I read the "Black Swan." Neither his assertion nor your rebuttal make any sense. Capital markets moves do not correlate tightly with politics, markets respond to a MUCH larger set of forces. However, for the sake of anecdotal "evidence" (worthless historically but important to the average voter with a short attention span) Markets did very well under Clinton Markets had a horrific performance under Bush 43 So just stop yapping about the GOP being better for the markets...they aren't.
Yes, Bill was too busy with Monica to notice the Tech Bubble get out of control, which practically derailed our economy as soon as he left office. Not to mention AlQaeda, same thing, same "shove it under the rug and let someone else deal with it" mentality. That's the Dem legacy
One you're missing the point. Taleb speaks about "causation" fallacy. 2. Clinton markets and GWB markets are the same shit. Boom bust. If you think the market was healthy in 2000 then you weren't trading. The break in tech was 100x more brutal than this market. There wasn't a nickels worth of difference between Prezez 41,42,43....... 3. I CLEARLY agree with you that politics are down the list as arbiter of valuations.
Well yes, we Agree. I didn't say the DEMs were any better for the market just as irrelevant. The Tech bust was just that a tech bust. This bust is systemic. I couldn't have articulated that better than your post this morning. This one is Big and far from over. The Tech market was 100 % "market made." This one find (some) political roots in the "ownership society" crap. You're a smart guy. you don't have to be a political hack
Systemic sounds good but think it through. The root cause of most every market problem today is asset depreciation. Real estate investment has been treated as a sacred cow by global policy makers. The diff: Tech stocks 50% margin, homes 0-10% "margin". If JNPR was bought in 3/2000 with "nothing down" and the LEH's of the world were "loaning" you the purchase money then it would be the exact same problem. I haven't read Soros in a decade or more but I think it was him who spoke about the illusion of liquidity. The assumption that all participants can pass off the hot potato at once -at advantageous prices to boot- is flawed. Being the smartest guy in the room is of little solace if you're the only person in the room.....
Soros penned just that one book and If I remember well it was the most painful book of Finance I ever read. Brilliant speculator, lousy writer. Yup, I remember well the raging debate btw Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis. Soros was the first to enunciate that hype is also a "fundamental" variable. Changed my market scanners forever.
IMAO: Biden's brain scans found "The Democrat vice presidential candidate, Sen. Joe Biden, finally released his medical records. But something was missing. The brain scans. In case you forgot ⦠or never knew ⦠Biden twice underwent surgery in 1988 (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?re60) to repair damage from aneurysms. But the medical records, released recently, didnât include any brain scans (http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/lifestyle/health/chi-biden-health-21-oct21,0,3034472.story): But the 49 pages of records the campaign released gave no indication that Bidenâs doctors sought follow-up tests after the serious aneurysms he suffered in 1988. Medical experts are divided over the need for such precautionary brain scans, but many feel it is the only way to be sure a patient is out of danger. âIf this was my patient, I would re-image every three to five years to make sure no new aneurysm had cropped up,â said Dr. Mark Alberts, a professor of neurology at Northwestern Universityâs Feinberg School of Medicine. Not to worry. Our crack team of investigators has uncovered the missing brain scans⦠That explains everything!"