Would it be too much to ask for you or someone else to put up a spreadsheet so some traders can fill it in for you? Thunderdog, Buy1sell2 and others have really contributed a great deal to the volume discussion. The indicator orientation was also a contribution. One of the first and basic discoveries anyone should consider is the defined relationship of the periodicity of each of volume and price. This small whole number establishes a foundation for further debunking the myths. If debunking is unimportant and, on the other hand, you wish to take this foundation and put building blocks upon it, then you have a real chance of building replacement knowledge for the myths you presently follow. Volume periodicity is half that of price periodicity. Put another way: volume cycle frequency is twice that of the price cycle frequency. As all cycle frequencies are measured by three variables, it is a good idea to grasp the meaning of each variable before you begin to put the building blocks together. I'm sure all math oriented readers can see how the characterisitcs of cycle frequencies have influenced Thunderdog and the reasoning modus he is stuck with. If traderzones makes the minimal contribution, required for analysis on a spread sheet, then, perhaps we can begin to see the connection of cycles and making money. For example, look at a stock that has significant P, V cycles. During a recent period it cycled four times and price moved 30% after the two price and volume cycles began. The period of the price was 6 days so the trade was three days all based upon volume. So in trader zones Excel which he will post, we would enter the trading info and see at the bottom a performance in finacial terms of a 289 % increase for 12 elapsed days within the total period under review (a few seasons). In this example volume dictated the trade timing for price. In terms of the three measurable variables of the cycle, the example shows some very important information. The math people here have simply determined that the phase angle of P compared to V is very significant. We know that the frequency ratio of V to P is 2 as dictated by the Hypothesis Set of the markets. Our attention is immediately drawn to the phase angle difference and its relative magnitude to the total cycle time. In terms of time for the example and in terms of 400,000 sample size, this value is less than a quarter sigma from the mean, mode and median. This phase angle data is THE enabler for those who wish to use the forthcoming traderzone Excel spreadsheet. By inserting the stocks into the sheet, you readily find out if the stock qualifies for trading using the P, V phase angle comparison as a qualifier. Here is the sequence of ET that could unfold. 1. persons post their manner of mind function for a concern. 2. Another person contributes a suggestion to follow, as analysis logging, to come to understand performance of money making instruments 3. one after another, people post the types of instruments that could be tested. 4. others contribute the testing tooling for the TA aspect that is not known to person 2. above. So far we have some of each of the above: 1. Tdog told us his mind's myths learned from stated authors and others. 2. TZ said he thinks spreadsheets work. He may back his talk with some walk. 3. A stock that cycles was described. (Its P, V phase angle makes trading it a done deal.) The P cycle magnitude was nice too (30%) 4. A phase angle set of stats appeared as a filter for measuring. This becomes a test column on the Excel for filtering "good" and "bad" stocks to trade.
Why not make a few real-time calls and show us how it's done. Or don't show us how it's done but make a few real-time calls employing volume in whatever manner that suits you. After all, you recently posted the following: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2493057&highlight=beginner#post2493057 Since you claim to be anything but a beginner, let's see how it's done. Let us witness the practical execution of superior volume analysis as you describe it. I am ready to be put in my place.
Let's replace "volume" with "previous price action" in your above example. Price can move up after it doesn't move for X period of time. Price can move down after it doesn't move for X period of time. Price can go up after it moved down for X period of time. ... Price can ------ Get the point? Or are you saying that technical analysis should be discarded as it is also too much information?
That's never going to happen. jack hershey is one of the biggest frauds still wondering around the corridors of ET.
