the Mar 11-16 formation is so large that the run up and pop thru of the higher 1.40421 level seems more of a stretch just to learn where that level is before blowing thru it the 1.4051 high stopped at the m l, bearing in mind the sdc can be and is adjusted from time to time, and since I can't see the formation of the last few days as a rever- sal formation, have to believe the price will continue to rise Thursday Mar 17 session: 4:30pm looking at the 15 min chart, the two HCs were a touch above/below the lower level 1.40339 and the LC between the closes on the 50 cf; so the expectation is for the price to return to the 1.3880 area, complete the correction and then begin the next advance, possibly with the H 04:00 bar
I haven't been posting because I'd developed a major trading problem I've now discovered that it was a conflict between the timeline that the posts are related to and the intraday/scalp trading timeline the posts seem to have moved me a long way from intra/scalp trading, well into the realm of Day-to-Days trading now I've solved the problem, I need some demo trading for a while, meanwhile I'll do a Sunday update, maybe one or more during the week, but concentrate on getting back into profitable scalping PIIGS + Others Debt - via CIA World FactBook - data 2010 est https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html I was amazed at the amount of Ireland's External Debt, also that of the UK, and note Japan's Public Debt amount . . . . . . . . . . population . . . GDP . . . Public Debt . . . External Debt Portugal . . . . . 10.8 M . . . . $247 B . . 83% GDP . . . . . $497.8 B Ireland . . . . . . 4.7 M . . . . . $172 B . . 94% GDP . . . . . $2.253 T *** Italy . . . . . . . . 61 M . . . . . $1.8 T . . . 118% GDP . . . . $2.223 T Greece . . . . . 10.8 M . . . . $322 B . . . 144% GDP . . . . $532.9 B Spain . . . . . . 46.8 M . . . . $1.4 T . . . . 63% GDP . . . . . $2.2 T Belgium . . . . 10.4 M . . . . $397 B . . . 98% GDP . . . . . $1.24 T * Canada . . . . . 34 M . . . . . $1.3 T . . . 34% GDP . . . . . . $1 T France . . . . . 65 M . . . . . $2.2 T . . . . 83% GDP . . . . . . $4.7 T Germany . . . 81 M . . . . . $2.9 T . . . . 78% GDP . . . . . . $4.7 T Japan . . . . . 126 M . . . . . $4.3 T . . . . 225% GDP . . . . . $2.4 T UK . . . . . . . 63 M . . . . . . $2.2 T . . . . 76% GDP . . . . . $8.98 T *** US . . . . . . . 313 M . . . . . $14.7 T . . . 59% GDP . . . . . . $14 T EU . . . . . . . 500 M . . . . . $14.8 T . . . 73.6 GDP . . . . . . $18 T . . . 09 data Wiki Week's session: Sunday March 27: 2:30 pm back in Nov/2010 the HH hit a 76 rf from the Nov/2009 HH, and last Monday's HC was + 1.8 pips above the Nov/2010 HC , and just over the ml of ms secs I have on the ms D chart I'm expecting some sell-off again, probably down to the old 1.40421 1.40339 levels with the possibility of the price dropping to 1.39996 , or in between - or has the down- side ended ? - ending with the opening of the Europe session, which may see the beginning of a rally till the week end and NFP release, and still another week to go until the ECB announcement while the 2010-11 formation has the appearance of a symmetrical reversal formation it's much more likely imo that the price will continue to rally, and in the longer term anywhere up to the 1.50 again nearer term there's several levels based on pfs and higher rf levels: 1.4375 1.4440 1.4560 1.4665 but a major or significant price may be the 1.44 area, seeing if the price goes thru that or stops there a while
Friday's NFP consensus info: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . Consensus . Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change . . 192,000 . . 200,000 . . 150,000 to 310,000 Unemployment Rate - Level . . . . . 8.9 % . . . .8.9 % . . . . 8.7 % to 9.1 % not a lot to say, obviously the price didn't rally like I thought it might I'll leave additional analysis till Sunday but you have to wonder if we've already seen the top for the euro Thursday Mar 31 session: 4:15 pm I'm presuming that the price is just going to drift down again until the NFP release down to the 1.4030 area levels, possibly, , , those around 1.3960s or an in between
another one to remember - ESM - European Stability Mechanism he ? said the US debt to gdp ratio was more like 500% and that interest rates going to 6+% would be a result of the debt, not inflation bets are on the ECB Will raise the EU interest rate from 1% to 1.25% on Thursday 7:45am EST. but, perhaps more, or as significant may be a statement whether or not there will be More rises to come, 2% by year end 'buy on rumour sell on news', either way, if there's no increase a sell-off, raise, still a sell-off ? but an aggressive/assertive 'rates will continue to rise' statement ought to result in a rally, ought it not ? meanwhile, Ireland are already lobbying for a reduction of debt loan rates and an ECB rate rise further harms the economy, hitting the rising mortgage delinquencies but Germany wants the increase; PPP increases with the higher valued euro and imports cost less, but exports cost more emerging countries and including China and India have been increasing rates and the ECB is expected to be next, UK in May ? and the US ? the HC of the W and M are well above the Oct 2010 HC and the D Nov 2010 HC but the Oct/Nov 2010 HH has yet to be breached. there are many lines the price is on that penetrating will see a rally; when it comes to time targets, obviously in order to reach 12 o'clock, time has to pass 9 , 10 , 11 o'clock, and so while this week is a time target, there are other future time targets, and one of those is the last week of April, and the month end, the week of the FOMC announcement on April 27 , which brings into consideration, will the Fed raise the FFRate on the 27th ? Monday April 4 session: Sunday 3:30pm the price movement/formation of the previous 2 weeks was a toughie to keep track of with the double whammy of NFP, plus the forthcoming ECB announcement result- ing in an extended period of 'correction' I don't see any reason why the price couldn't decline again to the 1.4100 - 1.4050 area, and I don't see any reason why the price couldn't rally to the 1.4400 area 60/40 on a continued rally
