Good point, however I did a call spread, not an outright sell, so max risk on each done is 500-108 = 392 per. 392 * 6 = 2352 max risk overall, against max profit on the put side of 892 * 2 = 1784. Cost of the put spreads was 108 per, so assuming absolute worst case and held to expiration I'd see a loss of 2352 + 216 = 2578. Stinging but not catastrophic. As you're probably aware, the diff between each strike on the VIX options isn't that high, and expands and contracts only slowly. So, as a practical matter, once you've done a spread the max risk on each spread would only come into play on a truly extreme and rapid move in the VIX, remembering that a rise in the implieds hits both sides of the spread, after all, firstly, and secondly the SPY put spread value would rise as well with a rise in overall implieds that a rise in the VIX is a measure of. Considering how wide I made those put spreads I'd see a nice increase in value on any increase in IV that accompanies a downmove. Overall IV on April puts according to TOS at the moment is only 15.4%, so there's a lot of room on the upside there. Anyway, that's why I'm running the experiment, to see how all this interacts.
I like your structure. +400ish if we rally from here. -250 in a crash and who knows in between. But I think it could be > +400 and unlikely to be less. Best case scenario, we grind down 3-4% and sport VIX is around 22 when we settle. And I can't imagine a reasonable scenario where spot vix is 28 and spot is higher. The VIX callspread helps cut the convexity risk out.
Leaving the SPY puts unbounded makes the correlation and delta vs. var less a concern. Maybe go OTM a bit on SPY to add convexity.
That's true. I think the key to hedging is the callspread instead of the outright call. Now he doesn't need to worry about the VIX going convex against the SPYs. I like the trade better than what I was doing. I had bought Apr 23 and Apr 21 puts outright and was going to sell them in a few weeks.
Nice day so far for this. Impressive little strategy for taking advantage of the craziness in the VIX futures. Thanks atticus. Now, how long is this craziness going to go on for? I'm hoping forever so I can harvest some truly measurable lettuce from it, but I know that's probably unrealistic.
Actually, THE trade was short the MAR/APR/MAY fly EOD on friday. Much better IMO. As close to a sure thing as you are ever gonna see. Absolutely massive edge into expiration, with almost no risk. Only posting it because it is gone now. I'm not as charitable as you I guess.
lol cache, you're funny.... let me ass ume you are no longer short may jun from 120! short mar april is similar as long april may but the fly affords more direct hedge to short vol, hope you really did it. i was/am in none of the first two switches.
spy put hedge needs to be adjusted as response of vix to spx movement changes/accelerates as vix futures get closer to maturity.