The Wagner Daily - December 14, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks gapped higher at the open on Tuesday, but struggled for most of the day, and eventually closed near session lows. All five major indices closed lower on higher trade. For the second day in a row higher beta stocks led the decline. The small-cap Russell 2000 plummeted 2.1%, while the S&P MidCap 400 dropped 1.9%. The Nasdaq finished down 1.3%. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fared slightly better as they fell 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Market internals ended the session on a bearish note yesterday. Volume surged across the board. Turnover on the Nasdaq and NYSE surged by 13.9% and 23.6% respectively. Declining volume topped advancing volume across the board. The spread ratio ended the session at ratio of -4.7 to 1 on the NYSE and -2.7 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Yesterday was clearly a distribution day, as prices fell while volume increased. Unlike the past two sessions, institutions controlled the day's action. Yesterday, EUO hit our target and we exited the trade with a solid profit. Last week we turned a nice profit on GDXJ and we are also slightly in the money on AGA. AGA appears very close to breaking out. Also yesterday, via intraday alert, we entered a long position in the ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL). Shortly after our entry, GLL broke out to set a new swing high and we are now solidly in the money on the trade. We decided to enter GLL because it was showing relative strength, as it quickly reclaimed its 5 minute high after selling off at the open. We waited for GLL to overcut Monday's high of $17.83 and then entered the trade on a pullback. Details for this trade are available to our clients in the open position segment of the newsletter. The iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (EWJ) sold off sharply after attempting to reclaim support of its 20-day EMA. Further, EWJ reversed on increasing volume. A volume assisted move back below yesterday's low of $19.15 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. The DJIA is the only index that is still holding support of its 200-day MA. The S&P 500 undercut, but managed to hold support at its 50-day MA. However, the Nasdaq sliced through, and closed below support of the 50-day MA. Further, the 20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day MA on the Nasdaq. This is generally considered a bearish signal. For the moment, the Nasdaq poses the most concern because it was unable to hold key support. It is important to note that undercuts of major moving averages are not necessarily bad. They serve to sweep stops and shake weak hands out of the market. This type of price action is generally needed for reversals to occur. But again, the fact that the Nasdaq lost support is not a good sign. Consequently, it is now key that the S&P holds support at the current level. If this broad market index loses support of its 50-day MA, we will likely see further broad based institutional distribution. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 15, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks dropped for a third consecutive session yesterday, on mixed trade. All five major indices closed near session lows. High beta stocks once again led the decline. Leading the decline were the S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq, as both slid 1.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.4%, while both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.1%. Market internals ended the day mixed, but barely. Turnover rose on the Nasdaq by a modest 1.7% but dropped fractionally on the NYSE. Still, declining volume once again dominated the landscape. At the closing bell, the ratio of declining to advancing volume stood at 3.7 to 1 on the NYSE and 6.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The uptick in volume on the Nasdaq suggests that institutions were once again in sell mode. Wednesday marked the third time in five days that the Nasdaq has seen distribution. Given that the NYSE closed virtually at the lows of the session and volume was just fractionally lower, we would also classify Wednesday as a distribution day for this index. Since undercutting its 20-day EMA on December 8th, the iShares JP Morgan US Dollar Emerging Market ETF (EMB) has been consolidating along this key mark for the past four sessions. A move above the two day high of $109.25 may present a buying opportunity in this ETF. Over the past two sessions, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has attempted to reclaim its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, on both occasions, KBE has reversed to close near session lows below these key marks. A move below the two day low of $18.65 could present a shorting opportunity in this ETF. Yesterday, GLL gapped up, rallied strongly and hit our target. We exited the trade with over a 1.0% gain in the model portfolio. We are still in AGA, which also gapped up yesterday. Further, AGA broke above the nine month resistance level of $20.39. Although the market suffered a third straight losing session yesterday, the move is not what we would consider outright carnage. Some sectors are still holding up (Retail, Pharma, Real Estate), and we have not seen many stocks closing down four percent or more. Nonetheless some former leadership stocks have been taking a beating lately. Nasdaq leaders such as PCLN, LULU, WYNN and AMZN have suffered as of late. Our market bias is now modestly bearish, as we have seen six distribution days in the past twenty. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. é 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 16, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks snapped a three day losing streak, as they closed modestly higher on Thursday. However, trade was light. The major indices all closed in the black. The small-cap Russell 2000 showed the most strength on the session, as it tacked on 1.1%. The S&P MidCap 400 added 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average improved by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. As has been common lately, the Nasdaq struggled, as it ended the day just above break even. Market internals were mixed on Thursday. Volume fell on the Nasdaq by 2.4% and on the NYSE by 9.8%. On the NYSE advancing volume outpaced declining volume by a ratio of 1.7 to 1. However, on the NYSE, advancing volume finished at par with declining volume. The light volume casts a shadow over yesterday's positive price action and points to an absence of institutional participation in the day's action. On December 12th, on a massive spike in volume, the S&P Select Technology SPDR ETF (XLK) gapped down and tested support at its 20-day EMA. On December 13th, XLK formed a bearish engulfing pattern and closed at session lows, just below support of the 50-day MA. Over the past two sessions this ETF has been consolidating at its two day lows, below support of its 200-day MA. A volume fueled move below the two day low of $24.99 could provide a short selling opportunity in this ETF. Over the past four trading sessions, the Direxion Daily Emerging Marktes Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) has worked its way back above all of its key moving averages. Further, EDZ in now positioned just above the downtrend line and has been consolidating above this level for the past two days. Also notice the bullish divergence between the price the recent action and the Accumulation-Distribution indicator. A move above the two day high of $22.33 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. We are placing EDZ on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our clients in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. The market continues to struggle to find any positive momentum. Despite the move higher, yesterday's action was far from impressive. If the market doesn't recover from the current levels quickly, another precipitous fall may be in store. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. é 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 19, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks finished modestly higher yesterday, but well off session highs. The day started off well with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average trading as high as 1.7%, 1.3% and 0.8% respectively. However by session's end, the Nasdaq closed just .6% higher, while the S&P 500 posted only a modest gain of 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out the session fractionally lower. The S&P MidCap 400 added 1.0%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 improved by 0.9%. Both of these indices also closed well off the day's highs. Market internals were positive. However, Friday was quadruple options expiration, which makes the internals difficult to accurately gauge. Further, although stocks ended higher, the intraday price action was bearish. Volume spiked by 43.7% on the Nasdaq and 48.4% on the NYSE. Again, this massive surge in volume is in large part attributable to options expiration. Advancing volume was higher than declining volume on both exchanges. By the closing bell, the spread ratio stood at +1.8 to 1 on the NYSE and at +1.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. We are neutral with regard to Friday's internals due to the divergence between intraday price action, and higher volume brought on by options expiration. Recently, we made a quick profit shorting the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). Over the past three sessions GDXJ has been forming a base and it appears that it may be ready for a bounce. GDXJ may provide a shorting opportunity on a rally into the 20-day EMA. We will be monitoring this ETF closely for a possible re-entry. Yesterday, the ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials ETF (SMN) formed a reversal candle as it severely undercut its 50-day MA, but reversed to close back above this key mark. A volume fueled rally above $20.20 could provide a long opportunity in this ETF. We are adding SMN to the watchlist. Trade details are available in the watchlist section of the newsletter. Our open position in AGA continues to consolidate just above $20.00. As a reminder, we raised the stop in this ETF to breakeven. Quadruple options expiration generally brings whippy price action to the market, and Friday was no exception. Stocks closed at session lows and also near the lows for the week. The longer the market consolidates at the lows of this most recent selloff, the more likely the next move will be lower. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 20, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed lower on Monday on light trade. Despite posting early gains, all five major indices ended in the red, with higher beta issues leading the decline. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.9% while the S&P MidCap 400 lost 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all lost support of their respective three day lows, as they closed near session lows. By the closing bell these three indices posted losses of 0.8%, 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. Market internals were mixed on Monday. As might be expected following a quadruple witching options expiration day, market volume was considerably lighter. Turnover dropped by a whopping 38.0% on the Nasdaq and 39.0% on the NYSE. Declining volume was higher than advancing volume on both exchanges. By the closing bell the ratio of down to up volume stood at 10.3 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Since its big breakout move on December 12th, the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO) has been consolidating for the past four days at the highs of the move. EUO has also formed a pennant like formation as it has held support at the 20-period EMA on the 60-minute chart. A move back above the three day high of $20.21 could provide a buy entry trigger in this ETF. Above this key mark a partial trade position could be entered and the remainder of the position above the four day high of $21.32. Alternatively, EUO offers a possible entry on a pullback into its 20-day EMA. Yesterday, on a massive spike in volume, the iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs ETF (REM) formed a reversal candle as it failed to break above resistance of its nine day high. Also, notice the bearish divergence between the price action in REM and the Accumulation-Distribution Histogram. A move below the eight day low of $12.83 could offer a short entry trigger for this ETF. The market continues to struggle to find a bid. However, as we stated in Friday's newsletter, we have still not witnessed wholesale carnage during this selloff. Some sectors are still holding up. On the other hand, many more stocks that have been basing near their 52-week highs have begun to roll over. For the moment, it appears that we are headed lower but we still remain cautious. