gawd ! Friday already, where'd the week go ? bouncesay, bouncesaaaay I was asleep when the price dropped to and thru the 1.4372 level if the past week is an example of what the price is going to do until the FOMC then I just might get my gun out and shoot someone mind you, 100+ pip bouncesay, bouncesays are nothing to sneer at, almost as good as straight trends Friday April 14 session: 3:40pm I 'think' we may have downside again, a slow one, but no up afterwards, a setup possibly for a rally next week if the price does drop, watch the 4H 12-16:00 bars to see if the price bases and a rally begins. possible low again the 1.4372 level
if last Thursday saw the completion of a top - reversal formation of the Feb-Apr wave it's likely the price will continue declining till the FOMC a lot is being made of the meeting as a time target, and pure conjecture that some action or announcement by the Feds will move all markets significantly while the EU debt situation continues to be factious and fractious, no critical change has occurred that would see a collapse of the euro and timelines there stretch out for a couple of months before a major problem may occur altogether I don't 'expect' a large move down, only a correction Monday April 18 session: Sunday 5:00pm I don't think at this time there's upside potential for the euro the next major lower levels are 1.4174 , 1.14134 and while various cfs can be drawn on charts, I'm not going to start quoting levels from those but stick with the idea the price will decline to the major levels down to 1.4372 area, rally ? till H07:00 ? at least 1.4416 ? 1.4430s ?? then down ?
weaker than I'd anticipated it's difficult with a top as complicated at this one to know where to draw fibos from but one pf I've drawn seems to have worked since the price closed 1 pip below the 261.8 level on the 60 min chart - which for me means the fibo is correct what's in question now is if the price will go back down and base or continue up in a correction move, and then later, break thru the previous lows and go to the next lower levels at 1.3931 and 1.3895 Tuesday April 19 session: 2:40pm no easy call here a base doesn't necessarily mean the price will go back down to the previous lows nor for that matter a new low wouldn't be made a corrective action could last several days and there may be some clue what form the correction may take based on the price basing or not draw cfs
question is, having had several cs on the 50 rf level, will the price now decline or run up to the 1.4372 level - which is just 10 pips above the 61 rf level ? Tuesday April 19 session: 3:00pm yesterday's 'draw cfs' was meant to be 'draw rfs' difficult to know if a declines starts here, is it a correction prior to a new high, and how low it should go and remain a correction - rather than a down move, or will the price simply take off up ? the next 2 4H bars may tell the tale to come and then what ? the price could go thru a reversal formation presuming it continues to rally Friday the markets are closed for Good Friday - excepting most fx brokers will still be trading - so there's a possibilty of there being a sideways correction period thru Thursday and a decline beginning on Monday, alternatively a decline starts Thursday
a holeday for my charts, 6E v spot, hmmm, what's the difference ??? I gave a thought yesterday to the price running up to the 1.45 again, a reversal form- ation was what I thought but my speculation ended there, in part because of think- ing about Wednesday being The day my thinking was also influenced by the price drop on the 4H from the 1.45 which for all intents is a straight angle down, fast market running corrections, and even on the D it's the first correction without an up day since last year depending on how the sdc is drawn - outer line on lows or ml thru last hc, the price has gone thru the ml and could go to 1.47 or, topping at the ml 'may', start a decline my inclination to the downside is looking for a correction, not a continuing rally if the price were to drop all the way back down to the 1.41 area I'd have to think that beginning Wednesday there'll be an explosive rally - or has it started already the alternative continue rallying suggests the Fed announcement will be a non event Thursday April 21 session: 3:15pm (got the day correct this time) today's 74.55 close of the DX is below the Nov 09 LC, that bar's LL 74.01 , so the DX is at a make-or-break level, but, no reason why a new low couldn't occur and a rally begin after the low so there's a could-be scenario for the euro that it continues to rally till Wed but, begins a decline from whatever high it reaches the price just keeps going up, or, watch if the price breaks 1.4470 which presumes the price continues down
back again to the DX - charts attached 3 possible interpretations: - price is completing w 2 of the new $ bull market - price will base around 0.71 , possibly higher - price is going to drop below 0.71 Wednesday 12:30pm EST is soon to arrive and I expect the euro to drop some prior to the FOMC announcement the US is one of the last countries to make any rate adjustment, resulting in a re-pricing of its currency - or at least the beginning of a re-pricing. many believe the Feds won't raise till next year, which means the $ will continue to fall. corporate earnings are at extreme highs again and if the US still manufactured, the International Trade figures would be even higher the next FOMC meet isn't until June 21-22 , so whatever is said on Wednesday has to last a while, and it may be the Feds will squeak by not having to do anything this month but make a polite and insipid blancmange statement Monday April 25 session: Sunday: 5:00pm 2 upper levels, 1.4717 and 1.4667 whereas spot is 1.46665 and will the price rally to then complete a reversal formation during most of this session then begin a sell-off alternate is the top is in and the next 4H will see the price beginning its decline
well the price has been a lot slower than I'd thought it would be, on the other hand it's to be expected, or is it ? Chairman Bernanke will meet the press on Wednesday at 2:15pm EST Tuesday April 26 session: 3:00pm at present the 1.4519 level seems to be the base for the price I hadn't expected to be looking at spot everyday as I'm now doing, mostly because of the backwardation - will that ever catch up ? - which has produced different levels or at least some differences in fibo levels. the 1.45194 spot level is what the price came up to between the 12th and 15th which is why it's strong, whereas the 6E has the appearance of floating in noman's land between levels wondering if the 6E will drop down to the 1.4416 - 1.4372 by way of a completing ? a correction by the week end; has a reversal formation completed and will the decline now continue ? or just more sideways ?
FMOC announcement - 12:30 pm EST - press questions - 2:15pm EST Wednesday April 27 session: 2:50pm having reached 1.4640 I think the 6E price will finally hit the 1.4667 level, not sure if it'll get to the 1.4717 level tho the spot high was even closer - 11pips from the 1.46665 level, what's the possibility of the 1.47518 level being hit ? higher highs first, and watch out for a possible fast sell-off
well the road ahead's pretty clear isn't it - UP many have already said there'll be no rate increase until 2012 which leaves a large amount of time for the $ to continue down. the M LC is 72.25 - lower for the W and D , but long term analysis will have to wait till the weekend Thursday April 28 session: 2:55pm next three 6E levels: 1.4905 - 1.5017* - 1.5144* - 1.5202 * 'major' levels; the 1.5144 you may know is the Nov 2009 HH spot has had a close just above the 1.47874 level and dropped below it, next up are 1.49050 and 1.50557 spot and the 6E Ds have the price right against upper sdc lines, and on the Ws the price is now well above the ml looking for the 1.5168 spot Nov 2009 HH some downside prior to more up ?
today's the first I've noticed the 6E - spot price has narrowed, last check they were about 13 pips apart. not sure what that means, will have to do some research but is it that the overall price momentum ? / value ? is weakening ? Friday April 29 session: 2:50pm the current formation - looking at the 30min has possibilities of rallying back up to the 1.4855 area to form a top - reversal formation; also the possibility of a decline after the market opens, dropping to a new low, completing a correction prior to a new rally this current trend that began on April 18/19 hasn't printed a down day even during its mid rally correction, and it's possible this session may be a down day that also doesn't print red at the close of business sdc wise the price remains strong both in the larger and narrower channels, mid way between fibo levels is also ok too downside - 1.4717 level and 1.4710 which is one 61 cf level but, has a correction enough completed for the rally to now continue ? look both ways before entering the trade