'Gird Up Your Loins' get your pointy stick, your banana, fish - fish ? and remember to squeeze tight at 7:44:59am EST Thursday April 7 session: 4:00pm finally. we're rid of that ziggy wiggy waggy zaggy correction my charts and perhaps yours look empty without the fibos that the price stepped up these last many months there are of course more fibos, additional rfs and pfs; the previously stated 1.44 target is based on various lines other than fibos, and the following prices are new rf levels: 1.43724 , 1.44480 , 1.45194 , 1.46665 should be enough for now I'll leave the pf targets till the weekend - presuming there will be a rate rise ; !!!rEEEaKsHUn a bit tough to call, does it depend on what sort of statement is made about future rate increases ? and how soon they may come ? but overall, I'll bet even if there is a bear trap sell-off at first, the rally is likely to continue
as and when ECB live broadcasts: http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html want an mt4 with the 6E contract ? most futures + etc, unlimited demo: http://www.brocompany.com/brokerage-services/open-demo-account/broco-trader/ attached is my 'T3 Scalp' 'system' - Not a set of how-to trading rules but a ramble about my recent trade/analysis conflict, resolution and current scalp charts setup zip contains pdfs and indicators for nt 6.5 - 7 and mt4 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ the $ is continuing its decline and you've probably noticed a pickup in references to the Apr 26/7 FOMC likewise I'm mentioning it early because of time targets, and it will also be a month end, but more relevant is on the Daily where the price is hitting mls, which previously the price has bounced off, and very close to ml on the W then there's the about 74.50 price that's previously held in 09 and 10 . for the price to hit the M ml it will have to break 74.50 and it would then be a question of will the price go to 70 ? what 'could' stop the $ decline around 74/73+ is a surprise FFRate increase, or a 'strong vigilance' type statement from the Fed what I'm expecting then for the euro is more upside this week then a period of corr- ection until the FOMC, and depending what comes out of the announcement may setup another month of rally during May there remains the possibility the price Continues to Rally Into the week of the FOMC orrrrr, decline this week, rally next week ? Monday April 11 session: Sunday: 3:00pm remember that gap - 6E April 9-12/10: 1.3506 - 1.3628 now that I have a full set of 6E charts I'm switching to those and don't plan on keep- ing the eurusd charts up to date, except for the the 60 4H and D maybe on Wed and the weekend, so will be quoting 6E prices and levels, while any time targets will be the same for both spot and futures; if that's a problem for eurusd traders, pm me that said but because I'm updating charts - Lots of them here's new prices and one spot 1.4667 s1.46820 - 85 rf, and together with pfs, 1.47 to 1.48 areas - for now those 60 min bars on Friday - H15 thru H20 were all closing on or around 1.4416 - which just happened to be the higher rf 61
this journal works as a sort of confessional, confessing analysis or trading sins and I sinned last night while demo trading, another rogue trader session I'd made one sell that was profitable and re-entered expecting the price to drop to or thru the 61 . I should have been extra cautious of course because we know don't we that the price doesn't always drop to/thru the lines, in fact more often than not they Stop prior to reaching them. so 35 seconds after entering the short in comes 410 contracts and the price jumps from my fill of 1.4424 to 1.4436 and besides the fact the rally is now on, there's nothing one can do when such volumes hit so then I went on a rogue trader spree with a last entry of 5 sell at 1.4450 bringing the total contracts to 10 and the average at 1.4441 I could have gotten out with profit several times but was determined to have my pound of flesh - blood and all, but eventually closed the trade, reset the sim account and went to bed playtime over, no more rogue trading, down to business Tuesday April 12 session: 3:00pm more downside to the 1.4372 level ? 4H bar 8:00 ? 12 ? or earlier ? then rally ?
some profitable demo trading, renewed my aquaintance with the REV button, quite like it, should be one on fxt not really trading the secs chart alone, might try that this session Wednesday April 13 session: 3:15pm thinking the price may decline again to the 1.4416 , similar timing as yesterday - then up ? don't think the rally's topped, the D crossed an sdc ml last week and is still above it we'll see
GO CANUCKS ! ! ! both the W and now D have the price sitting on their respective sdc mls, and whereas spot has hit the 1.4519 level, the 6E hasn't; so in some respects I guess one Has to keep an eye on both instruments and their charts the formation based on the Cs of the D look like a reversal or at least a corrective formation. the price on the 4H has penetrated the lower sdc line and come back up to close above the 1.4416 level in a complete reversal of what I wrote yesterday, I think serious consideration has to be given to the idea that the euro Has, Topped not only the current trend and W and D charts, but the whole 2008-to date formation when considered as a retracement formation prior to another leg down this is not to say the price couldn't - after the FOMC continue up to a new high while going thru a possible reversal formation - which the euro is prone to do, with the most recent exception being last year's May-June immediate turnaround from 1.18+ after the Greek crisis I'll leave it at that for the present Thursday April 14 session: 3:15pm downside how much ? hmmmmm . . . first obvious level is 1.4372 , then 1.4174-34 , these are the major rf levels the price shold interact with on the way down will wait to see if - when the price breaks 1.4372 before I start drawing cfs