Wallace Euro Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Wallace, Nov 22, 2010.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    will only go long with a close over 1.3685. apart from that, i'll continue to fade rallies.
     
    #101     Feb 8, 2011
  2. there ya go Tsing Tao, music to trade by: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juEeau5nHVU&feature=related

    well the 4H didn't close on the 50 but did close just under the 61 , in the process
    coming short of the 1.37578 level, and 1.37752 above that
    the HH on Feb 2 at 1.38606 was below the 2 close levels that top at 1.38947 , and
    the Jan 27 HH was 1.37286 while yesterday's session was 1.37241

    a small problem I have is that my ms chart is setup slightly differently than my mt
    chart, and via the ms I interpret another rise of the price, while I interpret the mt
    chart as a could-be down from here


    Thursday Feb 10 session: 4:15pm

    I think I have to go with more upside

    quite how far the price could go I'm unsure, but the price is strong within various lines
     
    #102     Feb 9, 2011
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    yesterday proved the ms chart wasn't working correctly, an adjustment made plus
    an update to the 60min should keep things on track

    it's still not 'without a shadow of a doubt' for me what the price is doing
    is yesterday's high the right shoulder of an h&s ? or part of a series of rallies and
    declines that might see a low around 1.3450 area that would complete a correction
    prior to a new high ?

    Friday Feb 11 session: 5:25pm

    ok, obviously going down, a base around 1.35753 ? a base around 1.35079 ? or is
    the price going to blow thru - h&s 'confirmed' and going back down to 1.29 or lower
    or, correcting the full Jan-Feb rally so down to 1.3380 area, 1.3250 ?

    might we see a rally back up to the top gap line ? the 1.3740 area ???
     
    #103     Feb 10, 2011
  4. last week's close on the Weekly finally registered on my chart as a down week, and
    by the end of this week I expect the chart to register an up week

    last look at fxt and the price was falling; not surprising, while Friday's formation looked
    like a base, the formation at the time of the close suggested an rc with more down-
    side to come, and I believe today will be a down day thru the lower gap line


    Monday Feb 14 session: Sunday: 2:45pm

    levels targets: new: 1.34799 old: 1.34624 old and new: 1.34349 new: 1.33899

    while the downside could end by today's close, have to consider it could continue
    into Wednesday
     
    #104     Feb 13, 2011
  5. more good Sunday gap trades

    I don't see anything like a base on any timeframes, not that a base/reversal formation Has
    to form, although with this correction I'll be looking for one, so I expect more downside
    later this session


    Monday Feb 15 session: 3:25pm

    the 4H had closings just above the 1.34624 level, penetrated the 1.34343 level and
    stopped just above a new, new level of 1.34253

    I think the price 'may' pop up in/to the gap before coming off again with a new downside
    targets of new 1.33899 and new and new 1.33671
    as well there's an old level at 1.33344
     
    #105     Feb 14, 2011
  6. (previous of course was for Tuesday)


    the price bounce was a surprise, but this current formation appears to be — dare I
    say it - forming a base

    looking at the 60 , the price penetrated and closed above the 1.34343 level, peaking
    and closing under the 1.35342 level and below a new 1.35526 50 , and 3 hours ago
    it closed and bounced off the 61

    at 2pm est the FOMC minutes will be released


    Wednesday Feb 16 session: 3:30pm

    this base, If that's what it is, has an H&S appearance, so how high the right shoulder
    could go is the first question. a base as we know may first be symmetrical, the start
    end legs, weak - at the end of a downtrend v v uptrend - right leg lower than left, strong
    right leg higher than left, weak/strong suggesting a weak/strong forthcoming rally

    as the price approaches the gap line will it rally to the 1.35162 level again where it's
    already had a close - right shoulder, then decline
    the downside for a symmetrical formation would be the 1.34343 area, although the
    60 min left leg close was 1.34424 , while the 4H close was that 1.34624 level
    time targets are the 4H 12:00 and 16:00 bars

    while presuming a base formation, is it possible the correction is over, the low has
    been made, and the price is now in rally mode ? - there will be no right leg down
     
    #106     Feb 15, 2011
  7. the base - if that's what it was on the 4H reminds me of the formation of Nov-Jan
    however I'm wondering if there's still going to be another decline to say the 1.32s
    before this correction has completed


    Thursday Feb 17 session: 4:00pm

    steady direct climb back to the gap line ? 4H bar 12:00 again, then a selloff ?
    upside scenario is the price breaks thru the gap line and keeps going
     
    #107     Feb 16, 2011
  8. the price took a great deal longer than I thought it would to reach the gap line
    and now that it has reached it, what's it going to do ?
    longer term I think there's more upside


    Friday Feb 18 session: 5:50pm

    possibility the price could travel to the Feb 9 high, it may also have topped down-
    side could be 1.35668 ? in a slooow decline, bar 12:30 ? and there's a level below
    that at 1.35590 , once there, perhaps a base formation then
    a rally into the close ?
     
    #108     Feb 17, 2011
  9. there's a number of alternate interpretations via the Daily, and a case for the rally to
    continue, as well as a case for another decline
    currently the major $ fundamental is the US budget funding, the Republicans want
    massive cuts, Obama would veto cuts
    unresolved, the situation comes to a head with the closure of the Federal government
    on March 4 - so basically it's a Buy on rumour Sell on news trade, overall
    I'll go with a continued Buy

    Monday Feb 21 session: Sunday: 4:00pm

    next 3 higher levels, 1.37435 , 1.37578 and 1.37752 which top the Feb 9 high, then
    there's 1.38462 which is around the Feb 2 high, and breaking that level would I think
    see the price going to the Nov 2010 1.4280s high - but not during this session ;
     
    #109     Feb 20, 2011
  10. Oanda have announced that their MT4 is now live
    I just downloaded and installed the MT4 Game as Oanda refer to their demos
    so far as my perusal's determined, the datafeed and resulting prices are neither one
    thing nor t'other
    there are some Saturdays data on the Daily, but not every Saturday, and where that
    data is coming from for those small horizontal lined Saturdays I've no idea, since if you
    look at fxt, you won't find any Saturday trades there
    as stated previously, and aside from the Oanda datafeed inconsistency, the price
    analysis I do especially for time targeting is based on the 5 day trading week, tho I
    am able to add weekends and holiday gaps in ms if I want to go the Gann route
    there also appears to be a small difference in the prices displayed on the fxt v mt4
    which looks like a 0.00007 lower difference with mt4
    I'll keep the demo up and look at the data more closely on the weekend, and while I
    had no thoughts to use the Oanda mt4 to trade from as fxt is so much faster, I think
    it is no use to me and will stick with my Alpari MT4 demo

    meanwhile, it's beginning to look like yesterday's 'I'll go with a continued Buy' is not
    correct, but how incorrect ?
    is this a correction of last week's rally ? or a Major Sell ? that'll see the price below
    the Feb 14 low of 1.34278

    Tuesday Feb 22 session: 6:00pm

    some interim levels: 1.36041 , 1.35854 , 1.35773 and old ones, 1.35590 , 1.35342
    then the gap line; keep an eye on bars 04:00 and 05:00
     
    #110     Feb 21, 2011