eyeballing it.. saying.. if this.. then that in your head.. cool just wondering .. probably be just as messy if you put math to it..
Spent more time than anyone should on figuring out what to do about Mar. I tried playing Jan and while I didn't really get hurt by the cliff I didn't make anything either (still small money; I'm not stupid enough to really do something serious at the stage I'm at now with this thing). I'm thinking I'll wait until Tuesday to do anything, as I've begun to notice a pattern where VIX rises after expiration when it declines sharply into it, like now. As of now though it looks like tomorrow will be yet another down day for the VIX, so maybe I'll set up a Feb long tomorrow and do the short Mar on Tuesday or later. I agree of course that the trade looks like a good one. Fighting the last war is always a worry though; maybe the fight over the debt ceiling goes into Mar and VIX stays up? Although I suppose a long on Apr would solve that. Ah well, no rush. Still time to think about this one.
Man such vol opinions...u guys all can't be the only ones shorting march vol in whatever combos..i 'm on the other side longing it..so we will see.
Who is everyone? A few traders on ET? The reason why the fly is so wide is because there is some serious size behind the march bid. I don't commit large bets on binary events like these but a repeat of August 2011 would be too obvious of a scenario.