Thursday Dec 30 session: 9:00am will make this the last update for this session and it may serve for the opening of the Friday session - in case I'm still asleep with the presumption the price won't make a new high, has rather started a correction I'll suggest that the price will fall to 1.3220 or 1.3184 - strongish support levels, tho the price may dither in between them, until - anywhere between 22:10 and 00:00 and possibly some evidence of a base formation, the expectation being a new rally begins if the price moves primarily sideways then the low may only be around 1.3256 although a new daily high has been made, it doesn't necessarily negate a reversal formation - based on the 4H ; there could also be a larger correction down to 1.3190 or 1.3160 with the possibility then of a new rally to new highs, however it'll be during the next session that we may learn which of these various scenarios will play out
Friday Dec 31 session: 11:30pm the price has broken several resistance levels and doing running corrections in the direction of the trend, an obvious strong move notwithstanding the holiday week and still low volume on the 6E having broken the 1.3334 and 1.3365 resistance levels the next set are 1.3434 and 1.3462 , and these levels relate with the Dec 3 and 14 highs, and while those highs have yet to be reached and surpassed, the geometry of the current price has actually passed them suggesting a Lot more upside I don't have upside targets except those stated above; the price is so strong at this time it could keep going like the Energizer bunny and until the Dec 14 HH of 1.3497 is taken out I don't see a 'lengthy' correction occurring before next week
Friday Dec 31 session: 5:30am - last update this year the last HH passing the 1.3365 level to 1.3389 may have been one leg of correction that might see the price drop to . . . 1.3349 ? or back to the lower level 1.3334 and taking until bar 15:45 to do so, although 15:05 is also a possibility , then another charge ? another interpretation might be a top is in and a major correction has begun, if not a change of trend to Down Happy and Prosperous New Year â and reviving Polar Bear Swim
Monday Jan 3 session: Sun 1:30pm there's two major scenarios for the eurusd: - major Up trend, the price will equal or break the previous 1.43 high - major correction, the price will turn Down and break the 1.30 low I favor the correction scenario but for how much longer and higher is the price going ? this week has several notable economic releases - Fed Minutes, ECB, and on Friday an expected huge increase over last month's NFP, plus Mr Bernake testifying the euro didn't completely match the $'s move last week but there's the possibility of it climbing some more until Wed/Thur, maybe making 1.3510 of course if the $ doesn't hold its current levels and breaks down then the euro is going to fly regardless of the NFP and we'll see 1.36-7-8 , but still a correction at this time Oanda's low is 1.3328 current 1.3348 so once the session opens it May open down and that Might be the completion of a correction, but might require a few more hours to complete I still see upside and believe the overall trade is still a Buy
Possible 2011 projection based on EW. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3049971>
Monday Jan 3 session: 00:00am the current correction is I believe of the whole Dec 23-31 move, and will possibly go down to the 1.3234 area, possibly just above it ? - 1.3239 ? a larger question remains 'has the uptrend topped ?' what I should have done last Friday is said 'correction coming - possible top' so 'I still see upside and believe the overall trade is still a Buy' is the wrong thing to have written the trade is a Sell, regardless if it's a short term correction or, what may turn out to be a major turn Down an additional support level is 1.3195 area, which doesn't have as much price support as the 1.3234 level, and it's possible 1.3195 is the 'make-or-break' level that make = correction while break = topped
Monday Jan 3 session: 6:30am price has held up quite well, but it's likely to drop again to either form a base around 1.3269 or drop to the lower level of 1.3234 , maybe 1.3195 Sell is on 6:40am oh ! I'd better add since I'll be asleep at the Close/Open that if the price bases at 1.3269 in particular, it may then start to rally back up to the 1.3420s for what may be a reversal formation
Tuesday Jan 4 session: 3:00am Everyone's back at work Fed Minutes will be released at 2pm EST +/- expecting the price to begin to decline in the next couple of hours into the close maybe to 1.3282 , 1.3269 however, I've had a tendency to expect the price to correct a lot lower than it has in fact done, so higher levels are 1.3365 and 1.3334 this decline may or may not complete until bar 4H00:00 or end of it - into 4:00 , and this may then be a correction prior to a new high there's also the possibility of the completion of a reversal formation, with this current leg going Up for a few hours rather than declining, so Buys are still in place
Wednesday Jan 5 session: 8:15pm not surprisingly the Daily is registering as a down day the 4H04:00 bar is on the edge of adjusted support; will the price hold the 1.3269 support level or drop thru it, probably drop. the next level is 1.3234 where there's also prices support, then the vacuum down to 1.3149 , although there is as you know a lot of price support throughout that band, but who knows before hand if the price will step down primly or plunge the 60 is out of support but could rally a bit for the next couple of hours, but it's the 4H08:00 bar that'll have the tale to tell if a new rally's to begin needless to say the $ continues to rally off major support the Dec 31-Jan 4 formation is quite symetrical with yesterday's HH almost touching the 1.3434 level, but that's all it did the decline so far could still be a correction leg; however the formation could also be The top of the Nov 30-Jan 4 formation, and as such, means a Major Sell
Wednesday Jan 5 session: 5:45am the price has now dropped thru the 60 and, 4H support lines, is into the void, close to the first support ? level of 1.3149 , the second 1.3110 , a band which has quite a lot of prices support ? and too below the lower level the ADP was a massive 297,000 gain for December - definition and chart: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://anasdaq.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=nasdaq so Friday's NFP Consensus of 140,000 - previous 39,000 is a strong possibility I should think the price will continue down to 1.3110 and pick some buying into the Thursday session