how about this for a suprise. we spike to 30-35 and start reversing and all jump in to buy thinking its the bottom and it reverses and the market crashes as the vix soars to 70-100 destroying all the vix 30 bottom fishers. nobody on earth expects that. bottom line if the vix stays at 20-28 we'll never get a real good 7-10% bounce
if the fed has to bail out a few more trillion in bank insurance the value of the dollar will keep dropping as our credit as a nation dwindles with our assets, we have a lot of problems to solve before this thing finds a bottom
I wonder how many the fed is going to have to bail out, as I'm sure that will be the case... I wouldn't call a bottom right now if I had to.
a buying out means adding more to national debt which means more printing of money which means more inflation which means a tax on everybody, especially the poor which means nobody is going to be buy anything which means short WFMI!
the fed is stuck here,if they bail out the banks and the currency deflates there could be a huge sale in bonds,foreigners removing there money,causing a world deflation in all currencies and a real 1929 type depression,if they dont bail out the banks we still fall and have a real 1929 type depression,so the only other alternative is for oil and commodity prices to fall and make life afffordable again,we will still have to eat the deflation of housing prices. Now there is only one way to lower oil prices and that would be to change the loopholes in the rules allowing you to speculate without taking delivery,there has to be a limit on how much you can carry long or short. The other adjustment would be that all real esate transactions must be made in federally regulated U S based institutions,basically all us goods transactions regulated by the U S laws,this subprime title they are using to explain this dilemna is a smoke screen,the amount of subprime loans don't represent enough of a percentage of the outstanding mortgages . The reason this market is tanking will probably never be revealed,the fact that it's not being leaked means the reasons are being guarded by a very select few.
YES, YES......better all have your 20 deviation out currency options plays in effect, Nassim Taleb style! :eek: "SWING AWAY" for those damn fences boys and girls as the U.S. starts off the worlds economies going to $hit
My opinion: Quant funds run by the big boys. Notice the pattern similarity, the technicality, time frame. All almost perfect. This is intentional, imho.