Good Stuff, thanks. I wonder if it is any more telling than say a put/call ratio metric... or if the two are simply correlated. Any thoughts?
I am cautious about put/call ratios on heavily traded issues. I love the ratio for illiquid names which all of a sudden show a huge disparity, but for the VIX, with nearly 250,000 contracts a day - prob not a great indicator. For what it's worth, today its 7:1 calls: puts. It averages 2:1 calls: puts
Casual observation, the crisis started long before 09-09-08 In fact I recall about Aug. 2007 a big fall in prices and the media played it off as the "exchange had a glitch" due to all the "selling" the truth, there were a lot of sellers AND the market couldn't handle it, beginning of that crisis, next one who knows
Yeah, I agree. I decided to go wth 9/9/08 just b/c it was a pre-cursor to a huge move in VIX - but yes, this didn't "start" in Sep '09... I agree.
It all started with the Bear funds in June 07. Then on the 9th of Aug 07, three BNP funds suspended redemptions. After that, arnd the end of August, it was the collapse of Coventree, the Canadian commercial paper conduit.
Yeah Bill Gross was calling for market crash with real estate underpinning back in 2004 I think ? His timing doesnt have to be correct just direction, eventually big $$$ easier to trade