The Wagner Daily - October 27, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: In impressive style, stocks bounced back from early losses to post solid gains on higher trade. The day started off slowly for the market but caught a bid around lunch time and never looked back all the way to the close. All five major indices closed higher on the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the advance as it climbed by almost 2.0%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.4% while the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 tacked on 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Despite the poor earnings news for AMZN, the Nasdaq still closed higher by 0.5%. Market internals were bullish across the board. Turnover spiked by 19.6% on the Nasdaq and 9.2% on the NYSE. ended mixed for a third straight day. Advancing volume overshadowed declining volume by a factor of 4.3 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The positive price action combined with the uptick in volume points directly to institutional buying. Consequently, we would categorize yesterday as an accumulation day on both exchanges. The First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX ETF (FXD) has been hovering for the past three days at its 200-day MA as it attempts to hold this key mark. Yesterday, FXD undercut this moving average and reversed to close near session highs. A volume fueled move above the two day high of $20.77 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. Yesterday, on light volume, the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETN (OIL) sold off and now appears headed for a pullback to support of the 20 and 50-day moving averages. An undercut of these key marks could provide a buying opportunity in OIL. Our position in SLV acted well yesterday as it consolidated just above Tuesday's high. SLV is now forming a bullish pennant formation on the hourly chart and appears ready to make a move higher. With yesterday's rally we now have another bullish confirmation suggesting that the market is ready to move higher. All we need to see now is a breakout of leadership stocks to new highs. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 28, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks skyrocketed on Thursday on a massive spike in volume. The markets gapped up at the open, sold off briefly and rallied for most of the session. However, there appeared to be some profit taking into the close. The major indices all closed considerably higher with higher beta issues leading the surge. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq posted gains of 5.3%, 4.3% and 3.3% respectively. The S&P 500 added an impressive 3.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 2.9%. Needless to say, it was a great day on Wall Street. Nonetheless, caution is warranted since reversal candles formed in several market sectors yesterday. Market internals were nothing short of impressive as volume surged by 32.3% on the Nasdaq and 26.7% on the NYSE. Advancing volume overwhelmed declining volume by a ratio of 18.7 to 1 on the NYSE and 6.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Combined, the positive price action and strong internals point clearly to institutional buying in the market. Thursday was clearly an accumulation day across the board. The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) lost a key support level at $102.05 yesterday as it gapped down and closed in the lower third of its trading range. Further, this move occurred on the highest volume in eleven sessions. A move back below yesterday's low of $101.36 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF is rallying into resistance at its downtrending 50-day MA. An overcut of this key mark followed by a reversal candle could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. Because of the big rally, we decided to exit our position in SLV for a healthy 2.6 point gain (8.2%). In hindsight it was probably the right decision as SLV sold off sharply into the close and formed a reversal candle. Given the recent run up in the market we felt it was prudent to take profits since we are now at a major resistance level. We would not be surprised to see some selling over the next few days and are respectful of the massive selling that occurred just a few short weeks ago in the market. Although we have shifted our market bias to bullish recently, if this is a bear market rally then a turn here could be vicious. It was only prudent to take profits given all of these factors. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 31, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed mixed of Friday on light volume. High beta stocks showed relative weakness on the day as the small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and Nasdaq finished lower by 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by 0.2% while the S&P ended fractionally up on the day. Market internals ended mixed on the day. Volume fell dramatically on both exchanges. By the closing bell turnover on the Nasdaq was down by over 35.0% and on the NYSE by 30.0%. Advancing volume ended the session fractionally higher across the board. Market internals reacted much as would be expected as the market took a rest following Thursday's big accumulation day. As we stated in Friday's newsletter we are of the opinion that the market may be approaching an overbought level. Our broad view of the market remains bullish but we also believe caution is now warranted on the long side of the market for the short run. A quick look at the NYSE, S&P 500 and Nasdaq support this reasoning. The NYSE is now approaching the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern that it formed over the summer. As you may recall, the NYSE was the index that provided us with the biggest clue that the market could be in for a big move lower back in late July. Notice that all three indices are at important resistance levels and very close to big reversal days that were the fuel for the recent bear market. As stated earlier, we feel that caution is warranted for the moment. Although we have received a bullish signal in the market, we are still not seeing the emergence of new leadership stocks. We expect these stocks to being breaking out soon. However, until they do, we cannot eliminate the possibility that the market could reverse quickly at the current levels. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 1, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks fell sharply on Monday on mixed trade. The day ended with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closing below their respective 200-day moving averages. Smaller cap issues led the decline as the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 plunged 2.5% and 2.6% respectively. The S&P 500 also dropped 2.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.3%. The Nasdaq put in the day's best performance but still fell 1.9%. Market internals were mixed on the Nasdq but bearish on the NYSE. Volume increased by 4.2% on the NYSE but fell on the Nasdaq by 1.9%. However, declining volume topped advancing volume across the board. By the closing bell the spread ratio stood at a negative 15.1 to 1 on the NYSE and minus 6.1 to 1 on the Nasdaq. We would classify Monday as a distribution day for the NYSE due to the higher volume and significantly higher ratio of declining volume. What is concerning about yesterday's action is that it represents the second distribution day on the NYSE since this rally began in early October. Yesterday, on increasing volume, the iShares US Real Estate Index ETF (IYR) formed a reversal candle as it overcut its 200-day MA. A move below the two day low of $56.93 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We will be monitoring this setup closely for a potential short entry. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) sold off on declining volume yesterday as it broke support of the two day low. Further retracement into support of the 20-day and 200-day moving averages could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. In yesterday's newsletter we stated, "â¦we are of the opinion that the market may be approaching an overbought level. We also believe caution is now warranted on the long side of the market for the short run". Those words proved to be accurate as the market tumbled sharply on the day. There's nothing unhealthy about a market pullback but it's never good when the market sells off on increasing volume. We generally don't like to see more than four distribution days in a month and we now have two in the past five days on the NYSE and the S&P 500. If we have a follow through day to the downside on Tuesday then we'll have to begin to seriously consider the possibility that the recent rally was nothing more than a bear market retracement. Time will tell. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 2, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks were hit hard on Tuesday on a significant uptick in trade. At the opening bell the market gapped down sharply. It found some footing in the early afternoon but eventually sank into the close to end the day near session lows. All five major indices closed more than two percent lower. For the second time in as many days the plunge was led by higher beta issues. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq had lost 3.7%, 3.3% and 2.9% respectively. The S&P 500 dropped 2.8% while the Dow Jones Indusrtial Average slid 2.5%. The session was a very difficult one for Wall Street. Market internals were decidedly bearish as both volume and declining volume skyrocketed. Trade on the Nasdaq spiked by just over 30.0% while on the NYSE volume jumped by 31.9%. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume by a wide margin on both exchanges. By the closing bell the advancing volume to declining volume ratio stood at a negative 15.9 to 1 on the NYSE and negative 9.9 to 1 on the NYSE. The spike in volume points to institutional distribution on both exchanges. Yesterday would also qualify as a follow through day for the NYSE. Last week we exited a long position in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) prior to reaching the projected target. It turns out that we were able to close this position within ten cents of its most recent swing high. Our reasoning for exiting the trade early included the fact that the broad market was showing signs of being over bought, SLV had filled the gap created on September 23rd, we were approaching major resistance at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and SLV was beginning to show signs of losing momentum following a significant three day move. Further, we didn't like the risk/reward associated with trying to squeeze an additional 50-80 cents out of the trade with the potential of sliding back to the 20-day EMA. Finally, the market has lacked follow through recently and to stay in the trade would have been expecting a lot from the market. Combined, these reasons added up to one logical conclusion...take profits. The iShares Japan MSCI Index ETF (EWJ) is quickly approaching a major support level first established almost a year ago. A move below the 12 month low of $9.15 could provide a short entry trigger for EWJ. We are watching this setup carefully for a potential entry should the broad market conditions deteriorate because EWJ is showing significant relative weakness. Despite the fact that today was a distribution day our bullish stance on the market remains intact. However, the NYSE has now recorded a third distribution day and the Nasdaq a second distribution day since providing buy signals last week. This has made for a very difficult trading environment and appears suited mainly for day trading and one day swing trades. Consequently, it is very easy to overtrade and get chopped up in this environment because the volatility requires almost perfect market timing. Sometimes is just better to be mainly on the sidelines. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 3, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Equities rebounded solidly on Wednesday but the impact of the rally was lessened by light trade. All of the major indices closed higher led by a 2.7% gain in the small-cap Russell 2000. The S&P MidCap 400 closed higher by 2.2% while the S&P 500 added 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 1.5% while the Nasdaq was the day's laggard as it posted a 1.3% gain. Internals were mixed on Wednesday as volume plunged by 16.3% on the Nasdaq and a massive 29.2% on the NYSE. Still, advancing volume topped declining by 8.9 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. All in all, it was an unimpressive rally due to the light volume. Light volume is a clear sign that institutions were not participating in the day's action. This serves to cast doubt on the breadth and strength of the rally. The Pharamceutical Holders ETF (PPH) has recently pulled back and held support of both its 200 and 20-day moving averages. During the recent bear market move PPH demonstrated very good relative strength and appears ready for a move higher. A move back above the two day high of $68.28 could provide a long entry trigger for this ETF. We are placing PPH on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our clients in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. The S&P Select Sector Technology SPDR ETF (XLK) has pulled back and held support of its 20-day EMA and 200-day MA. A volume fueled move back above yesterday's high of $25.72 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. The market appears staged for a move higher. In the face of very negative news it has been holding support and now appears ready to "climb the wall of worry" to higher ground. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 4, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: On whipsaw price action, stocks rallied strongly after early session selling, to close near the highs of the day. The day began with the market gapping higher followed by sharp selling in the first half hour of trade. However, stocks recovered quickly and rallied virtually the entire day and surged into the close. All five major indices closed well in the black with high beta issues leading the charge. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq were up 2.5%, 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. The S&P 500 tacked on 1.9% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 1.8% higher. Market internals were bullish on Thursday. Volume increased on the Nasdaq by 9.2% and on the NYSE by 10.4%. Further, advancing volume outperformed declining volume by a factor of 5.5 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The higher volume and strong price action into the close suggest that institutions were actively buying. Thursday was a clear accumulation day on Wall Street. Our watchlist candidate, PPH, hit its trigger price yesterday and we entered the trade. PPH performed well yesterday and by the close we were up about 0.7%. Via an intraday alert we also entered a long position in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). We liked the trade because XRT had formed a reversal candle on Wednesday after early session selling pressure. XRT offered a reasonable risk/reward entry just above Wednesday's high. Trade details are available to our members in the open positions section of the newsletter. The First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlpaDEX ETF (FXD) appears ready for another move higher. Since losing support of its 200-day MA on November 1st, FXD has undercut and tested support of its 20-day EMA twice but both times managed to rally and close near session highs. A volume assisted move back above yesterday's high of $20.59 could provide a buying opportunity in this ETF. The market continues to demonstrate resiliency. In the face of overwhelmingly negative news it continues to consolidate near the highs of this recent run. Nonetheless, as stated in yesterday's newsletter, we must remain keenly aware that a significant number of distribution days have occurred over the past two weeks and it would only take two or three more days of distribution over the next two weeks to put the current rally in jeopardy. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 7, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: After a poor start, stocks closed well off session lows but trade was light. Four of the five major indices ended the day modestly lower but the S&P MidCap 400 managed to eke out a 0.1% gain. