The Wagner Daily - November 30, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks ended the session mixed Tuesday after surrendering early gains. The tech-rich Nasdaq slid 0.5% after trading in positive territory early in the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 also had issues finding a bid, as it fell 0.3% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P MidCap 400 tacked on small gains of 0.3% 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Market internals also ended the session mixed. Volume was fractionally higher on the Nasdaq but fell just over 4.0% on the NYSE. Declining volume edged out advancing volume on both exchanges. By the closing bell the ratio of declining volume to advancing volume stood at 1.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Market internals were unimpressive and point to a lack of institutional participation in the day's action. Yesterday, via intraday alert, we provided an alternative short entry trigger for QQQ. The initial trade details for QQQ provided in yesterday's newsletter remain valid. However, we have added an alternative short entry setup for QQQ in the event the market is unable to rally above current levels. Whichever setup triggers first is the valid setup. Both sets of trade details are available to our clients in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Since breaking above its 50-day MA on November 21st, the ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EUM) has pulled back into support of this key moving average. Yesterday, EUM formed a distinct reversal candle as it undercut its 50-day MA but reversed to close above this key mark near session highs. A move above the two day high of $34.60 could present a buying opportunity in this inverse ETF. We are placing EUM on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. New trade setups are slowly beginning to emerge as the market has bounced and stabilized over the past two sessions. If the market is able to hold up and rally for another day or two, then many new trading opportunities should begin to emerge. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 1, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks surged higher on Wednesday on a massive spike in trade. All five major indices closed up more than 4.0% and ended the day near session highs. High beta issues led the advance, as the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 spiked 5.9% and 5.0% respectively. The S&P 500 jumped 4.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq both advanced 4.2%. As might be expected, yesterdayâs market internals were decidedly bullish. Turnover skyrocketed on the Nasdaq by 50.6% and on the NYSE by 36.3%. Advancing volume overwhelmed declining volume by a whopping margin of 33.6 to 1 on the NYSE and by over 10.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Given the strength of Wednesdayâs internals, it is apparent that institutional players were actively acquiring stocks. Wednesday was clearly an accumulation day on Wall Street. Since March of this year, the DB Agricultural Double Short ETF (AGA) has been forming a basing pattern as it has attempted to break above resistance near $20.00 on five separate occasions. A volume fueled move above the November 25th high of $20.39 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. Alternatively, an undercut of the 20-day EMA may also provide a buy entry for AGA. We are monitoring this AGA closely for a possible long entry. The S&P Select Consumer Staples SPDR ETF (XLP) broke out of a multi-week consolidation base yesterday and is now poised to challenge its 52-week high at $32.46. It is not advisable to chase this trade now that it has broken out. Rather, a pullback into support near $31.60 offers a more favorable entry point for this potential long candidate. Due to yesterdayâs massive move higher, we decided to remove both the QQQ and EUM short setups from the watchlist. When violent moves against the predominant trend occur, we find it prudent to step back from the market and re-evaluate market conditions. This holds particularly true when the shift in market sentiment is driven by policy changes of the central banking system. Thereâs a saying on Wall Streetâ¦âDonât fight the Fedâ. In this case we are choosing to not fight the decisions made by the worldâs central banks. Although we donât have an official buy signal from the market we are inclined to focus our attention on identifying potential long candidates. All we need now is a confirmation day for a buy signal to be confirmed. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2011 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 2, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks ended the day mixed on light trade. Following Wednesday's explosive move higher, the major indices spent yesterday consolidating near the previous day's highs. The Nasdaq was the only index to end the session higher, as it posted a modest 0.2% gain. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.9% while the S&P MidCap 400 slid 0.6% on the session. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posted small losses of 0.2%. Market internals also ended the session mixed. Turnover dropped sharply on both exchanges. By the closing bell volume on the Nasdaq was down by 24.0% and on the NYSE by 32.1%. Declining volume slightly outpaced advancing volume on the NYSE by a ratio of 1.4 to 1. However, advancing volume edged out declining volume on the Nasdaq by a factor of 1.3 to 1. Yesterday's price and volume action was typical for a market coming off of a big reversal day. In Thursday's newsletter we stated that AGA may present a buying opportunity with, "â¦an undercut of the 20-day EMA". Yesterday, on an expansion in volume, AGA formed a reversal candle as it undercut its 20-day EMA and rallied to end the session in the top third of its trading range. A move back above Thursdays high of $19.71 could provide a buy entry trigger for AGA. