vix spike = temp bottom

Discussion in 'Trading' started by snowbird123, Jul 11, 2008.

  1. thats exactly what we needed - a spike to 29. Most people are looking to see it hit 30+ but keep in mind... most traders are looking for a minimum of 30 to mark a short-term bottom for the market. Part of the reason that the VIX is "low" can be attributed to the fact that the 20-day historical volatility on the SPX is relatively low, currently at 19.13. For example, that when the VIX peaked in March, the historical volatility on the SPX was 23.10, substantially above current levels. So, when observing the VIX, the "fear factor" is determined by the degree in which SPX implied volatilities, as measured by the VIX, are priced above the actual (historical) volatility of the SPX. This marked the top. We'll churn here for a while and then pop later in the day.
  2. picking up spy anywhere around 123 is a great buy here...
  3. good that oil is falling here, perfect storm brewing (a good storm)...will be a great mix soon....
  4. gobar


    wait till end of the day dow will close 11000 today

    and buy monday morning
  5. Investors Intelligence Sentiment spiking to levels worse than the October 25th, 2002 lows . . .

    Only 27.4% Bulls as of July 9th.
    And 47.x% Bears as of July 9th.
  6. I still think they will take them up hard soon...let's see, investing is all about probable spots and risk management.
  7. Surdo


    We have not seen the bottom IMHO!
    VIX needs to be a little closer 30 for any kind of meaningful bounce.
  8. I don't think this is THE bottom but a temp bottom with a significant bounce lasting a few weeks.
  9. Surdo


    I DO NOT pick bottoms or tops, The trend is down, when the trend turns, I will start buying ES.
  10. balda


    FDIC is taking over one of the banks as I type.

    Monday could be ugly.
    #10     Jul 11, 2008