Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jrs3, Oct 21, 2003.
Old buy sell readings may be a thing of the past.
I no longer subscribe to trading markets have larry connors dozen or so vix reversal systems been triggering and wrong. If so what is he saying about that.
As I have suggested on several other threads regarding this topic, it is quite possible that the Storm of Volatility has been over for the past 6 months or so, and that we are heading back to LOWER "historical" levels.
VIX just like any other indicator (such as stochastics, for instance) can stay at extreme levels for a while, especially in a strongly trending market. The trend is your friend, catching tops or bottoms might boost your ego from time to time, but if you really need this, you have a problem.
vix is being calculated differently now it is no longer follows same data so you have to adjust to new readings.
check this out
Stay tuned for a massive selloff as early as oh say... October 22nd.
I don't know much about the vix but I have seen larry connors say on many occasions that it is not the current level of the vix that matters, it is the level of the vix in relation to whatever moving average he uses for his systems.
VIX indications were quite reliable over the bearish period 2000, 2001, 2002.
For this year it is nearly useless [if we see it as a contrarian indicator]
The VIX displays greater volatility (indicating greater fluctuation in sp100 or sp500 option premium) in bear markets than in bull markets. As the market has been in an uptrend since march, what the VIX presumes to measure on a derivative basis - investor nervouseness - has been at a reduced level.
The VIX level has been confirming the bull mode.
The old VIX I beleive now is VXO, and it is still being measured.
TradingMarkets writers trot the VIX out in their commentaries but that is because they are selling it in Conners' package as a tool of analysis.
No indicator is completely reliable as a standalone.
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