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 21, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks gapped up sharply on Tuesday and steadily rallied the entire day, to close at session highs. All five major indices ended the session up more that 2.75%. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the surge as it added a whopping 4.2%. The S&P MidCap 400 improved by 3.5%, while the Nasdaq tacked on 3.2%. The S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 3.0% and 2.9% respectively. Market internals were decidedly bullish yesterday. Volume improved by 14.5% on the Nasdaq and 7.5% on the NYSE. Advancing volume overpowered declining volume by 35.4 to 1 on the NYSE and 10.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The sharp jump in volume points directly to institutional participation in the move. Yesterday was a definitive accumulation day for the broad market. Since late November, the ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) has been setting a series of higher lows as it has consolidated along its 20-day EMA. A move above Monday's high of $42.08 could present a long opportunity in this ETF. Yesterday, the Market Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) gapped up and formed an inside candle. Further, it closed back above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A volume fueled move back above Monday's high of $111.84 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. It is days like today that test the mental fortitude of a trader. Not only is it important to have sound trading rules, but it is also important to honor those rules. Naturally, it's upsetting when trades unexpectedly gap against you the way these positions did yesterday. However, you can't become a deer in the headlights or beat yourself up over a legitimate entry. Further, you CANNOT allow hope to enter your thinking. Hope is a dangerous emotion because it leads to very bad trading habits such as not honoring stops and adding to losing trades. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 22, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed mixed on Wednesday on modestly higher volume. Large cap tech stocks weighed down the market for most of the day. After being ravaged by almost 2.5%, the Nasdaq surged higher late in the session to close down only 1.0% on the day. All the other major indices posted modest gains following the late day surge. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 ended higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The S&P 500 also added 0.2%, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally higher. Market internals ended the day mixed. Turnover rose by 4.1% on the Nasdaq but only marginally on the NYSE. However, declining volume outpaced advancing volume on the Nasdaq by 1.6 to 1, while advancing volume held the upper hand by a factor of 2.3 to 1 on the NYSE. Although the broad market closed higher, the gains were not enough to constitute an accumulation day. The Nasdaq saved itself from a certain distribution day disaster as a result of its strong rally into the close. We do not believe it would be correct to classify yesterday's price action in the Nasdaq as distribution, given that the index closed in the upper 25% of its intraday range, and formed a reversal candle. Yesterday, via intraday alert, we entered a small position in the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL). Since breaking out on December 14th, ZSL has spent five sessions forming a bullish pennant. We took small size at this level with a small stop in anticipation of a breakout. Since we got in early we set a wide stop. Depending on how ZSL sets up from here, we may consider adding to the position if the setup warrants doing so. In Wednesday's newsletter we stated that YCS was a potential long candidate, as it has been consolidating at the 20-day EMA over the past three weeks. Based on yesterday's price action we have decided to place YCS on the watchlist. Trade Details are available to our members in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Yesterday's intraday recovery was decisive and provides another sign that bulls may be getting closer to wrestling control of the market. Nonetheless, we don't carry big expectations going into the holiday season. If the market can avoid setting a new swing low between now and the new year, we could be very well setting up for a January rally. But as we've learned over the past several weeks, expect the unexpected when it comes to this market. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 23, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks rose modestly on Thursday, as volume faded. Stocks closed mixed on Wednesday on modestly higher volume. Large cap tech stocks weighed down the market for most of the day. After being ravaged by almost 2.5%, the Nasdaq surged higher late in the session to close down only 1.0% on the day. All the other major indices posted modest gains following the late day surge. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 ended higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The S&P 500 also added 0.2%, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally higher. For a second straight day, market internals ended the session mixed. Volume dropped significantly across on both exchanges. On the Nasdaq turnover slid nearly 19.0%, while on the NYSE it fell 11.5%. Advancing volume did however hold the upper hand across the board. By the closing bell up volume topped down volume by nearly 4.0 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.7 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Given the light volume, we would not consider Thursday a distribution day. During our research last evening, we noticed quite a few Head & Shoulders patterns in the market. In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has formed a very distinct bullish Head and Shoulders. Notice the projected rally for the DJIA should it breakout above its neckline. The projected rally for a H&S pattern is the distance from the head to the neckline, projected