for Dec 10 session DaytoDays trading M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Down 60: Down anyone seen a trend ? when the Germany data was released the price was bouncing up and down like a kid being told they were going to Disney World - should have first checked to see what news/economic reports were to be released. after another look, am back on the idea of trading the 1m Analysis: 3:00pm attow the price is sitting on the 4H lower m61 and lower rising sec line intersected by falling sec line and I expect the price to now continue Down. the white cf 50 at 1.3203 is a first resistance then low of 1.3164 sitting on a rising outer sec line - to 1.3194 - 1.3176 is the black pf 1.38 - which once passed through should see some free fall, the white 61 cf is around 1.3149 next week's low target is first the Nov 30 1.30 area, then we'll see the only alternate I have to add is if the price stops around 1.32 then rallies back up to the 1.33+ area creating an unnecessary reversal formation, no fundamentals to suggest it happening, unless 'they' want a clear run at the Sell to start next week
for Dec 13 session DaytoDays trading M: Down W: Up D: Down ? 4H: Down ? 60: Down ? Week Ahead basically an Up week Analysis: noon this is an either or call, the price can go either way, nothing to bias one direction or the other - except the Tuesday FOMC meeting so what I'll guess is the Mon session will see the price rally, Tue close down then after the release - 11:15am PST the price rallies to close an up week, then down next week which will be Christmas week on the Saturday if the price were to close up on Tue I'd have to think the Fed were going to raise the FFR, except most don't expect a rise till late next year, even 2012, although if this is a w 4 , it's going on a lot longer than I expected so . but . or as I look at the charts and write this I'm beginning to wonder if it's a w 1 2 and this week will see the start of w 3 of a B leg reversal that's going back up to the 1.40s . that Nov 16-22 correction was very sleek and there's no more PIIGS crises at hand - that would make the $ rally w 4 or A of a base that drops into the 74s on the Weekly I was thinking the MA 1 C of the last 3 weeks was b of c to come - this week which would complete w4; it could still, but now I'm thinking it's a base and thus why the price will go Up let's say the price goes up to the lower m50 , around 1.3270 or cf 23 of 1.3310 ? then begins to fall after the European open, or will it hold till the Tuesday session ? the Nov 30-Dec 3 cf has the 61 around 1.3140 and 76 at 1.3074 as possible lows for the price to travel to on Tuesday, $ to the 81 area ? 81.5 ? chart: partial 4H - Many lines !!
hi Wallace, according to my own analysis, Weekly and 4H, 1H are clearly down as is monthly. If we close below 1.3249 by tomorrow that would make daily down too (this one is still up for me) That would make everything down and means we would be heading for new lows. We did make a bearish engulfing last week on the weekly so the big trend for me is still down. Just my point of view.
for Dec 14 session DaytoDays trading M: Down W: Up ? D: Down 4H: Down 60: Down aaah the curse of sleep and 24 hour markets - stay awake M-F and sleep the 48 hr weekend ? what method exists that would tell you that the price would move 250 points during the next session ? I don't mean some educated guess, but set of rules, algorithm exact method. I can get so far with a couple of methods that say 'up', and a couple of fibos that provide exact levels, but nothing that predicts/states that there Will be a 250 point movement. I do though have a B/S method that ignores 'predictive analysis', where one simply holds a position until the opposite signal appears and one enters a new trade in the opposite direction. yesterday's session has really got me thinking about composing 'absolute system rules' which don't yet exist with my new system. have you got yours ? Analysis: 2:50pm the best I can say is Down. yesterday's hc forms what could be a reversal formation, and a complex alternate correction after the Nov 16-22 , suggesting an eventual new low past the Nov month end 1.29
the move this morning was impressive. I missed this trade but looking back 32ish was holding teu-wed-thurs-friday-sun. im calling it pretty strong support for now.
it was a tricky move. in my short session anticipated direction correctly and buying only but still 3 small losers. thats when i wish i was trading off 5 min or more .... also predicted strong move due to congestion, gap, strong china closing and DAX congestion.
