Wallace Euro Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Wallace, Nov 22, 2010.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    i think we're looking at the beginning of a downtrend here.
     
    #111     Feb 21, 2011
  2. you probably know about the addition of the CQG datafeed to AMP Futures' lineup
    a lot of people are happy about it since it opens up more markets to trade, including
    mini and micro contracts, which is why the CQG only account minimum is $500

    one of my concerns had always been having the broker get me out of the market if
    my isp etc went down, and a broker I had been dealing with had said it couldn't be
    done; now, no problem, AMP can and would close a trade if need be, and I've had
    enough outages to know it'll happen again. CQG also has 3 data centers so have
    built-in redundancy that I believe few other data vendors provide

    my AMP account will be funded next week, ta-taa Oanda . . . except, stay tuned ;


    I was about to write the price could go down to the gap line again but the price has
    just popped up instead of down, mind you it could still drop


    Wednesday Feb 23 session: 3:40pm

    think there's a possibility that today could be a breakout/up session, and possibly a
    large move

    some levels: new 1.37152 , 1.37429 and old 1.37578 and 1.37753
    however the price has to first go thru yesterday's 1.36978 H area, and for the time,
    we're in I think no-man's land again
     
    #112     Feb 22, 2011
  3. the price didn't travel as far as I thought it might, and because of that, think we may
    have a down session today, although I'm not expecting a lot of downside

    Thursday Feb 24 session: 4:15pm

    there aren't any levels in the space below, but I'll suggest the 1.370 area as a level
    the price may settle at
     
    #113     Feb 23, 2011
  4. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    its difficult to call this with china on the bid all the time.
     
    #114     Feb 23, 2011
  5. Globex mini and micro Euro FX contract specs for AMP/CQG/NT:
    E-Mini Euro FX - E7 - $62,500 Contract - $6.25 per pip - Daytrade Margin $250 -
    roundturn commission - $3.37
    Micro Euro FX - M6E - $12,500 Contract - $1.25 per pip - Daytrade Margin $100 -
    roundturn commission - $1.99
    same for the other currencies
    reported volume for Feb 23/11: 6E 307,530 - E7 5,967 - M6E 5,810
    attached chart is the 6E and M6E about 3am PST and gives you an idea of how the
    M6E contract trades; thin volume and what might result in 'slippage'; the lines are
    4 pips apart. the E7 was n/a in NT, possibly because it's a limited 5 day demo

    I'm experimenting with nt 10 sec v 10 tick charts and surprised how different the
    price formation is from one chart to the other
    I put a demo trade on then Properties the chart and was changing the chart updating
    period from 0.5 to 0.1, warning message, ignore, then the chart stops updating wtfug
    delete chart and create new one, still not updating ? ? ? ahaaaa, it's closing time
    think I'll have to set an alarm for 1:50pm to warn me it's get-out-of-trade time

    thinking there may be another correction down, then rally into the close


    Friday Feb 25 session: 3:15pm

    although I see the price is still rising, maybe it'll stop around 1.38156 - new level
    lows could be 1.37752 and 1.37578 IF the price corrects, then the 12:00 bar +/- may
    see a rally begin
    next high levels are first the Feb 02 high of 1.38606 then 1.38815 then 1.38947
     
    #115     Feb 24, 2011
  6. the price topped on Friday and has become a Sell

    we can expect a down week, the ECB Thursday, and Friday's NFP release which is
    also the day the US Fed 'runs out of money'

    under consideration is whether the price will stay above the gap or go thru it -
    who cares really if you're Short, a potential 300+ profit drop if the price goes below
    the 1.34981 gap line, and completing a good looking correction

    Monday Feb 28 session: Sunday: 2:45pm

    I think the price should run back up to the 1.3760 area again then begin a decline
    you should know all the levels now so I won't bother repeating them, it's a matter of
    how the price reacts with the gap line and levels just above, then whether the price
    goes thru the gap line this session or the next
     
    #116     Feb 27, 2011
  7. well, was the rally and new high a reversal formation, or is the formation now a
    repeat of Feb 21/22 and the price will go higher still ?
    I'm going for reversal formation and we'll probably know in the next couple of hours

    Tuesday Mar 1 session: 4:00pm

    I don't expect much more upside, and basically a repeat of yesterday's comment
    that the price will go down
     
    #117     Feb 28, 2011
  8. the highs of the 2 previous sessions never reached the Feb 2 high, and you have to
    wonder what's going on when the price only comes back up to where it was before
    until finally coming off. but, while I think the price should drop, the price may have
    other ideas


    Wednesday Mar 2 session: 5:00pm

    currently the price at 1.37701 is between the 2 older set of levels, if the price breaks
    those - 1.37578 and drops, there's the 1.370 area it may see some support, breaking
    that could go to the gap line - but 'by' Friday's session
    so if the price Is going to go as low as I'm stuck on, there'll be some corrective action
    before it gets there
    breaking up thru 1.3786 May signal a Buy again
     
    #118     Mar 1, 2011
  9. with a new high and Friday still a day/session away, there's the possibility of more
    upside, although my suspiciousity is wondering if the Feb 25 - current is a reversal
    formation and this next high won't be too much higher, although on the Daily Weekly
    charts there's Lots of upside

    Thursday Mar 3 session: 3:45pm

    the price popped the 1.38815 level and above that is 1.38947 then space to levels
    around 1.40+

    ECB later, no change expected and Jobs
     
    #119     Mar 2, 2011
  10. the NFP bet is how much above or below the Consensus the released number is
    if the Consensus is widely off, a large price reaction is likely to take place. also the
    price/traders will sit still until the release, then 'regardless' the data is right on, the
    price will move after the release, a trend change
    we already have the expectation the number will be large - how large at 8:30am EST
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . Consensus . Consensus Range
    Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 36,000 . . 180,000 . . 120,000 to 255,000
    Unemployment Rate - Level . . . . 9.0% . . . .9.1% . . . . . 8.9% to 9.3%


    Friday Mar 4 session: 3:00pm

    my apologies for having overlooked the 2 levels at 1.39577 and 1.39684 , I've now
    updated All my charts

    not going to try and second guess what the price is going to do, except my system
    suggests a down day
    next higher levels are 1.40339 and 1.40421
     
    #120     Mar 3, 2011