above the neckline. The S&P 500 is also forming a distinct H&S, while the Nasdaq is not offering a similar setup. This is not surprising given the way the Nasdaq has lagged the broad market as of late. The iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average ETF (IYT) has formed a distinct, bullish head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. An important characteristic of a legitimate head and shoulders pattern is its symmetry. The H&S pattern for IYT is quite symmetrical and we are now close to the neckline. A move above $90.50 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. If IYT breaks above the neckline, the project rally would be in the vicinity of $100.00. We are placing ITY on the watchlist. Trade details are available to subscribing members in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Yesterday, we opened a position in YCS as it hit its trigger on a big spike in volume. Our other open position (ZSL) continues to act well, as it spent the day consolidating along the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 60-minute chart. ZSL has now formed a distinct pennant formation that appears ready to resolve to the upside. The market continues to show signs of life as we come into the Christmas Holliday. Caution is warranted at this time of year since volume is typically light. Consequently, we suggest sticking with smaller position size until market conditions improve. REMINDER: The market is closed on Monday and there will be no newsletter. The next newsletter will be published on Tuesday, December 27th. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 27, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks moved higher on Friday but on extremely light volume. All five major indices closed in the black, with large cap issues leading the advance. Twenty eight of the thirty DJIA issues closed higher. By the closing bell the Dow Jones Industrial Average had tacked on 1.0%, while the S&P 500 added 0.9%. The Nasdaq managed a 0.7% advance, as the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 improved by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Market internals closed mixed for a third straight day. Turnover was down sharply across the board. On the Nasdaq volume plunged by nearly 36.0% and on the NYSE it dropped 33.2%. Advancing volume outpaced decling volume by a factor of 3.7 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.1 to 1 on the Nasdaq. As is typical for a pre-holiday session, institutional players were absent from the market, as evidenced by the meager volume. Since finding a bottom on December 14th, the ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Agriculture ETN (RJA) has rallied back into resistance of its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. RJA could offer a potential short setup if it forms a reversal candle at the current level, or on a breakdown below the two day low of $8.64. We are monitoring this ETF carefully for a possible short entry. Over the past five sessions the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) has rallied back into resistance of its 20-day EMA. A move above this key mark followed by a sharp reversal could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. Ideally, we will be looking for a reversal candle to form similar to the one described for RJA. The ProShares UltraShort EURO ETF (EUO) has been consolidating in a tight bullish pennant like formation over the past eight sessions. This ETF now appears ready to break out to new highs. A move above the three day high of $20.07 should provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. We would also consider adding to EUO above $20.21 and the recent swing high of $20.32. We are placing EUO on the watchlist. Trade details are provided for our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Friday's pre holiday session was unimpressive as stocks moved lethargically higher on light volume. ZSL appears primed to break to new highs, as its price action continues to tighten. We may consider adding to our ZSL position above the two day high. We remain cautious about the market but feel reasonably confident with our current open positions. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 28, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: In a sleeper of a session, stocks ended mixed, on mixed trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed 0.5% higher while the S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq both added 0.3%. The S&P 500 advanced a meager 0.01% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day fractionally lower. For the fourth time in as many sessions market internals were mixed. Volume rose by 1.6% on the NYSE but fell by 1.4% on the Nasdaq. Interestingly, both exchanges saw declining volume slightly outpace advancing volume. By the closing bell, the spread ratio stood at -1.4 to 1 on the NYSE and -1.1 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Yesterday's lackluster trade points to an absence of institutional participation in the day's action. Since Breaking above resistance of the 200-day MA on December 14th, the Direxion Gold Miners 3X Bear ETF (DUST), has been consolidating above this key mark, as its price action has tightened. Twice over the past three sessions, DUST has found resistance near $42.60. Ideally, we would like to see DUST form an inside candle as this could serve as a launching pad for a move higher. A breakout above the three day high of $42.65 on an uptick in volume, could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. Yesterday, on a burst in volume, the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY) formed a reversal candle as it undercut its 50-day MA, but reversed to close near session highs. A volume powered move back above yesterday's high of $27.30 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. We are tracking PCY closely for a possible long entry. The market showed little signs of life during yesterday's post holiday session. However, it is promising that all of the major indices are consolidating at the two day high. Nonetheless, if we are to move higher from the current levels, it is likely that we will need to see institutions re-enter the market. We would not be surprised to see choppy price action until after the New Year. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.