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed down by 0.7% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. The market closed slightly down for the week. Internals were mixed on Friday. Volume finished lower on the Nasdaq by 8.3% and on the NYSE by 18.7%. However, declining volume outpaced advancing volume by 1.8 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.2 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The light volume suggests that institutions were not actively participating in the day's action. For the past four sessions the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) has been consolidating in a two point trading range just below its 200-day MA. A volume fueled rally above the two day high of $58.29 could offer a buying opportunity in VNQ. Since a failed breakout attempt above the 200-day MA on October 27th, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF (IWF) has been consolidating between its 20-day EMA and 200-day moving average. A thrust above the two day high of $58.94 could provide a buy entry trigger for IWF. We are monitoring this ETF closely for a possible buy entry. The market closed slightly lower on the week but this type of price action could be expected given the big run up that has occurred since the August 4th reversal. More and more stocks seem to be emerging as potential breakout candidates. The more the market consolidates at the current levels, the more likely the next significant move will be higher. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 11, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks rebounded on Thursday but trade was light. All five of the major indices ended the session in positive territory, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The blue chip index posted a solid 1.0% gain. Both the S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 posted 0.9% gains. The S&P MidCap 400 tacked on 0.5% while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.1% gain. Internals ended the day mixed. Volume dropped on the Nasdaq by 11.5% and on the NYSE by 17.5%. However, advancing volume finished slightly higher than declining volume by a factor of 2.5 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Although the market bounced back yesterday, the lackluster market internals and lack of breadth in the rally suggest that institutional players were on the sidelines. Friday should provide a better gauge as to the market's true reaction to Wednesday's distribution. Although we exited our positions in XRT and PPH yesterday, both ETFs are still potential long candidates. In volatile markets it sometimes makes sense to take a trade off the table and re-enter if and when another setup presents itself. XRT could provide a partial position entry above the two day high ($52.50). On Wednesday, XRT pulled back on lighter volume and undercut the 20-day EMA. Yesterday it formed a reversal candle on higher volume, suggesting it was being accumulated. We may consider building a position in this ETF by taking small size above the two day high. However, we prefer to make the call intraday due to the recent volatility in the market. Ideally, XRT needs to consolidate for a week or two more in order to build a sufficient base from which to launch a potential rally. PPH also performed well on Thursday but requires more sideways action in order for a quality setup to develop. What we would like to see in PPH is the formation of a higher low followed by additional consolidation prior to a possible move higher. On the opening gap up we exited our open positions in XRT and PPH. XRT yielded a two percent loss while the PPH trade ended up being a scratch. We made the judgment call to exit the trades because we felt it was important to protect capital in light of Wednesday's broad based distribution. All of the major indices managed to hold support at or near their respective 20-day EMAs in the aftermath of Wednesday's carnage. Further, leadership stocks held up surprisingly well over the past two sessions, suggesting the market may not be ready to roll over just yet. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - November 14, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks surged higher on Friday as trade slid. All five major indices closed higher by 2.0% or more. The small-cap Russell 2000 was the day's biggest winner as it tacked on 2.7%. The S&P MidCap 400 climbed 2.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average improved 2.2%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended the session up by 2.0%. For a second time in as many days, market internals were mixed. Advancing volume significantly outpaced declining volume on both exchanges. By the closing bell the spread ratio stood at +15.9 to 1 on the NYSE and +5.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. However, trade plunged across the board. Volume on the Nasdaq fell over 16.0% and on the NYSE by 18.7%. The light volume suggests that institutional investors were not active on Friday and casts doubt on the strength of the move. The First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) has been setting a sequence of higher lows along its 20-day EMA, as it has consolidated below the 200-day moving average. A move above the November 8th high of $34.62 could present a long opportunity in this ETF. Ideally, we would like to see FDN's price action tighten up just below the 200-day MA prior to the next breakout attempt. Since its second attempt on November 11th to reclaim the 200-day moving average, the iShares MSCI Indonesia Investable Market ETF (EIDO) has seen tightening price action and on Friday closed above this key mark. A move above the three day high of $30.49 offers a potential buy entry trigger for this ETF (1/3rd position size). There is further potential to add to the position above the November 8th high of $30.83. It continues to be difficult to extract profits from the market. Every time it appears the market is gaining upside momentum, a big distribution day creeps in to slow things down. If there were not so many distribution days in the past two weeks we likely would have been more inclined to stay in our long positions. However, if we are in the first stage of a bigger move higher, there will be plenty of time to profit from the move. It the meantime, it is prudent to protect capital when the market gets whippy. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.