VIX is moving

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Poljot, Oct 20, 2020.

  1. Poljot

    Poljot

    6 consecutive up days in VIX.
    Are we in for a spike again?

    vix201020.JPG
     
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  2. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun Sponsor

    Hope so, I'm long UVXY. Good chart observation, I'm using VIX 30 as resistance, will scale up if it stays over 30 for at least a couple of days
     
  3. Millionaire

    Millionaire

    Increased market volatility due to election uncertainty.

    Market will go up after the election regardless of who wins, as things will become more certain, but before that the market will be uncertain about the result...
     
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    I predict (there's that word again) that it will spike above 50 by election night.
     
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  5. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    No. This is an example of charts not telling you the whole story. August was a run up in vol caused by supply demand.
    This time was started with the lunacy of our president flip flopping on stimulus.
     
  6. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    ZeroHedge was talking about a whale who bought 360,000 VIX Puts this past Friday. He does alot of OTM stuff that's mostly worthless but he hits some giant winners on occasion. Word is he made something like $2.6B in February being long OTM Calls.
     
  7. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    no reason to believe it’s the same guy.

    the call buyer publicly regretted the strategy even though it ultimately earned.
     
  8. Poljot

    Poljot

    Last time in 2016 VIX began moving 10 days before election day and actually peaked 2 days before, on Nov 4th (Friday).
    Some of uncertainty evaporated during the weekend.
    That was a move of 9,5 points from a base of 13.

    Now base is at 25 and it started moving a week earlier.
    If it increases by 5 more points in the coming 7 days, then we're at around 35 on the 28th.
    I expect 35-45 on Friday 30th.

    vixnov2016.JPG
     
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  9. maxinger

    maxinger

    It is ranging between 24 and 30.

    It will continue to range between 24 and 30,
    regardless of candlestick colors, until the chart
    says it is not ranging.
     
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  10. Poljot

    Poljot

    The chart is saying we have a breakout.
    I have not checked the news today, but it is saying there must have been some bad news or increased uncertainty...
    Perhaps there is not much added value in reading the news and looking for explanations when this gap candle says it all.
    I wonder what is causing more volatility nowadays: Trump tweets or covid cases?

    vix2710.JPG
     
    #10     Oct 26, 2020
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