for Dec 15 session DaytoDays trading M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Down 60: Down obvious I've been well out of synch again with what's going on with the price on the 4H, the formation that began on Dec 3 H20:00 continuing down gave me a lot of trouble interpreting, which in fact I didn't. what I missed was the Dec 6 H10:00 bar to Dec 13 H00:00 which was a w 0-1-2 , and makes the Dec 3-13 five waves down. I just re-labeled my system 4H chart correctly and it all adds up now - of course it would - wouldn't it. a major problem shows its face here because my system eliminates Elliott Wave. the conflict I have is that I've used EW for about 30 years, it's programmed into my sub-conciousness and operates automatically as soon as I look at Any chart. my system and what may be the final component of it - aside from learning how to trade with it and 'rules' - only came into being after starting this thread. so far as the 4H is concerned, the down changed to up at bar H08:00 , bar H07:00 on the 60m, H03:45 on the 15m , althought the smaller timeframes have of course several waves within the higher timeframes before a B/S signal appears there. the conflict, problem is that You wouldn't of course have any idea what I was talking about if I used my system terminology for B/S signals, so I'm still using EW interp- retation/language here and elsewhere, and while I still use fibos, since my system is basically a green light Buy, red light Sell system, don't use price/time targeting, or perhaps should say don't Need to use p/t targeting, although it's available, though superfluous ? redundant ? haven't been using it that way so not sure, but here's an example: one component of my system that can be used for targeting indicates the Daily will go Down - is a Sell, or perhaps I should say, I interpret the component as a possible Sell on Wed, actually there's 3 components. marvellous. don't even know how many components I'm using, anyway we already know the price is off the 1.42+ h and can presume it'll continue down for some time. but the Daily signal will remain a Buy/Up for this Wed session unless it drops low enough to change the signal - the weekly for instance hasn't had a B/U signal since Oct 31 and the 60 for instance didn't change to a D/S until the H16:00 bar, while the component I'm referring to indicated a change prior to the hh, and the B/U on the 4H was at bar H04:00 although the green light didn't come on until the next bar individual bars can and do change from bar to bar, so it IS useful to know if there'll be a trend change so one can trade the trend not the individual bars, as well as an indication of the price continuing in that direction for xxx price/time so my inability to interpret the 4H formation was trying to EW the formation instead of just using my system, it's going to take a while . . . Analysis: 3:10pm EW wise I'd be saying 'abc w 4 complete, Down' while the Daily penetrated the upper 50 it closed close to the lower one inside a sec and the open has straddled back across it just above the 50 . presuming the price drops there may be some resistance around 1.3335, then 1.3280-1.33 ? - not exact as it's a median line, then the first of the 61s around 1.3270 , the lower about 1.3237 if a major drop, could see the price hit intersecting secs around 1.3150 , though not expected to drop that low in this session. see cfs from Dec 9-14 and Nov 30-14 otherwise, unless there's a reversal formation retry of the high, Down
w4 overlaps into w1 -> best i can see is a bunch of three's now on bigger time frame which will keep melting down
for Dec 16 session DaytoDays trading M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Down 60: Down as I was saying yesterday about the quantity of components in my system, that's in fact what was causing me the problem of trading the 1m - Too many components when I said I eliminated EW, I did, and in its place use 'Wallace Waves' earlier this year I discovered something that completely changed my perception of EW, completely disappearing the complications of linear EW theory and all those variables and attendant multiple interpretations, abcs, xyds, extentions and so on Wallace Waves have simplified wave analysis to the nth degree, but, were still just a little tooooo difficult to work with, then, 'hey presto !' my discovery of a few weeks ago which simplified Wallace Waves into an 'absolute' wave analysis method simple or not, there's just too many waves in the 1m chart to keep up with, to bother with wave analysis, so I have dropped the wave component from the 1m chart which has freed up a lot concentration, space and time to just look at the price and follow what is basically a single component method I do actually use the second component occasionally which is easily applied and as said, I still use fibos, but don't consider them a time sensitive issue since they only need be placed on the chart once, likewise applying channels isn't an issue I'm not sure yet whether or not I'll keep Wallace Waves in the higher timeframes, they're much easier of course to use there, 5m and up, but I've not as yet done any research to determine the benefit or not of wave analysis - even Wallace Waves ; unfortunately the tools I'm using in mt aren't available in fxt, which would better allow trading the 10sec chart, but the tools are available in nt and a couple of demo trades there have satisfied me of the tradeability of the 6E with my system on sub minute timeframes have to say how glad I am of that 4H formation, it Really cleared away the cobwebs Analysis: 3:30pm the last session closed the 60m on intersecting rising and falling secs, as well as cf and pfs - exact - and dropped thru the lower m60 (mislabeled on that last 4h chart) I don't see there's any reason for the price to stay up, unless it were to form the right shoulder of an H&S that may be a very large base completing on the 76s at any rate while the price may go back up above the lower 61 I don't expect it to hold there or rally higher - actually I've just cfed the 15m H16:15-H22:30 wave and the higher 61 is only a couple of pips higher than the 38 rf, so it's likely the price will go up to the 1.3270 area, as early as bar H03:00 ? or later into the 4H 04:00 ? then start Down ? overall I'm still with Down the only news now the Irish vote's passed is the US Unemployment claims later in the session
for Dec 16 session DaytoDays trading M: Down W: Down D: Down changing to Up ? 4H: Up ? 60: Up ? I made a couple of real trades last night for a total loss of 7 pips. the first based on the idea the price could be completing c of an abc and would rally to the m61 , it did not so I cut the loss -6 . - how come EW has stomped back into the room ? about 80ms later I entered a short, the price fell but then came back up and I closed at -1 , after which the price fell. - do I have a 'fear of loss' - a 'fear of trading' ? about an hour later I closed fxt and mt within minutes of the price beginning its rally and spike up to the higher m61 and within a pip of the 15m rf 38 - HC. the above taught me a few things and probably requires me to start at school grade 7 'Introduction to Trading' rather than 'Trading 101'. I won't start a running analysis of each trade I make but just say changing from 'head' trading to 'system' trading is requiring a lot more work than I first realised, and requires for me at least a written 'pre-trade analysis' before my itchy figure gets anywhere near clicking a B/S I may also switch to NY hours, Oh gawd, 5am start and do a lot more demo trading the 1m chart before real money trading Analysis: 4:45pm another either U or D session for me, although I'm seeing more up clues ? than down Daily - the Dec 15 close was just above the Jun 29 LL-Nov 4 HH cf 50 , the Nov 30 L was on the 61 , and yesterday's close and today's price so far is above that 50 and above the Nov 30-Dec 14 cf 50 also crossing above a major sec median line and now travelling between the 61s. WWs Down on the 4h the price may have broken out of a sec, although this can be re-positioned so that the price would have to break about 1.3255 to be clear of that sec - if only on a temporary basis, then it would be a matter of breaking the upper 61 then 1.3345 and should say that a base may have formed based on the LCs of yesterday's bars H00:00 and H16:00 . WWs Up the 60 doesn't provide any additional information. WWs Up