Volatility

Discussion in 'Trading' started by duard, Apr 29, 2006.

  1. duard

    duard

    Fader-- nice chart!!!

    So do you think S & P cash has support @ 1300 and will up from there?
     
    #11     Apr 30, 2006
  2. fader

    fader

    i don't gauge s&p on the support/resistance basis, i have found it very tough with this mother-of-all indices - looking at this downward trend in volatility, i am guessing that bigger players targeting more aggressive returns have had little choice but to short volatility on any significant spikes up - therefore, i can guess only that we may continue to see the behavior similar to some of the action in the 90's, i.e. there will be event-driven or macro-driven spikes in volatility, such as Katrina, oil, politics etc. - similar to the lurch in yields in '94, the LatAm in '97, the Russia/LTCM in '98 etc. but those spikes in volatility may continue to be shorted / market bought until the environment changes.

    as for shorter term, i have been following this hyperbolic move in the broker-dealers since the end of last year - and the monstrous breakout in the banks / financials in the last two days - the techs may be weak, but when the largest component sector of the s&p is breaking out to new all time highs with such force, i will be watching this move closely and who knows depending on how it pulls back, it may find s&p back at 1300 - all the best.
     
    #12     Apr 30, 2006
  3. fader

    fader

    yes, i have gone through a few different color combinations in the last few years and it seems that this one is the most comfortable for my eyes... - all the best.
     
    #13     Apr 30, 2006
  4. An important question here that I haven't seen addressed:

    Some are predicting a stock rally, perhaps dominated by large caps, if/when the Fed 'pauses'.

    Which begs the question: If US market rallies from here what should we expect in volatility??

    Typically volatility falls in a rising market, but does it fall if the market is rallying to a climactic top? And can it still fall meaningfully from here?

    I'm thinking a last-gasp rally could keep vol depressed through the rest of the year ...
     
    #14     May 1, 2006
  5. duard

    duard

    Pretty dismal huh!?!

    I think volatility can spike in a topping market but we could just stagnate.
     
    #15     May 1, 2006
  6. Are you guys using the Vix as the Volatility measurement?
     
    #16     May 1, 2006
  7. Volatility???

    what freakin' volatility??
     
    #17     May 1, 2006
  8. duard

    duard

    EXACTLY!!!
     
    #18     May 1, 2006
  9. duard

    duard

    A HA HA HA!!!
     
    #19     May 1, 2006
  10. duard

    duard

    Doink!!!
     
    #20     May 1, 2006