"Dropping volume in to excel and sorting by 5 min charts would be a really good idea ! (thanks for the idea if it is what you suggested or not) I trust you understand why I cant yet commit to your thread(s) right now. Can't we say that you look at price action or candles/vol and based on current candle formation and current price, or both combined, you have a system that decides how good each additional bar/volume/speed is and are only willing to stay in the market if the trend presented is one that is proven profitable? From there we have a system. Complicated but still a system that has good back testing and is based on stats." Yes. A system emerges where volume gives signals to trade price and price says to volume if it is possible to take a measure on volume. Two variables each having different exclusive roles in a system. From this conclusion it is possible to understand the role of trading is to make money and the time is when money can be made. Entry/exit type trading does not met this logical requuirement. So entry/exit cannot be used for effectivenss and efficiency. Hold/Reversal becomes the modus of taking the fulkl offer of the markets. Also you can notice that the two forms of information flow do eliminate the need for stats. Stats are not used. Stats are often arrows in a learning traders quiver. The quiver first appeared as a tool holder. But the quiver owner just did things he was not allowed to do. What he put in the quiver does not work with a bow. These arrows do not fit with a bow. If you use the wrong arrows all they do is miss targets. Missing targets leads to hunger and no furs or feathers for LL Bean down or fleese jackets. Or putting fleese in a sluce for traping gold bearing sand flowing through the sluce. The only arrows, so far, that can be put in the quiver are the minority detector arrow and the majority detector arrow and the Sentiment detector arrow which has two tips, long and short you screw on the appropriate tip. Throw out the stats and the MA's; they can't hit anything since you shoot too late with each.
"Maybe a MA with a fork and some Bollinger will also have good back testing ? Further, I can't back test your system to see how it preforms in different markets. (I assume you use stats and back testing) If not, you may have spark an interest !!" So we already chucked the MA, Chuck the fork too. John is a special guy; he gets his info from Greg Larson and company. Greg gives him more frequent slugs than anyone else who subscribes (except for one other crew). So you can put Bollinger in your quiver and then you can add backtesting. But you can only test Bolinger against one of the other arrows in your quiver. Bollinger "invented an envelope of price and price does not lead price except for "projected" boundaries. You can only check the boundary in the present. So you go pick up all the elments in John's libraries and start you optimizing of all his arrows in the Bollimger quiver. This is a big advance cfor you because you "quessed" a tool you can learn about and use. Geg's phone number is !-800-808-3282. If Eric or Judy answers just say my name and asked to get the bollinger libraries. Also grab Pete Kilman's short shadows for type bars people use with Bollinger bands. You are now networking with an introduction.
"I really like your guidance and skim through alot of your stuff. Please don't take this as an insult. It takes time and that is where my day went. I am not looking for a short cut to make money. In the end what needs to me learnt will need to be learnt. I am looking for an approach that gives smaller rewards but more often. (like trying to reduce daily losses) So there is feedback. That I can chart and understand why things slowed down. Nothing wrong with plateaus or small dips based on learning experience. (just a fear of not having decided my thoughts on back testing vs actually trading) Do you see this alternet approach as something that will slow me down more then being behind by 1 step.. (step one being break even, and step 2 being profitable)." As a potential trader approaches trading, there ae four things he has to grasp: the very beginning; figuring out how to make money in trading; how money works, and leraning to learn. So I have explained the feedback system of market operation to you.