Volume analysis is to be discarded as it is "too much information"

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Buy1Sell2, Jul 6, 2009.

Volume analysis of any use?

  1. I believe in using volume analysis

    162 vote(s)
    58.5%
  2. I discard volume analysis in my trading

    71 vote(s)
    25.6%
  3. I really don't know

    43 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. Interesting. Based on the criteria you noted earlier, the very chart you posted shows a false positive volume reading at 9:09 AM and a false negative at 9:34 AM.

    From where I'm sitting, YOU are the one who's writing about how much you know.

    As an aside, one of my index trades earlier this morning (different time frame) quite coincidentally had a similar volume reading to the one you supposedly subscribe to. Fortunately, I was able to scratch the trade. This in addition to a few other observed false readings thus far based on your critieria.

    No doubt, with your years of experience you'd be able to tell me after the fact which setups worked out. If you keep up with your penchant for cherry picking, you'll soon have enough to half-bake a cherry pie chart.
     
    #441     Aug 3, 2009
  2. Demonstrating what you have to offer or questioning a trade I did is constructive. Verbal pissing in the wind isn't.

    I think I posted 4 examples now and I can't find those times. If you can show them to me I'll be happy to comment on them.

    You might have a point as not all signals work. Let's see if you are reading it correctly.
     
    #442     Aug 3, 2009
  3. Thanks T'dog. Check I have the right chart.

    09.08/09am is one of the Wyckoff key reversal volume trades. That was a sell that worked. Candles almost the same size and volume almost equal is Changing Hands.

    9.34 is a test of a prior level. Last time selling faded into this level. The 2nd attempt selling was fading again. If volume was greater that last time at this level the odds favor a break down.

    Lower selling volume than last time, also fading volume within each move down and buying on the increase all hint that the bulls can take control here.

    Both these signals worked. You can't use your present level of knowledge to pass judgment and please don't try to trade with this.

    My objective was to show some traders that volume has a place but requires study. I never intended to say here do this and you'll make $$$$.
     
    #444     Aug 3, 2009
  4. I think you're finessing it after the fact. The 9:09 AM down bar shows volume exceeding the volume for the down bar 3 bars earlier. Based on your criteria, this would be a short signal. It didn't really work out that way. The 9:34 AM up bar's volume did not have higher volume than the up bar volume 4 bars earlier and was even lower than the next immediately preceding up bar's volume. Based on your criteria, this would have invalidated a buy signal. The market went up.

    Oh, and if you note the 9:28 AM down bar's volume, it is higher than the preceding down bar's volume 7 minutes earlier. Further, the 9:32 AM down bar's volume is fairly higher than the volume of a few earlier down bars. This would suggest a short on the basis of your critieria as you have explained it. In fact, the market rose.
     
    #445     Aug 3, 2009
  5. Let's deal with this step by step.

    You think it's after the fact. You have the Wyckoff books so look it up. Send the chart and my comments to any Wyckoff site. These are basic Level 1 signals.

    Your reading of the 9.34 is not Wyckoff and your analysis is badly off. Again check your books.

    9.28: Is not a good sell signal. It has lower volume than last selling but look left - where is your supply/demand to qualify this signal?

    9.31 (not 9.32) is testing the same level with increased selling and as you say it suggests a short. This is was followed with 2 red candles and not a rise that you saw.

    If you were learning volume I wouldn't let you trade, but if you have the books and can't find this stuff but think I make it up, then how can anyone put you on the right path?

    But look, if you have something that works for you, great. Just don't try volume trading with your present level of knowledge. Go all out for it or dump it.
     
    #446     Aug 3, 2009
  6. Oh, so that was a successful short?
     
    #447     Aug 3, 2009
  7. Correct.

    9.39 had an inside sell signal. It was explained and it is the easiest signal to see. A real screamer to teach a beginner.

    Clear volume climax with the biggest volume on the chart appearing on the red inside bar.

    I am not being cheeky here, but honestly, if you can not read that signal, please stop.

    The other signals you refer to need more skill. But not this one - it's the screamer.
     
    #448     Aug 3, 2009
  8. Do you think volume trading means you take every signal all of the time?

    That's like saying an engulfing candle is a signal therefore you take every one.

    But if someone says there's more to it you'll say it's cherry picking.

    Rock on dude.
     
    #449     Aug 3, 2009
  9. Whats killing Tdog is what kills most traders when using indicators.

    Most traders have trouble with differentiating between absolute and relative indicators.

    If u treat a relative indicator as an absolute and vice versa, then u will b killed almost every time.

    Again, volume is relative indicator folks
     
    #450     Aug 3, 2009