Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by sputdr, Sep 15, 2005.
You must be heavily short the DAX to have such an opinion....
I've never heard of any trader being a socialist......
I'm not a socialist at all.
It's purely for selfish reasons. Since Schroeder crept back into the race there has been some good volatility.
SChroeder wins, and it's a disaster for the GErman economy and the dax falls like a meteor. They might as well merge with France.
Everybody knows Merkel is the best choice.
I agree with you but you're drawing an incomplete picture...the volatility did come back since end of April when the anticipated elections were called. Ever since, the DAX has been on a tear because it anticipated a CDU victory....the last few months have been the most volatile in the DAX for quite some time. It's just since the beginning of this week that the SchrÃ¶der factor has been depressing the index....
If the SPD wins, the DAX will indeed fall quite heavily, but if the CDU wins a clear majority, it will continue to rise. Historically the DAX is still pretty cheap on a P/E basis.
It's a win win really.
Merkel wins and we get a more friendly pro business governement and friendly to the US which is good and if schroeder wins the mkt probably throws the towel in on Germany and gives up and the mkt takes a nosedive and some good trading volatiltiy kicks in for a while.
These days where the indexes go up 25 pts and don't move for the rest of the day kill me.
It also seems like the fatherland has gotten itself in a very bad positon with regards to Turkey.
Schroeder wins, he lets Turkey in and every Turk packs their bags to reap the beneftis of the welfare state and if Merkel wins and denies Turkey EU membership, they risk being attacked by terrorists, which they said they would do if denied.
Will be very interesting times.
1 1/2% before the election.
Wonder if it's short covering.
"...Es git es keine Zeit ,in welche Menshen lÃ¼gen so viel,
als nach dem Jagd,bei der Krieg und vor der Wahl"
Author susepct ,that SchrÃ¶der & would use all means ,to be by power .
Question for speculator ,as associal element of each society ,
is how use this event by each result.
Schroeder should set fire to the Reichstag and blame merkel and get the brownshirts out.
Election is a disaster for Germany.
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