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) has demonstrated excellent relative strength over the past several weeks. While the broad market struggled to regain support of the 200-day MA, this ETF reclaimed and maintained support of this key moving average. A move above the two day high of $39.25 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. In the wake of a big breakout day, the markets performed as might be expected yesterday, as they consolidated at the two day high. This type of price action is typical for a market preparing for a move higher. With the immediate fear of a European meltdown apparently in check, the broad market appears ready to make another move higher. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 5, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks began the day on strong footing but faded into the close to end the session mixed. The small-cap Russell 2000 both managed to close higher by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. The Nasdaq ended the session barely above the breakeven mark, while both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. During the session all three of these indices were up by over 1.0%. For the second session in a row market internals were mixed. Volume dropped on the Nasdaq by 10.0%, while it increased on the Big Board by 4.1%. Declining volume edged out advancing volume on the Nasdaq by a ratio of 1.1 to 1, while on the NYSE advancing volume outpaced declining volume by a factor of 1.4 to 1. Our position in EUO continues to act well as it has tested and held support of the 20-day EMA. Also notice that the price action in EUO noticeably diverged from the Accumulation/Distribution technical indicator during the recent pullback. The Accumulation Distribution (by price and volume) indicator uses the relationship between the open and the close of the price bar, and the range of the bar, to determine whether the combination of price and volume should be characterized as Accumulation (buying pressure) or Distribution (selling pressure). The use of both price and volume provides an important insight with respect to the interaction of the two, thus revealing a different perspective as opposed to analyzing each independently. The calculation of Accumulation Distribution is a running total and therefore, the trend direction (relative value), of Accumulation Distribution is more important than its numeric value (absolute value). A divergence between price and Accumulation Distribution is often used as a leading indicator that a trend reversal may be nearing. Since this indicator is generally considered a leading indicator it can provide a signal that a trend reversal may be underway well in advance of the actual reversal. Therefore, it is generally not used in isolation to predict reversals. Other indicators such as moving averages, support levels, oscillators and reversal candles are typically used in conjunction with Accumulation Distribution to provide a more accurate confirmation as to the timing of the potential price reversal. In the case of EUO, the Accumulation Distribution indicator is suggesting that EUO is being accumulated despite its recent drop in price. Yesterday, on increasing volume, EWJ overcut its 20-day EMA but reversed to close near session lows. EWJ also found resistance at the three day high of $9.43. A move below the two day low of $9.30 could present a shorting opportunity for this ETF. Although the stock market spiked sharply last week in response to the central banks coordinated drop in interest rates, it is interesting to note that rates on two and ten year Italian bonds continue to hover near 7%. The seven percent level is what's generally considered unsustainable for the Italian economy. Further, the yield on three year bonds in France actually went up in last week's auction. This suggests that the market is still nervous about the situation in Europe, and although the short term liquidity crisis may have been averted, the longer term prospect is still considered shaky. This type of bond market action also suggests that volatility may still remain persistent in the stock market. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 6, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Equities closed higher on Monday on modestly higher trade. The market gapped up at the open and consolidated near session highs for most of the day. However, around 1:30 pm the market sold off sharply, before recovering into the close. Stocks did however finish well off the highs. All five major indices ended higher with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way. The high beta index ended the day up 1.6%. The S&P MidCap 400 tacked on 1.3%, while the Nadaq added a solid 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed 1.0% higher, while the Dow was the day's laggard, as it posted a more modest 0.65% gain. Market internals were moderately bullish on Monday. Volume closed up on the Nasdaq by 2.2% and on the NYSE by 2.4%. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume on both exchanges. By the closing bell the spread ratio stood at 6.