No one I know of or see posting in ET thinks you need or should be put in your place. I think most people are encouraging you to be successful. I feel that it is a good idea for all people the take advantage of their opportunities and just become wealthy. I believe the best way for a person to grasp the function of volume is to use simple lists. As the market opens, the columns of the list record information and you can use one column to sort by a volume kind of measure and just see how this works for skillfully making timely trading decisions to make money. There is simply a convenient time offset between when volume takes a stock to the top of a list and that stock's price begins it's long portion of a cycle. I appeal to your interest is wanting to consider making money and, as a consequence, just read about how to use the lists and spend some time observing it happening on your trading platform. Anyone wanting to see me doing the same has only to view videos at their leisure. I have posted here before and after charts of price doing what you may see in the future if you watch lists. A before chart means a chart annotated into the future. An after chart means a chart where price filled in the space annotated for it on the before chart. For literally years I have repeatedly posted the means of using the lists and the document that has about 30 illustrations of the planned day passing where what was planned came to pass. (Putting the Pieces Together") This information was all read by Trader666 for years and years and to this day he has been unable to make public his findings of the "proof" so many people desire from third parties. If someone PM's you and offers the documents to you, take their offer and allow yourself to get the documents. If no one does, then, if you feel it is appropriate, ask me for my email by pm, and we will take it from there. It may be that someone in your area can invite you to their set up and you can observe their activities. There are people all over who use the lists to trade. Many sorting script resources are on pltaforms since we have a place where people contribute their sorting scripts, etc. For years we posted, daily, the calls and results of taking the calls. Today, mostly everything is canned so it can be used by anyone.
Quote from jack hershey: Would it be too much to ask for you or someone else to put up a spreadsheet so some traders can fill it in for you? Sorry to overtax your brain This small whole number establishes a foundation for further debunking the myths. And statistical proof does not? Which dimension do you live in? If debunking is unimportant ...for the myths you presently follow. I know it went over yourhead Jack, so I will shorten what I said for you "We should be able to take a randomly selected sample of several hundred "volume based" only trades into a spreadsheet, and see significant outperformance edge with reasonably good statistics (Profit Factor, Sharpe, max DD, Calmar, etc.) over a sufficiently long period overa diversity of instruments. Volume periodicity is half that of price periodicity. Put another way: volume cycle frequency is twice that of the price cycle frequency. As all cycle frequencies are measured by three variables, it is a good idea to grasp the meaning of each variable before you begin to put the building blocks together. I'm sure all math oriented readers can see how the characterisitcs of cycle frequencies have influenced Thunderdog and the reasoning modus he is stuck with. Yes Jack, this is much better than statistical validation. TDog is not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer, if you never got around to reading a number of his posts. I put him on ignore a long time ago perhaps we can begin to see the connection of cycles and making money. take a look at the couple year performance results of eminiz.com - of Jack Ehlers (Mr. Mesa or the cycle guru). He crashed and burned on his cycles. He has already redone the site twice, since it continues flubbing. to quote his home page: Cycle Period: The front month E-Mini S&P 500 (ESU09) contract has a dominant cycle period of 25 days Cycle Swing Position: The swing position is near the middle of the cycle and has recently been increasing For example, look at a stock that has significant P, V cycles. During a recent period it cycled four times... yadayada After this, you went on a typical Jack out-of-body ramble Sorry to confuse the matter with requesting real-world proof, which apparently you think pales in comparison to yourbrain dump. Although he is a continuing nuisance, cold/c-kid/Jasonn had you pegged.
So what would have happened if the five Excel spreadsheets had materialized by my completing the data requirement unavailable to you? We would have had to move forward to turn the work into a deductively based model or development. How did the onepager become something that was not inductive? That probably will escape the thinking of most people. It is very difficult to build deductive models and conduct development from a deductive orientation. The key contributors the the knowledge pool that makes this possible are: Keynes, Bayes, and Carnap. The one pager includes their thoughts on the matter. Many people in Tucson did the four trades in my yadayada example. They happen to be respected and admired by their peers with whom they met weekly. The world is very different to people who have been there and done that. For most people it is probably difficult to imagine sitting around with people who routinely make use of a deductively defined and refined tool. I do not think you can imagine a person trading the same stock four times in a few months and making 30% each time in 3 or 4 days. All I put on the table, one more time, was a simple opportunity for anyone who wanted to take it. You explain how and why you don't get it and you put Tdog on ignore. What would ET be like if mandelbrotset actually learned to trade stocks first and then learned to trade the ES the same way on a frequency 50 times faster? It's mind boggling that using a onepager for a few months to build up capital and get the mind differentiated could do for the rest of a person's life. You guys do not get it. It is sitting in front of your faces. It is simple. It is universal.
Sorry jack, I need proof ... and I most definitely haven't seen it from anyone in your camp. So to me, it's just a boondogle. And you might as well ask the same question of yourself and your followers. Bye now.