The Wagner Daily - September 30, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: In another whipsaw session stocks ended the day mixed on heavier volume. Stocks gapped up sharply at the open but sold off for most of the day before staging a late session rally into the close. The divergence between the Nasdaq and the rest of the market continued on Thursday as the tech rich index closed lower by 0.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 showed the most strength on the day as it tacked on 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3% while both the S&P 500 and the S&P MidCap 400 gained 0.8%. Market internals also ended the session mixed as might be expected with the divergence in the market. Volume spiked on the Nasdaq by 18.7% but increased by a more modest 8.0% on the NYSE. The ratio of advancing to declining volume ended the day at a plus 3.0 to 1 on the NYSE and a minus 1.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Big name leadership stocks were on pressure virtually the entire day on the Nasdaq which suggests institutional distribution. The ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EUM) has shown significant relative strength as it has held its 20-day EMA on this pullback. A move back above the two day high should result in a breakout to higher ground for this ETF. An alternative entry would be a pullback-undercut of the 20-day EMA. Since its big breakout move last week, the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL) has been consolidating just above its 20-day EMA and now appears poised for another move higher. A rally above the two day high of $17.32 could provide a long entry trigger for ZSL. We are monitoring ZSL closely for a potential long entry. When leadership stocks are under pressure the health of the broad market should be questioned. Yesterday's price action among market leaders was not encouraging. Also of concern yesterday is that weak industry groups held the market up. Bottom fishing is generally not a good sign for market bulls. It is not likely for the market to recover or sustain a meaningful rally on the back of market laggards. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 3, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Friday was a bad day for Wall Street as stocks fell sharply and closed near session lows. All five major indices plummeted more than two percent with higher beta issues leading the decline. Both the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 plunged 2.8% while the Nasdaq dropped just over 2.6%. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.2%. Although Friday's price action was decidedly bearish, the session ended with market internals mixed. Volume increased on the Big Board by 5.7% while it fell on the Nasdaq by 11.4%. However declining volume overwhelmed advancing volume on the NYSE and the Nasdaq by 15.8 to 1 and 8.8 to 1 respectively. Friday's higher volume selloff on the NYSE points to institutional distribution. In Friday's newsletter we stated that, "the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL) has been consolidating just above its 20-day EMA and now appears poised for another move higher. A rally above the two day high of $17.32 could provide a long entry trigger for ZSL". ZSL acted well on Friday as it closed near session highs and is now within striking distance of $17.32. We are placing ZSL on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) gapped down and closed near session lows yesterday. A move below the two day low of $46.13 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. Our positions in XLP, SRS and EFZ all acted well on Friday and we are now well in the money on all three trades. Should the market gap down on Monday we may look to take profits on at least a portion of each trade. Now that we are back within a few points of the critical support level of 1,120 on the S&P it is likely that this mark will be tested on Monday. If we are unable to maintain support at 1,120 then we'll likely see a test of 1,100. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 4, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks were trounced on Monday as trade surged. All five major indices closed well in the red. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 led the carnage as they plummeted by 5.4% and 4.7% respectively. The Nasdaq slid 3.3% while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.9% and 2.4% respectively. The only bright note on Monday was that the selloff was not as bad as it could have been given the relentless selling. Market internals were decisively bearish across the board. Volume spiked by 25.5% on the Nasdaq and 10.8% on the NYSE. Declining volume overwhelmed advancing volume by a whopping 32.3 to 1 on the NYSE and 11.8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Selling was broad based with no sector finding refuge on the day. Monday was a clear distribution day on Wall Street. Via an intraday alert we covered our short position in XLP early in the session for a modest gain. We made a judgment call to cover the trade as XLP was showing signs of relative strength to the broad market. Later in the session we sold half of our position in EFZ for a 2.5 point gain and half our position in SRS for a 2.0 point gain (see notes section below regarding SRS). Should the market follow through with a morning gap down, we anticipate selling the remaining shares of both positions at that time. In the aftermath of yesterday's move, a review of the broad market is in order. As anticipated the S&P 500 took out support at 1,120 and is now positioned to test the next key support level at 1,100. If we lose 1,100 on the S&P then a move to 1,040 is a distinct possibility. For