(price, volume loops) And I have given you an application of a feed back system (Bollinger/Kilman) (See pages 73 through 75 of M3 Summit handbook.) You mention obtusely, the four topics you need to grasp as you begin. The very beginning is to get a systems orientation. It has a foundation and you place building blocks on that. (the two quivers you now carry with you. You cannot add any arrows that are not deduced. you make money in trading by price change. I told you how the minority causes price cchaange and how that gives you the sentiment before you se anything on the price/volume information flow. Your life style is how money works. Ramon and Chris reminded me of this. Their truck droppd off a table and chairs (See FranK Loyd Wright style) and they noticed my V-12 BMW (it burns rubber when accelerating above 11MPH, (the injectors are matched)). I explained getting the money to buy the table took an hour and fifteen minutes on Thursday last. Trading gives you an endless supply of extracted money. You spend it and give it away. Lrning to learn is your current problem. This is true for 99% of potential traders. You have to understand what is going on. You see and hear about "pieces" or elements of trading. They lay a foundation and then building blocks come along. What if? What if the pieces do not fit together? In CW thinking they DO NOT fit togther. Myths abound as well. These are inventions to add plastic wood in holes of groups of pieces. Read Derman and Bass, two book writers who write about nothing working. Read Covell to see why he blew it. Trend monitoring and analysis works but trend following DOES NOT WORK. I am saying to you that you deduce the arrows to put in your quiver. No arrows get put in from reading myths and stuff. You have to build in your mind a spectrum of facts in long term memory. The spectrum is a lot od elements that are deduced and proven to be part of the spectrum. Read nodoji. Donna explains what bar-by-bar came to mean to her for trading segments where bar after bar fits together. Farley tells you too. How it all finally turns out is the interaction of two variables, ech of which has a defined job. (See prior post and highlite this sentence). And all of this can be anticipted by using the data stream of the near future planned trading. Boiling it down, trends have volume elements (11) and price elements (10). Ends of trends have 35 elements. The total is 56. Each have unique defined characteristics in the mathematics of the market. A system results. It is composed of criteria, filters, formulae, rules, baskets, strategies, and they fit in libraries for each type of instrument traded in those particular markets. there are many other approaches. They have a common characteristic: hey are incomplete and they have myhical band aids. A superficial check on them is how much time of RTH is available for their successful application. Where they cannot be used is where their incompleteness lies. If you talk about a system to someone also ask where they do not use it and why. Then ask what they use in that space. They will say another system. Then you ask how they can put both systems to gether. Often you will hear, when one stops I use the other. THey are finding out the stopping points by a simple test: they just lost some moneyby getting stopped out. When the word stop is used, you know they have a given lifestye limit. Ask how long their driveway is. Four cicty blocks is a good answer; less is an indicator of an incomplete system.
"That is a delay I can afford. If you understand , thank you for your understanding. But either way thank you for your time!" A lot of skilled and well known traders started with little. Their open minds allows them to learn and build their minds with complete specrum that were fully differentiated. There is a way to detect the stages of this. Read WilliamJ O'Neill's autobiographical sketch. Also read Darvas. My fisrt goal was to trade round lots of stocks. It just took weeks starting with 300 dollars. In two and 1/2 years my commissions exceeded my salary. O'Neil quit his solo effort in 27 months. Darvas kept trading days and danced at night. Markets operate bar-by-bar. It is a finite mathematical perfomance. Every bar forms and has a purpose. Volume leads price and you trade price from volume indicators. This is counterintuitive for people with CW minds. I keep this a secret by saying it to people who cannot believe me because of the long term memory in thier minds all of which is NOT differentiable. (See marketsurfer's explanations of his mind's ststus. His mind is irreversably damaged as a consequence of his mistaken choices. Be careful out there.
Hey, Jack Thanks for the reply's ! Takes me while to absorb your posts so ill hold back for now as I am out the door to see the doc. You are pulling me back to the exploration phase, or what I call my home. I love it too much lol.
