price down, with a close up from any low
but this session 'might' be a down day