Resting orders have been blown to pieces recently, like the day bund went up 230 ticks so inevitably order size will decrease and volume drop to account for risk. Same crap as 2008 when bund thinned down to 30 lots bid/ask from it's previous peak of 3000-4000 bid/ask and most bund traders legged it over to stoxx for a while. I just hope it doesn't get quite that bad - I hate stoxx!! I heard a lot of the big clip spread traders in the fly and such have also been torn new assholes so that size has been cut accordingly too. You just need to trade less size and run it further in these big ranges and keep it tight, can still make kind of similar money, just less pleasant conditions with all this blippage toss. The luck:skill ratio has moved, lets hope the vol returns.
Thank you for explaining. When you say "the real yield on German 10´s being negative" what do you mean by that? Can you recommend a page where I can find info on yield, because there is a lot of poor information when yopu search on google. Thanks, Billy
German inflation is 2.4%, bund yield is 2.397 currently, so you're not even maintaining current buying power of your money with a bund "investment" http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/us-markets-investors-crises-idUSTRE77229I20110803 read the "Losing with Bonds" bit
I have to admit tthat i'm seriously looking at trading the stoxx. Not getting filled on winners but being ironed out in seconds on losers is getting very boring. Being late by 1 second on paying up and then the market moving 10-15 ticks is also happening too frequently. I may have to take the ultimate gamble and switch to the US TY.
IMO - the reason for the large moves up and down quickly and vicously is down to the 'cascade effect'. everyone including algos are all sellers or are all buyers. there is very little 2 way business. as soon as an order in the book is spotted it is exploited immediately. you can make money out of this but it is bery difficult. the 'cascade effect' is a mini flash crash within a few minutes. according to my sources at the exchanges they are very concerned about this but there is very little they can do. eurex has the 30 tick rule in place on the bund and bobl but thats about as good as they can do at the moment.
Thank you for your reply and the article. That was the answer I was looking for, the underlying part of the move. Regards, BIlly
Yes, it seems like the moves are somewhat drastic either up or down when those algos are spinning. Just have to see were this will go.. Billy
ECB playing a game of spoof with the market and loosing in a big way. Its like Black Wednesday all over again. Unless by bond buying Trichet was referring to Bunds.
Another ming day for volume. bunds 180 tick range on 750k bobl 112 on 440k the volume should at least 3 times this If it were traded primarily by people then it would be,no doubt about it.