fair enough and i appreciate your color. your description is what i was aiming for, but i knew i would potentially experience losses and therefore kept extra on the side to add if i had to. i know this trade had some serious downside risk, but thats why i wasnt loading the boat with it (i took your advice from last time and kept it small). maybe ill move off it next time around, but we'lll see where we are at then. because the pnl was able to be realized so soon, i took what i can get because the path that was presented to me. should we get back up there, i will probably look to do it again (but i may look for a better entry this time around) good discussion, thx for the input. not all my trades have so much variance to the pnl
I thought it would work, but that cash would touch 13.00 prior to the Fed and you would be needing a buck on cash to beat the premium. The thesis is good; to be long the synthetic time on the refusal to mark-down 10D strangles into the Fed on a serial expiration (my opinion). The street-vol analogy would be XYZ coming into earnings and the front vol rallying from 60 to 80 due to the binary event. The thesis was unproven due to mkt action in the cash mkt, but it doesn't mean you were wrong. Outright long Jan was nice!
i'm good. i was long dec and short jan. i closed it yday for profit and have nothing in the spread today, although it has moved a lot more.
OP could have made a killing if not for all of us nay-sayers. RA's analogy to earning announcement nails it.
hah - thanks. hard to argue when you're all more expierenced than me, but i did my best. too bad to miss out on more of this pnl, but im glad i got some. if anyone else followed it.. things can get pretty hairy here... i'm envisioning october all over again. LOL.