Discussion in 'Trading' started by Bryan Roberts, Jan 26, 2002.

  1. Bryan Roberts

    Bryan Roberts Guest

    Can anyone please explain what happened to volatility in the markets????? i think the vix was at 22.50 friday....these are summer numbers, what gives???? i've asked some pretty sharp traders about this and all were puzzled!!! don, gene any ideas????
  2. The Vix measures fear in the market if there is panic and puts have a high premium the VIX reflects the fear. In this market there is no fear or optimism. The market is looking for guidance so option activity is low. The VIX is something like a overbought or oversold indicator.
  3. Consider this possiblity. If the current market is devoid of any extreme fear or greed (ie. optimism) this is an indication of uncertainty. Typically uncertainty can be a turning point.

    In particular, over the past week or two, I've noticed a large % of the charts I'm looking at have been in an uptrend, have broken trend lines, are moving sideways with diminishing volatility. To me they're screaming that a change is about to occur.

    I don't have many unshakable beliefs about the market, but one I do have is: periods of volatility follow periods of quiet, and vice versa. It's the only sure cycle in the market.

    Just my opinion.
  4. This market is just waiting for some direction the first sign will probity set off some volatility. It all comes down to what Greenspan is focusing on and recently he has said there is some stabilization. The market has been expecting more bad news and hasn't got it. The price moves that have been happening are probably due to hedge funds covering shorts. specialists and marketmakers bidding up there stocks anticipating future buying and building inventory to provide future liquidity. Always remember the market reflects the latest information and the market is never wrong. nobody know's for sure what is going to happen all we can do is react to what is happening.
  5. Bryan Roberts

    Bryan Roberts Guest

    hey guys thanks for your input!!! i hope that you are right bundlemaker (nice name), in that the charts are screaming for a change. i've only been trading a few years and this has easily been the toughest market i can recall.
  6. PitBull


  7. PitBull


  8. thought I'd put up a 3yr of the VIX with some annotation
    those 2 big spikes made for some great buying opp's ...the sell signals are a bit harder to pick out
    • vix.gif
      File size:
      27.4 KB
  9. Bryan Roberts

    Bryan Roberts Guest

    it's always pretty cool to see someone call a move before the fact. pitbull pretty much called this one 100%. thanks for the charts!!! just hope you made a bundle.
  10. vix is low again ladies and it time to go?
    the bullish % indicator is high too
    and that rally friday was nice , but did it have enough volume behind it?

    opinions please...
    (things I think about before I go out)
    #10     Mar 2, 2002