volatitliy poor last few days

Discussion in 'Trading' started by silk, Jan 14, 2003.

  1. silk


    It hasn't been good day trading lately.

    Volatility in the futures has dried up. VIX has fallen to 26. The year started off with some nice moves (most of which i misplayed) but the last 3 days has been miserable. Most of my sectors that i trade have been untradeable if you miss the 1'st hours move. And if you have taken too many shots you have surely churned yourself.

    I hope things heat up soon. My style needs stocks to move over a point in a day or it is hard for me to make money.
  2. trading and go the lecture / speaker / book route

    on how you made it bigtime !:)
  3. You are right. You miss the one move in the morning and you are basically screwed the rest of the day. These are the type of days where having no disipline to stop trading will kill you.
  4. Tea


    I agree. We are in a holding pattern. Instead of VIX, look at the ADX on a 15 or 30 minute chart of the S&P. When the 14 period average is below 18 stand aside or at least be careful.

    Most patterns seem to have a high failure rate in this environment.

    By the way, does anyone think we are in the handle of a cup and handle pattern on the S&P with the edges of the cup 8/23/02 and 12/2/02?
  5. qdz2


    Volatility is gonna be more poor in this week. Typical pin and glue since the option sellers have vested interests and more funds to push the market the way they want. This is a typical kind of technical manipulation. Do not dream the market is going to move away this week (well, I might be wrong but not likely).

  6. Here's hoping for low volatility...
  7. dbphoenix


    You're kidding. Thursday, Friday and Monday had VERY strong moves, at least until 1100. Granted you can't just stand by the road and watch the traffic go by, but the point gains on all three days were excellent in the futures.

  8. Perhaps you should read more carefully. He says he is trading stocks and not futures and even in ES beyond the first hour you could not get 'strong moves' on the days you mentioned. So he is right.

    Today's ES range was less than 11 pts, very small indeed, only two moves for more than 5 pts during the day.
  9. Tea


    Of course it all depends on how you trade. Perhaps trading was good on the tick or 1-minute charts. Above those time frames none of the normal patterns seem to work. But even then, it depends on how you trade.
  10. dbphoenix


    Not sure what you mean by "normal". These three days were all preceded by large gaps. The normal action would be to fade those gaps. Thursday, of course, did not, but the key in the early morning is to act quickly. Since volatility pretty much disappears by 1100 or 1130, one has to take advantage of it or not trade much at all.

    If one's strategy doesn't allow for that sort of trade, all he can do is wait or develop a wider variety of strategies.

    #10     Jan 14, 2003