As fast as my S&P puts are increasing in value my ZB puts are decreasing in value. I've been rolling this spread since April. I guess we all knew one side had to work. (net winner but aggravating) I'll not only cover on an 1145 print in SPX but I'll flip long index futures. REAL TIGHT STOP. I can't even imagine where the strength could come from but so much stuff is in the hole even a humble amount of short covering could take us back up 70pts from there.
You could be right bro. I have very decent support on todays lows. A smart trader (which I'm not) would cover shorts off his secondary support and get long off 1145. I'm also long a stock that's getting hit hard (FRO) so I'm trying to stay hedged without giving up the wrong piece of the puzzle. These Treasuries are the bitch and it's not my bitch, lol.
thats an interesting spread mr PBR ha ha. I guess just trying to pick your brain of why you put it on.... Foresight? Insight?
FRO looks interesting here, safer way to play the energy bounce with not too much downside hopefully. I picked up ESLR based on the senate bill and barclays taking over their covered call transaction from LEH. If we don't get above ES 1182 in the next 15mins I'm out the NQ. Moved stop to 1672. Out at 1672. I think you may get the 1145 after all, no strength to this bounce.
1. I'm a perma bear in both stocks and Treasuries. I've sold stocks on every swing high since Feb/07. I also sold every non-swing high in 2005 and 2006 too. 2. I misgauged on the Treasury side. Because of increased inflation worries I THOUGHT this leg down in stocks would see far less flight to quality buying than previous stock sell offs in the past year. When I put on these Treasury shorts the inflation picture was far less benign than today. I made just enough shorting EUR and CL a couple of times to mitigate my losses on the ZB rally from about 113-117. Shoulda stayed with those positions. 3. FRO is a portfolio holding for income purposes but it's selloff has certainly forced me to milk my index shorts as much as possible for protective purposes.
I've had FRO on the way up and the whole way down. The yield is a life changer. Unless of course the share price decline eats up my principal. In a normal market this stuff would be trying to find a bid here but the liquidation is so enormous we need to auction lower to facilitate these out of the woodwork sellers. It'll be the same finish as always. Half of America will puke their 401k holdings on the swing low
Pabst, the rally in crude oil and natty-gas today is starting to see some "traction" in the energy equities, which is in turn helping the SPX cash to stabilize a bit. I realize that the Energy weighting of the SPX is only at about 13% these days, but it certainly has been a factor in dragging the SPX up on some wicked intra-day rallies. We might not take out that 1162.25 SPX low. Be careful and watch your retracement numbers. THE OIH is working on a double-bottom intra-day here today. Be careful with those shorts, my friend!
Sure is dicey. I'm using 1176 SPX as a bit of a pivot. Intuitively I think new longs are less than committed (just the fact that we're all using stops) and the amount of selling will only cascade on down ticks. I agree STRONGLY with you and MVIC (two good traders to agree with) that commodities could be the sector we ultimately rally on the back of.