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq in favor of advancing volume. Yesterday, on a massive spike in volume, the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ) formed a reversal candle, as it overcut its 20 and 50 day moving averages and closed near the lows of the the day. Also notice the divergence between the Accumulation-Distribution Histogram and the price action in this ETF. A move below yesterday's low of $29.40 may present a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are placing GDXJ on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter. For the second time in as many days, the iShares 20yr+ Lehman Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) gapped down, but rallied to close near session highs. Further, this ETF is now poised to break above resistance of its 20-day EMA. A volume assisted move above yesterday's high of $118.83 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. We are watching this setup closely for a potential entry. EUO posted another accumulation day yesterday, as it recovered from an early morning gap down, to close in the black and near session highs. Despite the positive price action and positive internals yesterday, we are not inclined to classify the session as an accumulation day. Over the past several days the market appears to be churning. Each time it has attempted to move higher, the bid has dried up. It is also concerning that the dollar has been moving higher with the broad market. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 7, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: On an uneventful day in the markets, stocks ended the session mixed on light trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed the most resiliency as it posted a 0.4% gain. The S&P 500 tacked on 0.1%, as the small-cap Russell 2000 closed at the breakeven mark. The Nasdaq slid by 0.2% while the S&P MidCap 400 was the day's loser, as it shed 0.3%. Market internals ended mixed on the day. Turnover fell across the board. On the Nasdaq, trade dropped by 11.6% and on the NYSE it fell by 10.6%. For the first time in recent memory, advancing volume closed dead even with declining volume on the NYSE. However, declining volume held the upper hand on the Nasdaq as it outpaced advancing volume by a ratio of 1.5 to 1. Tuesday's light volume points to an absence of institutional participation in the day's action. Recently, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has exhibited excellent relative strength to the broad market, as it has reclaimed support of its 200-day MA. If XHB can consolidate for a few days above this key mark, then it becomes more likely that the next move will be higher. We will be monitoring this ETF closely as a potential long candidate. Since reclaiming its 200-day MA on November 10th, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) has formed a bullish cup and handle like pattern, and now appears ready for a move higher. A rally above the December 5th high of $39.50 could provide a buy entry trigger for this ETF. We are placing USO on the watchlist. Trade details are available in the watchlist segment of the newsletter for our subscribers. Our open positions in EUO and GDXJ performed well early in the session, but then reversed later in the day. However, both ETFs made their intraday moves on light volume. For the fourth consecutive day, all of the major indices have been consolidating above their respective 200-period moving averages on the 60-minute chart. Typically, the longer this type of consolidation continues, the more likely the next move will be higher. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 8, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks ended the day mixed in another skittish session. Stocks fell sharply at the open but recovered to close near sessions highs on stronger trade. By the closing bell the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 had slid 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The Nasdaq closed just fractionally lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the day's best performer, as it tacked on 0.4%. The S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.2%. For the second day in a row, market internals were mixed. Volume climbed by 11.0% on the Nasdaq and by 14.0% on the Big Board. However, declining volume outpaced advancing volume on the Nasdaq by a factor of 1.2 to 1. On the NYSE advancing volume outperformed declining volume by 1.4 to 1. Yesterday's sharp intraday reversal and higher volume, point to institutional accumulation despite the mixed price action. Yesterday also marked the fifth consecutive consolidation day for the broad market. The iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY) formed a reversal candle yesterday as it sold off sharply, tested the lows of the trading range, but ultimately recovered to close near session highs. A volume powered move back above the three day high of $53.17 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. We are placing DVY on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter. On December 1st, the DB Agricultural Double Short ETF (AGA) formed a distinct reversal candle, as it undercut its 20-da EMA. This price action serves to sweep stops and shake any weak hands out of the trade. Yesterday, on a burst in volume, AGA demonstrated relative strength as it gapped higher and closed near session highs. Further, it tested the high of the reversal candle established on December 1st. A volume fueled move above yesterday's high of $19.73 could provide a buy entry trigger in this ETF. We are placing it on the watchlist. Trade details are posted in the watchlist section of the newsletter for our subscribers. The market appears to be headed higher, as it has been consolidating for five consecutive days at the highs of the November 30th rally. However, the intraday volatility warrants caution and we have therefore reduced our trade size to account for the whippy price action. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 9, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks tumbled sharply on Thursday on increased trade. All five major indices closed down for the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 demonstrated the most weakness as it slumped 3.1%. The S&P MidCap 400 dropped 2.6% while the S&P 500 slid by just over 2.1%. After showing relative strength to the S&P early in the session, the Nasdaq ended the day down 2.0%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared the best on the day, as it contained losses at 1.6%. Market internals cast a bearish shadow over the market yesterday. Volume expanded by 10.3% on the Nasdaq and 1.0% on the NYSE. On the NYSE Declining volume overwhelmed advancing volume by a whopping 34.0 to 1, while the Nasdaq saw declining volume fare better than advancing volume by 6.1 to 1. The uptick in volume combined with the strong declining volume points directly to institutional selling. Therefore, we would classify yesterday as a distribution day for the broad market. Yesterday, on an increase in volume, the iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market ETF (EWW) gapped down and sold off to close at session lows. EWW is now testing support of its 20-day EMA. A move below yesterday's low of $54.18 could present a short entry trigger for this ETF. The S&P Select Consumer Staples SPDR ETF (XLP) sold off yesterday on declining volume, and is now testing support of the November 30th low ($31.62). XLP has been one of the strongest ETFs in the market and a pullback to the 20-day EMA could provide a buy entry for this ETF. We covered our short position in GDXJ yesterday for a solid gain. We made the decision to exit the trade early in large part due to the recent whipsaw action in the market. Thursday brought another strange day of trading, as a large proportion of ETFs that had reversed to close near session highs on Wednesday, gapped down sharply yesterday and closed near session lows. Many ETFs also broke below key support levels. As we've pointed out quite often lately, there is a clear lack of follow through in the market and this has made for very challenging trading. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 12, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks reclaimed most of Thursday's losses on Friday, but on lackluster trade. The major indices all closed well in the black as the higher beta indices led the advance. The small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq tacked on solid gains of 3.1%, 2.3% and 1.9% respectively. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a 1.6% advance. Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume dropped across the board. Trade on the Nasdaq slid by 9.8%. On the NYSE, Volume fell by just over 13.0%. However, both exchanges advancing volume top declining volume by a wide margin. By the closing bell, the spread ratio stood at a positive 10.9 to 1 on the NYSE and a plus 7.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Despite the positive price action, Friday's light volume suggests institutions were on the sidelines. After undercutting and closing below support of the 20-day EMA on Thursday, the ProShares Ultra Dow Jones-AIG Crude Oil ETF (UCO) reversed and closed higher on Friday, on an increase in volume. UCO is now poised for a potential move higher. A move above the December 8th high of $42.40 could provide a long entry trigger for this ETF. We are placing UCO on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter. Yesterday, on a massive spike in volume, the SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF (RWR) gapped up and rallied for most of the day, to close near session highs. A move above yesterday's high of $62.89 could provide a long opportunity in RWR. We are also placing RWR on the watchlist. Trade details can be found in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Yesterday brought solid price action but trade was light. However, many potential new leadership candidates broke out on Friday, which is encouraging. If we are to head higher however, then we need to see a spike in volume to confirm the positive price action. A bullish confirmation day on Monday would be ideal. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - December 13, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks took back most of Friday's gains but, once again, trade was light. However, the market did manage to recover into the close, and finished off of session lows. All five major indices ended the session in the red, with the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the decline. By the closing bell, midcap stocks slid 1.7%, while small-cap issues were off 1.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%. For the second time in as many days, market internals were mixed. Volume ended the day lower by 6.1% on the Nasdaq and 7.5% on the NYSE. The ratio of declining to advancing volume ended the session at 11.6 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. For the second day in a row the light volume indicates that institutions are still on the sidelines. Yesterday, on well above average volume, the Retail HOLDRS ETF (RTH) undercut its 20-day EMA, and rallied to form a reversal candle as it closed near session highs. The high of today's reversal candle could serve as a buy entry trigger for this ETF. Ideally, we would like to see RTH consolidate for a few days in a tight range before attempting a move higher. We are monitoring this ETF carefully for a possible buy entry. Yesterday, on a big spike in volume, the S&P Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index ETF (XLY) formed a distinct bullish reversal candle. A volume fueled move above the three day high of $39.49 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. Our open positions in both EUO and AGA performed well yesterday. However, given the lack of follow through in the market, we will be looking to protect gains should any signs of weakness appear in either ETF. If we see a gap up of these positions in the morning we will likely close both trades. The market continues to send mixed signals, as it struggles to find a direction. For the third consecutive day the market ended the day at the polar opposite of where it closed the previous session. This type of whipsaw action makes for a difficult trading environment. However, it is encouraging that the broad market undercut, but held support at the three day low. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.