The Wagner Daily - November 15, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks slid moderately lower on Monday on light trade. All five major indices closed in the bottom third of their respective trading ranges. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the move lower as it fell 1.6% on the session. The S&P MidCap 400 dropped 1.1% while the S&P 500 lost 1.0%. The Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed the most resiliency as they shed 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. Market internals ended the day mixed for a third consecutive day. Volume was considerably lower across the board as it fell by 12.6% on the Nasdaq and by 11.2% on the Big Board. Declining volume topped advancing volume by a ratio of 5.7 to 1 on the NYSE and by a factor of 3.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Monday's price and volume action point to an absence of institutional participation in the selloff. Consequently, we would not categorize Monday as a distribution day in the market. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has recently reclaimed support of its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Further, GLD has now begun consolidating above these key marks. Ideally we would like to see GLD pull back and set a higher low by undercutting the 20-day EMA. This type of price action would help to form a base for the next move higher. Alternatively, a move above the two day high of $174.05 could present a buying opportunity For those of you new to the newsletter, you may have noticed that we haven't put many trades on lately and that commentary has been fairly light in the morning chat sessions. This is not always the case. However, when market conditions are not conducive to trading we don't trade. Our methodology is rules based and requires that both the proper market conditions and specific trade setups are present before entering trades. Further, each trade must present at least a 2 to 1 risk/reward ratio. In order to make money in trading, the odds must be favorable. Otherwise, your trading success rate would have to be unrealistically high. Only 55% to 60% of our trades are successful, yet our newsletter returns have been impressive because of our strict trade entry and risk/reward requirements. We refer to this as the "math behind the trade". The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 16, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks moved higher on Tuesday on an uptick in trade. All major indices closed in the black with the Russell 2000 leading the charge. By the closing bell the small-cap index posted a 1.4% gain. The Nasdaq tacked on 1.1% while the S&P MIdCap 400 added 1.0%. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed on the day but still posted gains of 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Market internals were bullish on Tuesday. Volume spiked on the Nasdaq by 21.5% and on the NYSE by 19.1%. Advancing volume topped declining volume on both exchanges, with the spread ratio ending at a plus 1.8 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The uptick in volume accompanied by the higher advancing volume, suggests institutional buying on Tuesday. We would therefore categorize yesterday as an accumulation day for the market. The Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) has been consolidating along its 20-day EMA as it has been setting a sequence of higher lows. This contraction in price action is one of the things we look for in stocks that are potential long candidates. Yesterday, on a big spike in volume, TNA undercut its 20-day EMA but recovered to close back above this key mark and at the three day high. A move above yesterday's high of $47.64 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. XRT has spent most of the past three weeks consolidating at its 20-day EMA. Since establishing a higher-low on November 9th XRT has reclaimed the 20-day EMA and has been consolidating above this mark. Trade details are available to our subscribing members in the watchlist section of the newsletter. It is noteworthy that the market was able to overcome an early morning gap down and a significant drop in the S&P and Nasdaq futures in overnight trading. This is precisely the type of price action that we like to see from a market that is preparing for a potential move higher. As we've stated many times recently, the key now is to avoid distribution days as this could quickly weaken any potential rally. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 17, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks were pummeled yesterday as they reversed sharply in late session trading to close near session lows. Trade was brisk. All five major indices posted similar results. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both plunged 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P MidCap 400 and small-cap Russell 2000 all fell 1.6%. Wednesday was clearly not a good day for Wall Street. In stark contrast to Tuesday's results, market internals were decidedly bearish on Wednesday. Volume surged across the board. On the Nasdaq turnover increased by almost 16.0% while on the NYSE it climed 14.5%. In addition, declining volume held the upper hand on both exchanges. By the closing bell the ratio of advancing to declining volume stood at -5.5 to 1 on the NYSE and -2.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The late session surge in volume accompanied by stronger declining volume suggests that institutions were actively participating in the selling. Wednesday was a clear distribution day for the broad market. Yesterday, on heavier trade, the iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (EWJ) lost a major support level at $9.17. Prior to yesterday EWJ has held support at this level dating back to July 2009. Yesterday was a clear short entry trigger for EWJ. However, it is not advisable to "chase the trade". Rather, we prefer to wait for a bounce if we were to enter EWJ on the short side. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has come under pressure lately as it has posted consecutive distribution days. Further, GDXJ is now below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, GDXJ is stilling clinging to support of its uptrend line. A loss of support of the uptrend line could result in a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are monitoring this setup carefully for a potential short entry. Despite the fact that the market posted another distribution day on Wednesday, the running 20-day total of distribution days remains at four. Distribution days are counted based on the most recent twenty day period. The distribution day that occurred on October 17th should no longer be counted since it falls outside of the most recent 20-day timeframe. Still, the number of distribution days remains high for a market that is trying to rally and caution is warranted. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 18, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed down sharply for a second consecutive day on higher trade. All five exchanges closed lower with the Nasdaq showing the most weakness. By the closing bell, the tech-rich index had shed 2.0%. The S&P MidCap 400 followed closely as it dropped 1.9%. The S&P 500 slid 1.7% while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed the most resiliency on the day as it contained losses to 1.1%. For a second consecutive day market internals came up bearish. Volume climbed by 13.5% on the Nasdaq and 8.8% on the Big Board. Declining volume once again overpowered advancing volume across the board. The ratio of declining to advancing volume ended the day at 11.4 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Thursday's market internals point to a second consecutive day of institutional distribution. Further, yesterday was also a bearish follow through day, and the sixth distribution day on the S&P 500 in the last twenty days. The Nasdaq is has seen four distribution days in the same timeframe. Given the recent build up in distribution days and the lack of bullish follow through in recent breakouts our market timing model has shifted to a sell signal. We are removing XRT from the watchlist because the setup is no longer valid given the recent selling pressure in the market. However, XRT is still showing relative strength amidst the market weakness and as long as it holds support at the 50-day MA, it still provides an opportunity on the long side. XRT must now stabilize and consolidate in order to establish a new setup for a long entry. We will continue to monitor this ETF closely. In a recent newsletter we stated that GLD could offer a possible long entry on a pullback into its 20 and 50-day moving averages. Yesterday, on a major spike in volume, GLD sold off sharply and is now clinging to support of the 50-day MA. GLD must hold support here or it will likely drop quickly and test the 200-day MA. If GLD is able to hold support at the 50-day MA, it will likely take a week or two for a potential long entry to develop. It appears less likely that GLD will be able to hold support at the current levels given yesterday's sharp sell-off. Despite the fact that the market is clearly beginning to struggle it is important to keep in mind that the type of price action we are seeing is not at all unusual for first thrust reversals. This market is capable of turning on a dime as has been evident lately. There's no question that our bullish bias is under duress however, it would be imprudent to jump to the bear camp without further confirmation. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 21, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks ended the session split amidst see-saw price action on Friday. Among the major indices, the day's only winner was the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The blue chip index eked out a 0.2% gain. Both the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 ended the session flat while the S&P MidCap 400 closed fractionally lower. The Nasdaq struggled the most on Friday, as it slid 0.6%. Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume was down sharply on the Nasdaq but only fractionally lighter on the NYSE. By the closing bell trade had dropped a healthy 21.2% on the Nasdaq but was only 0.6% lower on the NYSE. Advancing volume marginally outpaced declining volume on the NYSE by 1.1 to 1. However, on the Nasdaq declining volume held the upper hand as it topped advancing volume by a ratio of 1.6 to 1. Although Friday did not bring a third consecutive distribution day, the market was unable to bounce on the heels of two distribution days. Our market timing model has registered a sell signal and for the moment, we are inclined to avoid the long side of the market. For the past four sessions the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO) has been consolidating just above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A volume assisted move above the two day high of $18.91 could provide a buying opportunity in this inverse ETF. During the recent market rally the iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA) has shown relative weakness as it was unable to even get close to its 200-day MA. EFA is now below support of all of its moving averages. A move below the two day low of $49.03 could present a short entry trigger for this ETF. Trading has been difficult lately as the market struggles to find an identity. Although many stocks were showing promise as potential new leaders, the market has lacked follow through. We are now inclined to look for short entries but will likely look to trade with small size. As of this writing it appears as if the market will gap down sharply on Monday morning. We have no desire to chase the market lower should a big gap down occur. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 22, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks fell sharply on Monday but trade was mixed. Prices dropped across the board as all five major indices closed lower. However, stocks did recover from session lows. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.4% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P MidCap 400 fell 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%. For the second time in as many days, market internals ended the session mixed. Turnover fell on the NYSE by 6.6% but climbed on the Nasdaq by 17.7%. However, declining volume held the upper hand on both exchanges. By the closing bell the ratio of declining volume to advancing volume stood at 14 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Based on the higher volume and higher declining volume we would classify yesterday as a distribution day on the Nasdaq. Yesterday, on increasing volume, the S&P 500 ($SPX.X) lost support of and closed below its 50-day MA. The question now becomes whether or not this broad market index can reclaim this key mark and resist further decline. If the S&P cannot find support at the current level, it is quite possible that we could retest the most recent swing low near 1,100. Despite the recent sell off in the market, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has been demonstrating relative strength. While the S&P 500 has lost support of its 50-day MA, XRT undercut, but held support at this key mark. If XRT continues to exhibit this kind of strength, when the market recovers, this should be one of the first ETFs to move to higher ground. Distribution continued to mar the market landscape yesterday as the Nasdaq, but not the NYSE fell under selling pressure. Our assessment remains bearish but we must now wait for setups to form in order to take short positions. In the meantime we strongly suggest patience in this challenging trading environment. Remember, cash is a position. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 23, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks edged lower on Tuesday on light trade. All of major indices dropped on the day, with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the move lower. The high beta index fell 0.8% yesterday. The S&P MidCap 400 shed 0.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq exhibited the most relative strength on the day as if fell only fractionally. For the third day in a row market internals closed mixed. Volume was down on both exchanges. By the closing bell turnover faded on the Nasdaq by 12.5% and on the NYSE by 6.2%. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume by a ratio of 2.8 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.2 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Institutions were not involved in the day's action as is evidenced by the light turnover across the board. Due to the holiday shortened week, we expect to see light volume Wednesday and Friday. Over the past six days, the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO) has been consolidating in a tight trading range just above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Yesterday, EUO held the two day low and formed a doji candlestick. A volume fueled move above yesterday's high of $18.81 could provide a long entry trigger for this ETF. We are placing EUO on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ) recently lost support of its short term uptrend line and was unable to reclaim support of its 20 and 50-day moving averages. Over the past two sessions GDXJ appears to be stabilizing from its recent decline. A rally back into resistance near the declining 20-day EMA and 50-day MA could provide a shorting opportunity in GDXJ. Due to the holiday shortened week, we don't expect a lot of volume or significant price movement in the market over the next two sessions. Consequently, we don't plan on trading much, but if opportunities present themselves, we are inclined to take on small position size. As a reminder, there will be no newsletter on Thursday since the markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Normal publication will resume on Friday, November 25. Have a great Thanksgiving! The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 25, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Please check out the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide to learn how to get the most from your subscription. Commentary: Due to the holiday shortened session, today's issue of The Wagner Daily will be an abbreviated version. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday on mixed, but surprisingly high, pre-holiday volume. All five major indices plunged more than 2.0%, with the small-cap Russell 2000 losing 3.2%. The S&P MidCap 400 fell 2.7%, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.4%, 2.2% and 2.1% respectively. Market internals were mixed. Volume fell on the Nasdaq by 4.6% but rose on the NYSE by just over 2.0%. Declining volume overwhelmed advancing volume by a factor of 24.3 to 1 on the NYSE and 12 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Based on these figures we would classify Wednesday as a distribution day for the NYSE. EUO hit its trigger and we entered the trade. Full trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. The market continues to slide lower and there appears to be no respite from the selling pressure. However, four consecutive days of mixed internals have saved the market from what could have been complete carnage. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
