The Wagner Daily - October 14, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks ended the day mixed on light trade. For the second consecutive day price action was whippy but unlike Wednesday, stocks closed near session highs on Thursday. Further there was a clear divergence between the Nasdaq and the other indices. By the closing bell the tech-rich index had tacked on 0.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. The S&P MidCap 400 closed higher by a modest 0.2%. For the fifth time in seven days market internals were mixed. Volume was down sharply across the board. On the Nasdaq turnover fell by 15.0% and on the NYSE by 16.0%. However, the advancing volume to declining volume ratio posted mixed results. On the Big Board declining volume topped advancing volume by a factor of 1.9 to 1 but on the Nasdaq advancing volume held the upper hand as the spread ratio ended the session at a plus 2.0 to 1. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ) formed a reversal candle on Wednesday as it overcut resistance of its declining 20-day EMA. Yesterday GDXJ tested support at the four day low before reversing to close near resistance of the 20-day EMA. A volume fueled move back below the four day low of $29.68 could provide a short entry trigger for this ETF. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has spent the past two sessions churning at resistance of its 200-day MA. Yesterday, on higher volume XRT attempted to move higher but ultimately reversed and closed in the bottom half of the trading range as the market closed near session highs. A move back below the two day low of $49.64 could result in a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are monitoring XRT carefully for a possible short entry. The market is clearly at an inflection point as there has been a battle between bears and bulls over the past two sessions. This battle has manifested itself in very whippy price action. However, the lack of volume and overall weak internals suggests that bears may soon wrestle control of the action and that we could be headed for another leg lower. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 17, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks surged higher on Friday helping the Nasdaq post its biggest weekly gain since the initial rally off the March 2009 lows. However, as has been common lately, the rally was accompanied by light trade. All five major indices closed in the black as higher beta issues led the advance. By the closing bell both the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 had added 2.0% while the Nasdaq tacked on 1.8%. The S&P 500 climbed 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the day's laggard but the blue chip index still gained an impressive 1.5%. Market internals ended the session mixed for the sixth time in eight sessions. Volume fell marginally on the Nasdaq but was down a healthy 9.0% on the NYSE. Advancing volume outperformed declining volume by a factor of 7.4 to 1 on the NYSDE and 3.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Despite the outstanding price action in the market over the past week, it is difficult to jump on the bullish bandwagon given the light volume throughout this nine day rally. Two weeks ago we stated that the market may reverse if we see a sharp undercut of support at 1,100 on the S&P 500. Since then the market has rallied eight of the past nine sessions. An indicator that we sometimes use to assist us in our market timing is the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (by price and volume). This indicator is considered a rough leading indicator to market reversals when it diverges significantly for several weeks to several months from price action. As a rule of thumb we like to see at least two divergences over a 4 to 8 week timeframe before we will begin to monitor it more closely. The chart below of the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term ETF (VXX) provides an excellent example of this divergence between price and the Accumulation/Distribution technical indicator. Notice how the VXX set a higher high twice as Accumulation/Distribution failed to confirm. What's most important is the slope of the line and not the absolute value. The Accum./Dist. Indicator remained flat as VXX was setting higher highs. This was a bearish divergence that clearly warranted our attention. However, also notice that the Accum./Dist. Line is still in an uptrend and did not set a lower low with the price action in VXX on Friday. The fact that VXX the Accum/Dist Line for VXX is still in an uptrend and did not set a lower-low with the price action on Friday suggests that caution is warranted on the long side of the stock market. The point is simpleâ¦it may be a bit too early to call off the bear market. Although we had legitimate entries in both SRS and DTO the bullish surge in the market knocked us out of both trades on Friday as our stops were triggered. Our overnight research revealed very few long or short setups and we are satisfied to be in cash until the market provides a clear signal as to its next move. Although we expect a pullback in the market over the next several days, we still expect more upside over the next 2 to 4 weeks. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 18, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks slid lower on Monday amidst higher trade. All five major indices ended the session in the red. Price action was negative for most of the day as the vast majority of shares opened at the high and closed near the low of the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the move lower as it fell 3.3%. The S&P MidCap 400 shed 2.9% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost 2.1%, 2.0% and 1.9% respectively Market internals were bearish across both exchanges but the Nasdaq once again showed relative strength to the broad market for much of the session. Volume increased on the NYSE by almost 10.0% but on the Nasdaq by a more modest 1.2%. By the closing bell, declining volume topped advancing volume by a ratio of 9.1 to 1 on the NYSE and by 3.