weeks the Nasdaq had been showing relative strength to the broad market but in just a few recent sessions the Nasdaq lost its relative strength and is now testing support at the August 9th low. If the Nasdaq fails here, the next major support level is the 200-week moving average (see weekly chart). Given the destruction in the market yesterday quality short setups are virtually nonexistent. There are plenty of ETFs that are losing support that are shortable, but none that are in line with our risk/reward parameters. This is why it's important to identify and be in quality setups before the big break. Once the break occurs it's too late. This is where novice traders begin chasing the market lower only to get demolished when the market reverses higher. The late afternoon bounce was likely the result of short covering by professionals into the close. That suggests that retail traders were responsible for the decline in the last 20 minutes of the day. As the professionals were getting out, the amateurs were getting in. Rest assured bear market reversals are viscous and it's best to be out of the market well ahead of the turn. We never attempt to squeeze every last dime out of a trade. We most likely caught the majority of this decline and it is now time to exit our positions into weakness and wait for the next round of opportunities to present themselves. Time is now best spent managing open positions and patiently waiting for the next market bounce to begin identifying the next group of quality short candidates. The current market environment is now likely best suited for momentum day trading. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 5, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks reversed dramatically on Tuesday and turned early losses into significant gains. All five major indices roared higher on brisk trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 mounted an impressive rally as it tacked on a whopping 6.4%. The S&P MidCap 400 gained 3.5% while the Nasdaq forged ahead 3.0%. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted increases of 2.3% and 1.4% respectively. Market internals ended the session on a bullish note. Volume surged on the NYSE by 25.0% and on the Nasdaq by 19.1%. Advancing volume overwhelmed declining volume by 5.8 to 1 on the NYSE and 8.1 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Based on the abrupt and convincing nature of the rally, it is likely safe to say that institutions stepped back into the market with authority yesterday. A move that powerful was fueled by much more than just short covering. We sold the remaining shares of EFZ yesterday morning into the gap up. We are now up almost 1.5% for the month and will now wait for new setups to reveal themselves. The volatility of yesterday's reversal provides a clear warning that we should step back from the market for at least a few days. We're glad to be in cash. Sometimes a picture speaks a thousand words. Yesterday, amidst apparent carnage, the market staged a dramatic reversal and now appears to have established a bottom. If yesterday's low holds over the next three to five sessions we anticipate a four to six week rally in the S&P 500 with the possibility of a move back to the 200-day moving average. In yesterday's newsletter we discussed market timing and stated, "This is why it's important to identify and be in quality setups before the big break. Once the break occurs it's too late. This is where novice traders begin chasing the market lower only to get demolished when the market reverses higher. The late afternoon bounce (Monday) was likely the result of short covering by professionals into the close. That suggests that retail traders were responsible for the decline in the last 20 minutes of the day. As the professionals were getting out, the amateurs were getting in". These words proved to be prophetic as the market smashed any late to the party bears yesterday. Market timing and trade management are critical to successful stock trading and these skills are at a particular premium in a bear market. As we said yesterday," bear market reversals are viscous and it's best to be out of the market well ahead of the turn. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 6, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks posted solid gains for a second straight day but trade was light. The Nasdaq led the advance as it posted a 2.3% gain. The S&P 500 gained 1.8% while the S&P MidCap 400 improved by 1.6%. In a follow up to Tuesday's impressive six percent advance, the small-cap Russell 2000 added another 1.4% yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the day's laggard as it added just over 1.2%. Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume plummeted across the board. On the Nasdaq trade dropped by over 18.0% while on the NYSE it fell nearly 28.0%. However advancing volume topped declining volume by a factor of 5.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 7.7 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Yesterday's rally was subdued by the absence of volume. The lack of volume suggests institutions were not committed to yesterday's price action. The Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX) has shown relative weakness to the broad market over the past several weeks. On Tuesday when the market reversed dramatically on massive volume, IDX reversed on relatively light volume. Further, yesterday's move higher occurred on very light volume. A move back into resistance near declining 20-day EMA ($27.00) could provide a short entry trigger for this ETF. We are monitoring IDX closely for a potential short entry. Over the past six weeks the SPDR Series KBW Bank ETF (KBE) has been met with resistance every time it has attempted to reclaim its 20-day EMA. During this time KBE has been setting a sequence of lower highs each time it probes above this key mark. Further, the banking sector has been one of the weakest sectors in the market during the most recent two month selloff. An overcut of the 20-day EMA could provide a shorting opportunity in KBE. Although we are wary to get aggressive on the short side of the market, the abrupt nature of the current two day rally could provide a quick shorting opportunity as many ETFs have found their way back near resistance. If we do decide to enter any short positions we will likely take smaller position size and look to cut losses and/or take profits quickly. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 7, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks rallied for a third straight day but for the second session in a row the move came on dwindling trade. Higher beta issues led the advance as the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 both posted solid gains of 2.4%. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.9%, 1.8% and 1.7% respectively. For the second time in as many days the session ended with mixed market internals. Turnover slipped by 9.3% on the Nasdaq and 7.8% on the Big Board. Advancing volume topped declining volume across the board. By the closing bell the spread ratio was at 13.5 to 1 on the NYSE and 7.4 to 1 on the Nasdaq. For a second consecutive day positive price action was muted by a lack of volume. For two days now institutions have not participated in the advance. Since setting its third "higher-high" in just over two months, the ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEV) has once again pulled back into support of the 20-day EMA. The formation of a reversal candle would provide an ideal setup for a possible long entry in this inverse ETF. We like the price action in EEV and are monitoring it closely as a potential long candidate. Since breaking out of its long term downtrend in early August, the ProShares Short MSCI EAFE ETF (EFZ) has been one of the strongest inverse ETFs in the market. Yesterday EFZ pulled back into support of its uptrend line and 20-day EMA. An undercut of the trend-line could provide a buying opportunity in EFZ. The market rallied on poor volume again yesterday. This suggests that a turn may be close at hand. However, given Tuesday's massive reversal day we are inclined to take profits quickly should we decide to enter any short positions. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2011 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 10, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks ended Friday's whipsaw session lower on mixed trade. In a reversal of Thursday's action, high beta stocks led the market lower as the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 shed 1.6% and 2.6.% respectively. The tech rich Nasdaq fell 1.1% while the S&P 500 slid 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed relative strength on the day as it only fell 0.2%. Market internals were mixed for a third consecutive day. Volume slid on the Nasdaq by 6.9% but climbed on the NYSE by 3.3%. However, declining volume topped advancing volume by 4.0 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Friday's middling internals point to a lack of institutional participation on the session. Still, the NYSE did close near session lows on higher volume suggesting that bears are still in control of the Big Board. Via an intraday alert we entered a long position in the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF (SRS) after it undercut and reclaimed support of its 20-day EMA. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the open position segment of the newsletter. In Friday's newsletter we discussed the ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEV) and stated, "The formation of a reversal candle would provide an ideal setup for a possible long entry in this inverse ETF". On Friday EEV formed a reversal candle as it gapped down, undercut its 20-day EMA and reversed on a spike in volume to close near session highs. We are placing EEV on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribing members in the watchlist section of the newsletter. Despite our bearish leanings, last Tuesday's market reversal has us on guard for a potential bullish follow through day in the market. We are prepared to take profits quickly in any short positions should the market put in an accumulation day anytime this week. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. Charts created by TradeStation (tradestation.com). © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 11, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks staged impressive gains and closed near session highs on Monday as trade fizzled. All five major indices posted gains of three percent or more with small-cap stocks leading the charge. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed up a whopping 4.4%. The tech rich Nasdaq added 3.5% while the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 both improved by 3.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 3.0%. Market internals were mixed for the fourth consecutive day and must be strongly considered when interpreting the day's positive price action. Volume plummeted on both exchanges by a massive 24.0% but advancing volume overwhelmed declining volume by 16.7 to 1 on the NYSE and 7.