Hey Dest I have noticed you haven't mention trading pitchforks in any of your posts for awhile do you still trade these at all?
I don't trade them. I used them in my sheet for skew valuation, but use something else now. So no. I'll get back to the thread over the wknd. The vol has kept me busy. Decent start to the day. 4/4 for the week.
Thanks for that. So the something else you use now is that cause it is better at isolating the skew than the pitchforks are?
Yup. So I was backcountry snowshoeing/camping the last two days in the Mt Rose Wilderness and my oldest texts me that his net liq shows him down $11K on a two lot NQ straddle. He had shorted the 12,700 combo last night with futures at 12,450 (good call). The calls were marked correct but the puts were marked to last night's trade, so it was marked to 860-880 instead of 560 legit mid. I told him to quote the equivalent NDX combo (am vs. pm only difference) and text me back. He was relieved and decided to keep it for a touch of 12,700. I don't know if he covered, but he was up $2-3K on the trade. Here's an example of why you trade synthetics. Long futures and short two 12,700 calls. Always trade OTM whenever possible. He clears TDA but what if the marked loss had exceeded his maintenance? IBTWS would have liquidated the thing at the mkt and who knows what the fill would have been lifting the (nonexistent) offer.
Wish I had bought a fly when the market tested 3720. Was going to buy a straddle but didn’t get the break. Didn’t occur until later to fly it if I changed the view. ‘Twas the neckline I had been watching. Bought the SPY which worked fine, scalped about 30 SPX(preference for Es but, compliance). Gave it back x4 - so mad at myself being so greedy and reckless. That fly would have cleaned up I think a lot about the premise of this thread - position guys usually do better in vol. I just don’t want to grind an account out getting that lesson.
You got the meat, so good going. Probably should start a trading thread/journal. I bought the synthetic 1000/13000/14500 132 fly from 1770 or so, can't recall. I think it trades to 1900 next week. Also long futures against.
I think chatter is way ahead of itself with the growth/NDX impending death - feels very much like a pullback out of a triangular breakout - SPX feeling real head and shoulders though but definitely unconfirmed - looks totally different. I think NDX will lead and I think that’s a harbinger of what the rest of the mkt will do especially in rates… also Tesla is in the Spx now and Tesla is coming back into a triangular breakout. Thinking 350-400 there who knows