MTG logo The Wagner Daily - November 28, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: After showing early signs of promise on Friday's holiday shortened session, stocks slid listlessly into the close, as all five major indices closed lower. After being up as much as 0.7% on the session the Nasdaq plunged to close down almost 0.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 took the biggest hit, as it lost a substantial 1.2%. The S&P MidCap 400, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Market internals closed the day mixed. As might be expected on a shortened session, volume dropped across the board. Turnover fell on the Nasdaq by 31.5% and on the NYSE by nearly 24.0%. Declining volume held a slight advantage over advancing volume on the Nasdaq by a factor of 1.5 to 1 on the the NYSE by a factor of 1.4 to 1. Because of the abbreviated session, little useful information could be gleaned from Friday's numbers, other than the market continues to struggle to find a bid. A brief review of the S&P 500 ($SPX.X) across various timeframes provides an interesting perspective as to the market's current structure. The daily chart of the S&P 500 appears to place the index in "no man's land", as the current price action is well below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, yet well above the 200-day MA. However, it is important to note that an inverted hammer candlestick was formed on the daily chart on Friday. Inverted hammers in and of themselves are not considered reversal candles (or buy signals). However, they are often used as an early warning sign that a downtrend may be reaching exhaustion. Whenever an inverted hammer is observed after a protracted selloff and it does not occur near an easily identifiable support level (on the daily chart), we find it useful to reference both the weekly and monthly charts to gain a better picture of the market structure in terms of support and resistance levels. Notice on the weekly chart that the S&P 500 is rapidly approaching support near the 200-day MA. However, the monthly chart of the S&P provides the most pertinent information, as it shows the index is right at support of its 50-day MA. Combined, this information suggests that caution is warranted on the short side and that it may be advisable to lighten up on short positions and/or wait for a bounce in the market before considering new short entries. Although the market has been in a tailspin over the past two weeks, several momentum indicators that we follow suggest that the market may be approaching an oversold level. We would not be surprised to see further selling on Monday but our overnight research is not revealing quality short setups and we are therefore looking to wait for a bounce in the broad market before we consider taking on potential short setups. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 29, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Commentary: Stocks posted impressive gains on Monday amidst higher trade. Stocks gapped up strongly at the open, consolidated for most of the session and ultimately closed near session highs. All five major indices closed well in the black with higher beta issues leading the advance. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000 tacked on a whopping 4.8% gain, while both the Nasdaq and the S&P MidCap 400 surged 3.5%. The S&P 500 tacked on 2.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted an impressive 2.6% gain. Market internals were bullish on Monday but some caution is warranted with regard to the interpretation of this data. Volume increased by 114.0% on the Nasdaq and 99.6% on the NYSE. However, compared to Friday's half-day volume, a massive increase in Monday's volume could reasonably be expected. It is probably more appropriate to compare yesterday's volume with the closing volume on November 23rd (the last full trading session). When compared to last Wednesday's results, yesterday's volume rose by 8.3% on the NYSE but declined by 5.9% on the Nasdaq. Advancing volume overwhelmed declining volume by a whopping margin of 39.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 10.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Taking the adjusted volume data into account, it seems reasonable to conclude that Monday was an accumulation day on the NYSE. The same cannot be said for the Nasdaq as total volume declined session over session. Following a seven day slide, the PowerShares Nasdaq Trust Series 1 (QQQ) rallied sharply yesterday, and now appears headed for a rally back into resistance of its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Now that we have a sell signal in the broad market, a bounce back into this zone of resistance should provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are placing QQQ on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. For those who are unable to short QQQ, a long position in the inverse ETF, QID, would serve as a reasonable proxy for this trade. The iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA) has been one of the weakest ETFs in the market over the past two months. Yesterday, EFA saw its first significant rally in the wake of a nine day selloff. A move back into resistance of the declining 20 and 50 day moving averages could present a short entry trigger for this ETF. Despite yesterday's opening gap down, our open position in EUO performed well for the remainder of the session, as it rallied to close near the day's highs. For the moment we are inclined to let this trade "play out", but are still not immune to tightening the stop should market conditions change. Yesterday's broad market rally was impressive but in the wake of a two week selloff, it was far from unexpected. This bounce in the market should help to produce trading opportunities on the short side of the market. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.