this was just an excellent day to trade and the increase in volatility has been long in the waiting. the "V" bottom and move back up for the es was a perfect re-short as the market failed the resistance {final run back up to 1184.75 and then she fell right back down} from when it had broken down hard earlier {when 1186.00 was busted} --- then another ratchety sell-off into the close --- WOW what a great day! these are the days to clean up and appreciate what good volatility can do for your P&L! there better not be any complaining about "no follow through" moves these days! tomorrow may get wild again --- i hope so!
Of course it bounced back over the last two years. We were in a bull market. The figures mean nothing. Runningbear
I would expect this to work in most any market - It's only a short term (10days) trading system. I must admit though, that I haven't researched this past my small sample size. I don't have access to historical VIX data. Anybody want to step up and look at this from a long term perspective?? cheers,
Now that we're back on the happy side of the ledger, does anyone want to take a long term look at this trading system? I'm wondering how well it holds up over say, a ten year period. The VIX data I have goes back only 2 years. cheers,
After a horrific start, this system trade was profitable. On Oct 19th, the S&P closed at 1195. The VIX dropped over 10% that day. Ten trading days later, it closed at 1214 - a gain of 19 points. The system is now 7 for 7 in the past 2 years. And if anyone's counting....the VIX dropped 10% again today. That should mean the S&P will be higher than 1214 on Nov 16th. We'll see.... cheers,
One of the biggest misconceptions in trading is that you can make directional trades using the VIX. Chart, correlate, or datamine the hell out of it, and you still won't find anything. Same thing with the daily price change in oil and the S&P, look at it yourself. No correlation. Trader/God
Do you think the good results of this system (7 out of 7) is merely a statistical deviation? Perhaps due to the very small sample size? Does anyone have 10+ years of VIX data to backtest this system with?