Friday Jan 28 session: 11:30am a good sell-off with the price currently - was - sitting on a ff line interim calculations suggest a couple more 4H bars down during Monday's session in addition to the remainder of today; downside targets could be 1.35590 , 1.35429 , 1.35342 , then the gap, IF the price doesn't hold, and close above the gap more on Sunday
Monday Jan 31 session: Sunday 7:00pm last week's sell-off hasn't I believe changed the major Buy to a Sell I think we're into a correction week that may complete on Friday coinciding with the NFP release and giving us a down week with the price likely to go thru the bottom of the gap, the estimated price target - so far is into the high 1.340s during this week of correction - if that's what it's to be, I don't expect to be providing much useful timely analysis given the nature and variability of corrections, however many of the previously stated levels will likely be active
last night I was continually shorting the rally, eventually ending my session with a small net loss, fixated on the rally being a retracement since I'd had no other move in mind other than a continued decline of the price now, either the price will continue to rally to new highs, or, there's a continuing corr- ection going on the correction could be a reversal formation, a similar replication of the 27-28th of last month taking place now; more simply, after a top is made another decline prior to the NFP, which I also seem to be fixated on as a time target and magnet for the price to decline to Tuesday Feb 1 session: 4:45pm there's been a buy in place since this week's opening so depending on your trading it might remain in place till it nears last week's previous HH, and a possible trading band based on levels, maybe 1.37008 up to 1.37578 if the price is to do something resembling an inverted H&S, or if it's just anyway a slow correction if the price gets to 1.37578 , it's possible it could penetrate the level but close just below it, or close just above or on it, and in both cases decline, however, all my long term charts - M W D and currently the 4H remain a Buy
I was doing some price target projections, belatedly but at least tuned back into it, these based on the Weekly: 1.4029 is the previous HC, the HH 1.4281 Nov last year but the price stopping there doesn't 'look right' to me, if the next major move is the collapse of the euro. IF there's a major correction of the price going on from the '08 1.57 high, this part of the correction 'has to' get closer to the 1.50 level again to have 'the look'. of course that's just personal aesthetics, but . . . if the price Is going to that 'next level' then 1.48/9 is a consideration; a more extreme idea is a dollar collapse that sees the euro, not at 1:1 with the buck, but 1:2 Wednesday Feb 2 session: 11:25pm price is in a bit of a no-man's land between a last level of 1.37985 and 1.38815 and 1.38957 which may be reached this session not sure if the price will come off, maybe hold around an arbitrary 1.3815 or so or drop down to the 1.37985 level, or lower 1.3750s
Thursday Feb 3 session: 4:30pm I'm trying to figure a possible correction scenario - rally then decline, 1.3900 gets hit or only 1.3870 , 1.3950 ? then a decline, or a decline then rally. the ECB should be a non-event, but a decline to the NFP, not because it's important - it may already be seen as a non-event, but a decline for another rally that goes into the 1.4000s since what's going on is a running correction signifying a Strong rally the major correction is over ? so correcting from new highs, not to new lows
well the above was another correctly wrong analysis it was also only this morning I heard the talk about the ECB rate increase possibility but doubt it would have changed what I was thinking - or would it ? my gross oversite was not having considered THE basic currency fundamental â interest rates, will they be lowered ? will they be raised ? checking back I now realize the 294 pip rally on Jan 13 was the result of Trichet's comments - which I didn't read - nor the interpretations that followed: Peter Garnham January 13 2011 23:34 - Financial Times UK: "Mr Trichet struck a hawkish tone after the central bankâs policy meeting â at which it left its main lending rate at 1 per cent â emphasising that the ECB was prepared to raise interest rates to keep prices stable." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cee9c1c4-1efc-11e0-b3ba-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CvtIKYDv then yesterday's statement which appeared to have the hawkishness removed, and perhaps some back-peddling is being done, and here's his problem: 'Trichet Battling With a Knotty Problem' Alen Mattich Wall Street Journal "Trichet is doing a fair imitation of a pretzel. The European Central Bank's president is having to tie himself in knots to square euro-zone monetary policy. On the one hand, the German economy is belting along. Throw in rising global commodity prices and there's a serious risk of an ugly inflationary cycle kicking off in Europe's biggest economy. On the other, crisis-crippled countries at the periphery are barely managing to stay afloat. The ECB is having to make sure they have enough liquidity to keep their banking sectors from foundering and low enough interest rates to keep the countries from falling into a cycle where deflation makes the existing debt burden ever harder to eliminate." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703652104576122202590183960.html who'll raise first ? the ECB or the Feds ? Friday Feb 4 session: 4:00pm the immediate question is: has the major Buy changed to major Sell ? my bet is it hasn't, but in part how this session closes the week may help to confirm the answer currently the M has changed to a Sell, the W is still a Buy, the D we know is Sell we've previously seen the price penetrate the 1.36264 gap line and close in the gap but not on any level that I had on my mt charts, excepting ms projection fibos I'd done that before, been late applying pfs, and while they don't take over c/r fibos they can be more accurate since they're based on the trend itself, even tho the price at present is traveling down to the levels on the way up, the level based on the close back into the gap on Jan 25 on the 4H 08:00 bar is 1.35914 , and while the dip-in on Jan 28-31 had higher closes, the low of bar 4H 00:00 on Jan 31 was 1.35701 compared to Jan 25's 1.35725 so presuming this session to be quiet, that is a price collapse won't occur, can we expect the price to continue a now slow decline to the 1.35914 and 1.35701 levels or pass thru them ? subsequent levels are 1.35590 , 1.35429 , 1.35342 then the gap at 1.34981 , but the one that matters at present, is the 1.3570 , can the price hold that level ?
when I look at the Daily, I wonder if the price came back up into the 70s for a couple of days, would that form an H&S a rate increase by someone is high; can the EU out rate the US and benefit from a lower ⬠, is it a strategy that's in any way in the ECB's mind if the $'s current correction has topped, it's next drop Down starts this week the blow-thru c level on the W is 76.69 , the M is 77.45 , then it's a matter of waiting to see if 74.735 level is taken out, tho that's some weeks away, March - April EU's inflation: http://www.ecb.int/stats/prices/hicp/html/inflation.en.html US story: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Articles/M3_Money_supply_2.asp Monday Feb 7 session: Sunday 3:00pm the least to expect is for the price to go back down to the 1.3542 area and base but it's very possible the price will drop to and probably thru the gap line, hopefully closing on or just below 1.34981 , occurring during the 4H 04:00 bar ? or a 'whole session' movement/base, and then the price takes off Up again ?
Monday Feb 7 session: 10:15am well the price stopped quite a bit above the gap line, more than enough to suggest it's still going to drop thru it - the 'gap logic' being to 'close' the gap by going to the other side of it, up or down if the price is going to continue down again, it could stop anywhere between the gap line itself - 1.34981 to the 1.34343 level, there's a few levels in between, and not to say the price can't go lower
on my charts the M is still Sell, but the W has flipped to Buy, yesterday's session ended as a Buy and so far this session's a Buy with the new 4H bar, however I'm still wondering if the price will break the gap line, now 80 or so pips below looking at the 4H, it's possible a quite weak base formed during the previous two sessions, which together with various lines and levels suggest there's a new rally in progress, unknown is if it's a retracement, part of a possible correction formation of the Jan-Feb rally Tuesday Feb 8 session: 4:25pm right Now, the price is completing a correction with a new high to come, possibly only up to the top gap line, or it's completed a reversal formation and on its way down; possibly 1.3570 is a Sell price
while the gap occurred between April 9-12/10 , the gap lines extended to the far left edge coincidentally intersect a number of s/r price congestions, peaks etc the price's entry into the top gap line began in the week of Jan 31/10 before exiting thru the bottom gap line the week of Apr 18/10 , so it seems independant of the gap there's a boggy bit where the price sticks Wednesday Feb 9 session: 4:15pm so far the price has hit the 50 rf at 1.36843 ; the 60min closed just above the level but not the 4H, and I'm wondering if, the price will rally for the 4H to close on the 50 so it's possible we may have a rally possible low 1.3607 , and there's a level at 1.35911 also the possibility of an upside being higher than the 50 level