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The anemic volume speaks clearly to the absence of institutional participation in Monday's rally. Since the reversal day last Tuesday the market has still not posted a follow through accumulation day. For the moment it appears as if the current rally may be nothing more than a house of cards. Over the past two weeks the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX.X) has shown relative strength to the broad market but is now approaching major resistance at its 200-day MA. An overcut of and reversal back below this key mark could provide an early signal that the current rally is reaching exhaustion. We will be monitoring the Nasdaq 100 closely for signs of a reversal. Over the past five sessions the ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 25 ETF (FXP) has been selling off and has now pulled back into support near its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. We are now awaiting the formation of a reversal candle to provide a possible long entry signal for this ETF. Five days of rallying on light volume is far from what the market needs to reverse the current bear market trend. Without institutional participation it's unlikely that this advance can hold up much longer. Light volume rallies are indicative of bear market bounces. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. Charts created by TradeStation (tradestation.com). © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
MTG logo The Wagner Daily - October 12, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday in modestly higher trade. Large cap issues underperformed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.2% while both the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The Nasdaq added 0.7% and the small-cap Russell 2000 eked out a 0.6% gain. Market internals were positive but far from impressive. Volume rose by 5.3% on the Nasdaq and 3.0% on the NYSE. Advancing volume edged out declining volume by a factor of 1.4 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. We once again failed to post a follow through day in the market and market internals were not strong enough to suggest that institutions were actively accumulating shares. Yesterday we entered a long position in PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETF (DTO) but in the afternoon session our stop was hit and we exited the trade. Subsequent to our exit, DTO reversed and rallied strongly to close near session highs. It is apparent from our quick exit that we set the stop a bit too tight in this trade. When a trade is not successful you must always be willing to re-enter the position in the event that a new setup presents itself. Remember, each trade stands of its own merits. We liked the late session price action in DTO and are therefore adding it to the watchlist. A move back above yesterday's high of $63.63 should present a buying opportunity in this inverse ETF. The ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF (SRS) is once again in play as a potential long candidate. A volume fueled moved above yesterday's high of $16.79 may provide a quality long entry trigger for this ETF. The current rally appears to be reaching a point of exhaustion but there are still only a few sectors that have begun to form reversal candles. If the last five days are all the market has to offer in terms of bullishness, it seems likely that market bears will soon gain control of the price action. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
The Wagner Daily - October 13, 2011 Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs Commentary: Stocks closed higher but well off session highs as the market reversed late in the session on strong trade. All five major indices closed in the green with small-cap issues showing the most strength on Wednesday. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000 tacked on 1.7%. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq improved by 1.0%, 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. The S&P MidCap 400 gained 0.6%. For the second day in a row market internals and price action were positive but strangely enough, not bullish. Volume spiked by 18.5% on both exchanges but picked up significantly during the late day sell off and cast a bearish tone over the market. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume by 5.0 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Despite the positive price action we would not classify Wednesday as an accumulation day as institutions appeared to be aggressively selling into the close. The ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF (SRS) formed a massive reversal candle yesterday on an uptick in volume. A move back above yesterday's high of $16.64 could provide a long entry trigger for this ETF. We are placing SRS on the watchlist. Trade details are provided for our clients in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Yesterday, the iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH) formed a reversal candle as it found resistance at its downtrend line and 20-day EMA. A moved back below yesterday's low of $15.82 could present a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We will be monitoring EWH carefully for a possible short entry. Yesterday's late session reversal was quite bearish and will likely result in further selling pressure for the next few days. However, now that the major indices have rallied through important resistance levels, we are more inclined to take profits/cut losses on the short side a bit more quickly. The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit morpheustrading.com. Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com. DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The Wagner Daily (hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have positions in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results. © 2002-2010 Morpheus Trading, LLC Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.