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Monday was a distribution day for the market as trade increased during the selloff. However, the price and volume action was a far cry from the capitulation we witnessed in the market several weeks ago. For the fourth time in as many days the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ) found resistance at its 20-day EMA yesterday. Further, GDXJ closed near session lows and at the bottom end of the six day trading range. A volume fueled move below the six day low of $29.60 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. Yesterday, on a burst in volume, the Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares ETF (EDZ) reversed off its nine day lows and closed near session highs. A move above resistance at $24.49 could present a buy entry trigger for EDZ. We are monitoring this setup closely for a possible long entry. Via intraday alert we entered a long position in ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO) yesterday. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. As anticipated the market fell under selling pressure at key resistance yesterday. The uptick in volume that accompanied the selloff suggests that market bears may not be quite yet ready to relinquish control. The next few sessions will give us critical insight into the commitment of bulls in most recent move higher and we remain cautious with respect to the short side of the market. Earnings season is once again in force with AAPL and INTC set to announce today. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 19, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks reversed sharply yesterday to score a bullish reversal and confirmation day. The major indices all closed higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the surge as it jumped 3.0%. The S&P MidCap 400 added 2.3% while the S&P 500 closed higher by 2.0%. Both the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 1.6%. Market internals were bullish yesterday. Volume spiked by 15.0% on the Nasdaq and 22.0% on the NYSE. Advancing volume topped declining volume by a ratio of 12.6 to 1 on the NYSE and 5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. As discussed earlier, yesterday was a bullish reversal, accumulation and confirmation day for the market. The spike in volume points directly to institutional buying. Despite all of the positive action coming out of the market, as swing traders we are still inclined to take a conservative approach to entering the market on the long side for several reasons. A quick glance at the charts of the Nasadaq and the S&P 500 shows that we are near considerable resistance on both indices. It is also important to take into consideration that there are still very few stocks exhibiting signs that they are ready to break to new highs. The price action still needs to tighten up for quality patterns to develop. In the meantime we expect to see a continuance of the whippy price action which makes trading difficult. Due to the whipsaw price action we raised the stop in EUO to just below breakeven. We now have an early short term buy signal in place but we're not that anxious to jump in full force without more quality stock setups and in particular tightening of price action. There's still a great deal of volatility in the market and price consolidation is what's needed to form the base from which to launch a sustainable rally. It is also noteworthy that AAPL had its first earnings miss in almost six years. This could have a muting affect on the Nasdaq. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 20, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks gave back most of Tuesday's gains on mixed volume yesterday. Higher beta issues took the brunt of the selling as both the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell just over 2.0%. The S&P MidCap 400 fell 1.6% while the S&P 500 shed 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed the most strength on the day as it closed lower by a modest 0.6%. Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume rose on the Nasdaq by 2.5% but fell on the NYSE by almost 12.0%. However declining volume topped advancing volume on both exchanges. On the NYSE the spread ratio ended the day at a minus 5.2 to 1 and on the Nasdaq at a minus 3.1 to 1. Because of the higher volume the Nasdaq posted both a bearish reversal and distribution day. There was clearly a divergence between the Nasdaq and the NYSE yesterday. The S&P Select Technology SPDR ETF (XLK) gapped down and formed a reversal candle yesterday on a significant spike in volume. The fact that this burst of selling came on the heels of an accumulation day in the market does not bode well for XLK. A move below the two day low of $25.27 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. Yesterday, on a big spike in volume, the ProShares UltraShort Dow Jones AIG Crude ETF (SCO) formed a reversal candle as it undercut the 200-day MA and rallied to close near session highs. A volume fueled move back above the two day high of $53.95 could provide a buy entry trigger for this inverse ETF. The market provided mixed signals yesterday as the Nasdaq diverged from the DJIA and the S&P 500. Given this divergence it is quite possible that we could see a pullback in the Nasdaq but sideways/rally action elsewhere. Caution is warranted in this choppy environment. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 21, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks rebounded sharply from early session losses to close mixed on Thursday. By the closing bell, four of the five major indices clawed their way back into positive territory with the Nasdaq being the only holdout. The S&P 500 and the S&P MidCap 400 posted gains of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 both eked out gains of 0.3% while the Nasdaq was the only loser on the day as it slid 0.2%. For a second consecutive day, market internals were mixed. Volume climbed by 3.2% on the Nasdaq and 1.2% on the Big Board. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume by a ratio of 2 to 1 on the NYSE but on the Nasdaq declining volume edged out advancing volume fractionally. Thursday's price and volume action was just another indication that institutions appear to be back in buying mode as they once again protected key support levels. Since setting a new swing high on October 4th, the ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials ETF (SMN) has pulled back and undercut support just below its 20 and 50-day moving averages. A volume fueled move back above the three day high of $23.57 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. However, due to the whipsaw action currently being exhibited in the market, we would expect any move above this key mark to be short lived. The Retail HOLDRS ETF (RTH) has shown excellent relative strength to the broad market during the recent selloff as it quickly reclaimed all of its major moving averages. RTH may provide a buying opportunity if it were to pullback and consolidate near support of its 200-day MA. This "tightening" of price action is what is often needed before a stock or ETF makes another advance. Despite the fact that the market put a buy signal in yesterday, we still believe that it may make one last quick move to the downside. There are still an ample number of quality short setups available and the market rarely takes the most obvious path. Further, new leadership stock breakouts have not yet triggered and ultimately price action is the only confirmation that matters. Patience is warranted in the current environment. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 24, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: After an opening gap up, stocks closed near session high amidst choppy intraday trade. All five major indices posted solid gains as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap Russell 2000 led the way with solid 2.3% gains. The S&P MidCap 400 rose 2.2% while the S&P 500 moved higher by 1.9%. The Nasdaq once again lagged but still managed a 1.5% gain. Market internals were mixed as volume slipped on the Nasdaq by 2.4%. However, NYSE volume climbed by an impressive 18.6%. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume on the Nasdaq and the NYSE by 4.1 to 1 and 6.3 to 1 respectively. The NYSE posted another accumulation day as evidenced by the strong volume. On October 20th, the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY) formed a reversal candle as it overcut resistance at $27.00 on a significant spike in volume. Furthermore, PCY formed another reversal candle on Friday. A move back below the four day low of $26.83 could present a short entry trigger for this ETF. The PowerShares Insured National Municipal Bond ETF (PZA) has recently undercut support of its long term trendline and key moving averages. PZA is not attempting to reclaim support of these key marks. A volume assisted move above Friday's high of $24.06 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. We will be monitoring PZA closely for a potential entrypoint. The market continues to demonstrate strength. However, we are approaching key resistance levels on all the major indices and they appear to be overextended. Consequently, we are inclined to wait for a pullback should we decide to enter any long positions. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 25, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed near session highs yesterday but on light trade. Smaller cap stocks led the move with the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 adding 3.3% and 2.9% respectively. The Nasdaq tacked on 2.4% while the S&P 500 climbed 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard on the day as it only managed to post a 0.9% gain. For a second consecutive day market internals were mixed. Volume plunged by over 20.0% on the Nasdaq but slid by a more moderate 5.3% on the NYSE. However, advancing volume topped declining volume by 6.6 to 1 on the NYSE and 9.4 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Although the market raced higher yesterday, the weak market internals suggest that institutional players were on the sidelines. A quick review of the major indices that we track clearly demonstrates that the entire market is approaching key resistance. Notice that the Nasdaq has exhibited the most relative strength during this rally as it is the only major index to have reached its 200-day MA. Also notice that both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are within striking distance of their respective 200-day moving averages. However, the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 are showing relative weakness as both are well below their 200-day moving average. Despite our shift to a moderately bullish view of the market recently, several key momentum indicators that we follow are signaling that the market is approaching an overbought state. Further, we are approaching major resistance levels on all of the major indices. Therefore, caution on the long side of the market is warranted in the short run. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 26, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks plummeted on Tuesday erasing Monday's gains. The market gapped down at the open and closed near the dead lows of the day. All five major indices ended in the red. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the retreat as it plunged 3.0%. The S&P MidCap 400 dropped 2.4% while the Nasdaq followed closely as it fell 2.3%. The S&P 500 slid 2.0% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.7%. Market internals ended mixed for a third straight day. Volume fell on the Nasdaq by 2.3% but surged on the NYSE by almost 9.0%. However, declining volume led advancing volume by a factor of 10.4 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Because of the higher volume, yesterday qualifies as a distribution day for the NYSE. Yesterday, via intraday alert, we entered a long position in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) as it rallied above resistance of its 20-day EMA on a big spike in volume. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the open positions segment of the newsletter. The iShares MSCI U.K. Index Fund (EWU) formed a reversal candle and closed near session lows on higher volume yesterday. A drop below yesterday's low of $16.48 could present a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are placing EWU on the watchlist. Trade details are posted in the watchlist section of the newsletter for our subscribers. For those who cannot enter short positions, the ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe (EPV) provides a reasonable proxy for EWU. The distribution day on the S&P 500 is concerning as it casts some doubt on the overall health of the market. As mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, we expected a pullback from the current levels, but a pullback on increasing volume is never a good sign. Still, the Nasdaq did not see a distribution day yesterday and that is positive. Because of yesterday's price and volume action on the S&P, for the moment, we're shifting our market opinion from modestly bullish to neutral. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.