IEA has some pretty charts regarding world oil demand. They lowered '08 oil demand growth from 1.5% to 1.2% on Tuesday so the '08 forecast in the charts are probably going to be redone. It is amazing how much oil is up for the year yet demand has been revised downward for the second straight month.
Another interesting article on the speculative issue... http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/16/news/economy/oil_speculator/index.htm?postversion=2008051609 Neither pro nor con on it.
Not worried at all, aside from that I just added some SMN into my long term investment account around $27.70. Im not worried about DUG at all, like I said for the 1000th time my commodity inverse short etfs only make up about 10% of my portfolio so im least worried about the drop in DUG....in fact I will be adding more shares into DUG under $25.00, remember I didnt buy DUG all at once, Im buying in 1/4's, next 1/4 comes under $25 the last around $20-$23. Oil will sell off and oil stocks will follow, they are overbought and will correct...oil this high cannot be sustained in a slowing US economy, everyone can keep thinking goldilocks is still here when in fact its just an illusion...
As oil nears $130 a barrel, some say $10 to $70 of that price is due to Wall Street speculation. $10- to as much as $70.00 Funny how they teach you about supply and demand, but never speculation... supply and demand should be thrown out the window when it comes to oil, no such thing with speculation taking the lead in all this oil hype....
You are so full of BS it isn't even funny. You posted back on April 2nd that you purchased the DUG in the $37 handle and that it was a HALF position! Looks like you're having some delusional problems with your memory as well . . . 04-02-08 09:44 AM 1/2 of a position in DUG under $37.00 just a few moments ago.... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=123616
All goldman has to do is raise forecasts once a week and oil could easily go to $500 a barrel by end of 2009. See how easy that is. Oil surges on bullish Goldman Sachs estimate Bloomberg News Published: May 16, 2008 NEW YORK: Crude oil futures rose above $127 a barrel Friday for the first time, leading other commodities higher, after Goldman Sachs raised its forecast on speculation that Chinese diesel purchases would strain supplies. Goldman raised its price outlook for the second half of this year to $141 a barrel, from $107, citing supply constraints. China may increase fuel imports to generate power after a May 12 earthquake. Oil and other commodities, like gold and platinum, also surged on the falling dollar. "We can blame Goldman again," said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA in New York. "In March 2005 they predicted that prices would rise dramatically, and they did. Prices jumped to the $125 level after another Goldman report less than two weeks ago. At this point nobody wants to bet against Goldman." Crude oil for June delivery rose $3.13, or 2.5 percent, to $127.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract surged to $127.82, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices have doubled in the past year. Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $3.26, or 2.7 percent, to $125.89 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract touched a record $126.34 today. A Goldman Sachs analyst, Arjun Murti, wrote in a report this month that "the possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months." Murti first wrote of a "super spike" in March 2005, predicting crude may trade between $50 and $105 a barrel through 2009. "This is a market that wants to go higher and does on any bit of news," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Massachusetts. Problems with coal distribution in China, caused by the earthquake, "will increase gasoil demand, but the amounts aren't huge." PetroChina International, the trading unit of PetroChina, the country's biggest oil producer, has already purchased 400,000 tons, or 2.9 million barrels, of diesel for June. That is in addition to the 200,000 tons that China International United Petroleum & Chemicals, the largest Chinsee trader, bought for the month. "People are really focused on China right now," said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. "When a market moves on such minute data points, it is usually near some sort of inflection point. I think once we move from the June to July contact and we get evidence of weak Memorial Day demand, the market will become more rational." The June contract on the Nymex expires May 20. President George W. Bush will ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to help lower prices during a visit to Riyadh this weekend, a White House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, told reporters traveling on Air Force One. Terms of Use
damn, do you not understand, I said I bought it twice, 36 handle and 29 handle, im not lying. My avg is around $33 a share. Why would I make this up, im going to avg in all the way down to $20-23 range. I have 50% of a position out of a 100% I want to buy into DUG over the next few months, if DUG jumps to $35 im selling my whole position, simple as that. I also own SMN, DEE and DCR, what else do you need to know...
All that "paper" trading must be a real Bi$ch. No one who actually puts REAL capital at risk would average down in the manner that you continue to suggest, let alone do so without stops. I would hate to think of the manner in which you allegedly TRADE the other 90% of your "fantasy" account. Fight massive trends much??? By the way, how are your classes going at University of Central Florida and how much does Baron pay you to post on ET?
You are a LIAR. Your post of April 2nd ( below ) indicates otherwise: 04-02-08 09:44 AM 1/2 of a position in DUG under $37.00 just a few moments ago.... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=123616