I wonder what would happen to the mating habits of a town full of gay men, if suddenly all the women became feminists :eek: Or is the ability to limit supply (and drive price) dependent on ambient demand? The minority has the power to end the game, the majority is the game. It is the cravings of the unsophisticated that keeps the playerz employed. Or, as MrCharts once said: "Most of what is thrown to the monkeys is done so for a reason and that is to keep them in the cage. To think that the markets are random is to think like a monkey. However, this does not mean that there is not randomness in the markets, as when monkeys are let loose trading anything can indeed happen." :eek:
Here we have my recent trades. There were some bad ones but they occurred when i had a tight stop loss (or should of) slippage and order entry and focus were off. This is just a game at this point. They were real orders though with low volume. 1. You can see my fork in there that was clearly drawn after words. it is giving a signal right now to keep in eye on volume and bollinger bands and range. 2. volume is being learnt. it is also a bit tricky as it is looked for in the smallest of time frames and some times I may have to back 37 days and look in to the min chart to see if its big volume to compare to new reversal volume. 3. also there are the Bollinger bands. a bit tricky as I am looking at them in the 1 min chart hence the quick exits. That will have to be thought out. maybe they should be used as entrys only. price hitting a fork with the right bolling band form is really golden usually this happens as volume is about to kick in and push us out of a channel Volume on previous hits of a fork compared to volume on current hits is also a good reason enter. By volume i usually mean a high range bar that occured with high volume. mistakes are 1. being all over with time frame, 2. changing the main reason to eneter (volume bars and forks) 3. wanting to catch a trend that is a few days long but seeing failure in a one min chart and leaving. see 1 4. Using meta trader and TOS to gether. lines everywhere!!!! all good entry and targets though ! how can i get rid of them !
This above was ideas from different time frame windows plotted together. I just put my trades in and slapped on pictures after. They are all invalid as presented here. The ingredients is what has to be looked at. Bollinger bands. fork volume. Instead of looking at specific bar formations and having +/-50 or so formations, I use bollinger bands. I understand how different they are. But maybe 10 of your formations that say hold are similar to my widening of bands while hugging an upper band. Like wise maybe 10 that say exit, are similar to dojis I see without upward momentum. Maybe they are not same at all. but they are some thing that looks at bar formation and sums things up to something I can process. As for the forks. in the end they are channels with tails. (I actually wish I could have a channel to fork face off one day. They differ in only one way and that a fork (i feel) can be drawn out before a channel. Volume. Dont have "quantum quotes" in level 2 but a signal based on level 2 would be good (signal saying speed has gone up or order have increased on one side of the other ) Maybe I am working on a dumbed down version of your system that I can handle. I fully expect that rounding off the corners on each step will mean less $ But its a start. and I can possibly take it out of discovery and try to work on testing it. (which i kinda am) I have contacted local tutors that have experience in excel and probability. some even Metlab knock off programming. I need to act at my planned pace while I go back to discovery. Do you see any hope if fine tuned ?
Its a Tuff question for me really, even red an green candles don't make sense. (add in shorting and well.. Ill have to think about it a bit too much) If the market is booming, prices are going up, sellers want more for their houses. Buyers are obviously paying the price because qutoes are being printed. Whos in charge? Two actions can be taken by each party, change price, or not to transact. If seller stop transacting prices go really high. Buyers loose, sellers win (except for the sellers that stopped transacting) So the group of sellers that acted gained nothing meaning it is not a good idea not to sell as you will create demand and not be part of it. re entering will create supply and prices will come down. (Maybe a few houses get sold high anyways.. but they had to pay the cost of time and risk.) If a seller higher's his price. Volume will slows down as buyers loose interest and become picky (a win for some, but for the people that highered their price visits drop as you are out of search parameters) If we have a big buyer that has a lot of volume.. If he stops buying, prices fall for other buyers. But not for him*. If he re enters the market he creates demand and price quickly* goes up for him. *(Even if he sells a few houses before people realize that prices have reversed he had to pay the price of time (mortgage) on all his property and risk not being filled.) If a buyer lowers price, people with higher prices get filled and the guy who lowered his price waits for price to fall and may not get filled. (pays price of time and risk no fill) Who's in charge ? In terms of in charge of what prints on the ticker the real estate broker is in charge. He can convince people markets are moving and create panic which is like the news. Price is where it is cause that is where both parties feel they are getting a bad price but it is worth the cost of time and the risk of no being filled. A green candle is not bullish by nature, it simply means the last transaction was higher then the first./// If you believe in noise, then what is in a candle, or its colour, is noise of noise. The only reason green means up is cause day traders deemed it so. the volume player on daily chart cares not about the colour of your 5 min chart. the only guy that cares is the guy sitting next to you on the floor that you told to care.