Well here's a more general question: How does one assess the state of the real estate market? If I want to see how the stock market is doing, I pull up a chart of the Dow, Nas, etc. If I feel like a fundamentalist, I'll look at average P/E ratios, earnings surprises, etc. How does one do this in real estate?
its much harder for real estate... i guess it depends, the methods differ if you're looking to invest in a principal residence or a rental. i guess for principal residence you'd be looking for stuff like average sales prices of specific regions and looking for a longer term horizon. for a rental i guess you'd look at the trend of vacancy rates, average rents, population breakdown (eg students, single ppl)
its very freaking simple. you guys are overcomplicating it. if you are interested in where the market prices of real estate will go then do this. just chart the average market price in preppytown area along with volume (transactions #). then do your ta, go nuts, do the gann and the fibs and whatever else u feel like. or you could play the builder, REITS or mortgage stocks.
I do TA on the price of bananas at my supermarket. I caught them 20c cheaper as they held support last week! (I'm also looking at ways to arb the price dif between one supermarket and another, but the profits don't beat the high costs of entry into the marketplace.)
TA on real estate is called appraising. It can be far more sophisticated than doing a comp on three similar properties. This is particularly true for commercial appraisals where future value is a key element in whether a bank will provide a loan to the buyer for purchase or development purposes. There's quite a bit of information, indicators, etc at professional appraisal associations, one of which is http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/. A simple search might yield others. regards, amg