They just cracked it down off of the highs at 34.94 Yesterday's high was 34.70 Can they close it above yesterday's high? 34.61 last with 5 minutes to go.
Hurricane Ike projected to hit the Texas coast. Anyone thinking about buying a REFINER that does not have its facilities located anywhere along the Texas coast, in order to take advantage of less supply and an improving crack spread?
I have been long Tesoro (TSO) from 15 it had a nice run to 19.50 and sold off like everything else today to 17.26, ALL of their refineries are located on the west coast, one one or two in alaska and one in hawaii and the crack spreads are higher on the west coast then the gulf crack as per their invester relations website releases the benchmark cracks every monday, the gulf one is around 11-12 while the west coast one is 17+, AND they just finished upgrading more of their refineries to accept more sour crude further improving margins, Therefore i am long and holding on as it is one of my only stocks lately that has made ANY money, and your right Hurricane ike can turn at any second towards refinery lane and take out some more capacity, that would be nice but forecasts for hurricanes further than 48 hours are super not accurate if you watch the updates every 3 hours rite now the computer models for landfall right now change 100-200 miles in different directions every 3-5 hours but TEXAS coast FOR SURE
VLO now trading into new low territory for the move (30.15) . . . and this AFTER the IEA report of a drawdown in gasoline stocks of -6.5 million barrels, far surpassing the -4.2 million estimate. Go figure.
this is ridiculous i know more than 2$ of profit on TSO disappeared in two days... still gonna hold onto this something is wrong here.
VLO and SUN and the other refineries on FIRE due to the anticipated storm surge created by Hurricane Ike, which is currently having a bigger "wind-swath" and 50% more kinetic energy surge in the GOM than Katrina! Even if Ike doesn't get to Cat III or Cat IV strength, the storm surge to the Texas coast line ( and refineries ) is anticipated to be MONSTROUS!!! Gasoline futures are going to the moon. :eek:
these stocks are going higher, last week gulf crack spreads were all in the 10-12$ range today it is 16$ and west coast crack spread is even higher so refiners like TSO and FTO should benefit the most. TSO and FTO are also optimized for sour crude so they can benefit even more as margins go higher. The whole point of refiners lowering their utilization rates was to find demand and i think somewhere around these levels is where it picks up again.