Just wondering what you guys think of volume in an uptrend and what are the implications? For example I am thinking on buying AMZA based on a daily chart with a 100 day moving average on volume. Looking at the volume it just keeps going up. I suspect that would propel the price of the issue. Any feedback would be appreciated.
In order to more fully understand this, it's necessary to go back a while. This issue has been in decline for quite some time. Without novelizing this, note the volume at "1" which indicates substantial buying interest (you know it's buying interest because the decline comes to a temporary halt). Then note the volume at "2". Even though price is lower, so is the level of activity, the "volume". Sellers are backing off and buyers are able not only to halt the decline but reverse it. At "3", sellers re-enter the market, which results in a higher level of activity. Buyers, however, have the upper hand which is illustrated by the rise in price. Finally price breaks its downtrendline on decent volume/activity and has now come back a bit to test it. Stay tuned. So that's where you are with regard to buyers and sellers. Whether or not you enter here is up to you, but at least you should have a better idea of what to look for, where to buy, where to put your stop. (If you don't, do a search using my name and "volume".)
In the larger scheme of things bear channels such as this one should be considered to be bull flags with a probable BO north for the larger move. BUT since 80% of BO's FAIL you gotta count the attempts to BO. There were at least 7 attempts at a BO north. The last one (the 7th ) shows signs of failure. Gap down..etc ... But need another bar or two to tell. If it fails and trades back into the channel with bear bars then the more probable move is to the south towards the bottom of the channel. But if it bounces off the top of the channel and reverses up I would be long. As the odds would then favor a successful bull BO of a large bull flag. As far as volume. We have probally got exhaustive vol in the latter part of the channel. But that also can't be known until we see a couple of more bars. Oh the uncertainty of trading. We live in a grey fog....but soon we will be singing.."I can see clearly now, the rain is gone, I can see all obstacles in my way, Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind, It's gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright) Sun-Shiny day...."
%% I agree; I bought a Stock Traders Almanac thru AMZN, good buy lately. Im not worried about 312 PE. most of the good trenders have hi PE. I dont like retail stocks like JCP, TGT....[ turkeys+ trash flies up LOL] But since the earnings gap held+ up, i prefer it thru something like QQQ, less downside; but since IBD has it still rated a buy /base, OK. And while i dont have a problem with most putting it in ''retail''sector i consider it tek/internet. I see they sold it last SEPT, which is normal sell vol
Tomorton= %% LOL; i agree with about 805, i mean 80% of that.I so seldom pay attention to volume, except before i get in, or friday close.....[Post #8]
Volume analysis is "too much information" and is to be discarded. It's just another variable that gives you the opportunity to read incorrectly. ---Limit the variables and you'll limit the mistakes.---
THats why I use my trusty Silver dollar. Heads/ Tails. no confusion , though I sometimes flip more than once till I get the result I need.