I think this bubble is very similar to that of the NASDAQ bubble in 2000. After the fact regulation was put in place that would keep such rampant speculation from affecting the major markets again. The PDT rules that were put in place have done a good job at keeping a similar bubble from reoccurring. If something like this was to be done in the oil markets the result would be similar.
Trust me, I agree with you. I was trading TDY options (Teledyne) in between classes roughly 25 years ago . . . But in this case, S2007S has shown a total lack of risk management, let alone the amazing ability to "fight a trend" for weeks ( and months ) without ever taking a loss. Just take a look at his posts . . . he's like a "broken-clock" but worse cause in this case we are talking about OIL. And when you allegedly get your ass kicked by losing tons of money from "shorting" a MONSTER BULL TREND, you then resort to finding some sort of absurd irrational comfort in calling it a "Bubble". In my humble opinion, it's all fantasy trading via mindless "paper-trading" that serves no real benefit because there is never any capital at risk. I actually think that someone at ET pays him per post. Actually "learning" by putting some capital at risk is a totally different story. Period.
There is absolutely zero similarity. In 2000 you saw IPOs of worthless companies valued at $1bln. The was endless demand for worthless paper until demand suddenly disappeared. Global oil (not US!) consumption and demand is real and increasing. There is no denying it. We'll have to see at what price point global demand will taper off.
Global demand is increasing at 3% a year. According to OPEC production is increasing faster than this. OPEC says that with zero speculation oil should be at $40 dpb to be in line with the supply/demand curve. I think the fact that it is drastically overpriced is enough to link it to the bubble in 2000. Wasn't that all about things being sold at prices they weren't worth?
Look at most people here denying the commodity bubble, I find it amusing. This reminds me of every single damn bubble I have seen in the past, does anyone remember the housing bubble just last year, nearly 99% of the population thought it was going to continue for decades and decades, we all know what happened. When people continue to deny about any kind of bubble thats when its in its forming stage or in it and ready to correct. Anyone will make up excuses as to why commodities will surge higher just like they did with tech stocks in 2000 and housing in 2005-2006.
I know I've posted this already but I really think everyone reading this post should bite the bullet and take thirty minutes to read this entire post. It is continued several times. But it gives an accurate insight into how speculation is effecting this market. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=126809
And how much money did you make exactly spotting and trading against all those bubbles you have spotted in the past? ZERO! You got your head handed to you on a plate by Mr. Market.
"When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy" Warren Buffet I smell just a little greed in the oil market.
What I find amusing is how the DUG is now trading into fresh new lows at $27.52 and you keep trying to "comfort" yourself with the rationalization that Crude Oil is in some sort of a "Bubble" . . . And you talk about the word DENIAL???