Discussion in 'Trading' started by sirgiyan, Dec 6, 2008.

  1. Dear all!

    I'm new to this forum so I'm desperate to share my opinion so you can piss all over it. In this thread
    I plan to post my understanding of the volume as an indicator of smart money activity

    in the last hour this friday I have noticed a huge volume up bars near the close, but those were a very narrow spread bars (I refer mostly to financials like C, BAC and XLF as a proxy)
    This tells me that there was a big supply in there and therefore I expect markets to be down on monday. In fact I expect this weakness to continue through the week with potential testing of the recent lows but this remain to be seen in the further volume developments
  2. richrf


    I think that this could be one interpretation. However, the way I read it is that the day and swing traders were basically clearing out their accounts for the weekend.

    The averages barely budged this week, though it seems that there is some gradual accumlation going on since October. But for the most part, traders are just playing "last one out is a rotten egg" among themselves, so the averages just keep bouncing up and down in a range. As the averages nears their resistance lows, the elephants come in, the shorts cover, and the market zooms up.

    My hypothesis is that we are forming a bottom, the elephants are coming in near the lows (each low being slightly higher than the last), as accumulation sets the stage for the next big cyclical up move (accumulation can take many months). In the meantime, you may be right, the shorts may test the lows again, to see what lurks. Who knows what lurks in the hearts of men?
  3. Blood!

    Knives get it out.

    PS: good analysis. Stratify more, and you shall see more. But there is a king higher than all buyers and sellers taken separately. He is Holly. Follow it. I do.
  4. richrf


    Clues to what lurks in the hearts of men?
  5. You are intelligent, and on the right side overall. However, you should be preparately in case they stretch your wallet and open it. If you are prepared, you should not care, and may put more of them inside to suffocate and eat later.

    In any case if I were you, I would use their money to build a hedge a bit in the north, so that if they decide to go visit the king in the south, you should pay for the north hedge with zero money of yours, and all the money of theirs.

    But if they go higher ahead of the king, you paid them from you have already gotten from them, although you will make less.

    Overall, there should be no blood leaving your heart, but theirs should be a gold of yours.

    He who has the gold makes the rules.

    Holy kings like a richly prince
  6. richrf


    Kewl. Thanks.