well.. If I learned anything from the movie Wall Street then I learned that.. "GREED IS GOOD!! GREED WORKS!!" Go market $$$
i guess you can say never, all i could pull up on yahoo charts was this max chart going back to 1990 copy and paste, couldnt get the whole thing.....16 yrs not once below 10 http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart5:symbol=^vix;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=
When the markets were selling off in mid summer the ^VIX meant everything when it was trading above 20, now that the markets are in bull mode and the ^VIX is under 10, it doesnt mean a thing...
thats the way the game works. it only means something if its good for the bulls. if not you're screwed as its a 1 way street
Be careful when comparing older VIX values and trying to derive expectation with market dynamics. The VIX was not published until 1993 & I have no idea when it became widely followed. There was also a formula change not too long ago. As such it should be intuitive from "observable systems" theory that the formation and publishing of VIX itself may alter large scale market behavior. In other words market characteristics before VIX was formalized, published and observable by a wide number of traders is probably much different than it it now. I would imagine that the VIX formalization of "volatility" now encourages the masses of common traders to make more objective (less emotional or "gut") decisions. I would expect that in turn has a direct feedback on market trading behavior. In other words traders and institutions now have a tangible metric for quantifying "fear" or volatility in a more holistic way. In my opinion this VIX formalism will tend to reduce premiums and itself attenuate volatility and drive it lower with a control feedback loop (assuming negative feedback and a stable system). I am all but certain that VIX now objectively effects trading decisions and sentiment in a more globally homogeneous way than during pre-VIX or early VIX periods. So, I would personally never accept or assume that any such volatility metric can observe or predict the market without itself injecting wide spread "sentiment" and "expectation" artifacts into the market; essentially modifying how the market would have naturally reacted had VIX never been published or widely followed. Just my own theory. Frankly, I personally make the conjecture that VIX has a tendency to drive options price behavior to the same order of magnitude that it measures or responds to prices. After all , on a personal basis I personally often choose to be a writer or a buyer in any given period based on VIX levels since low VIX implies low premium when shorting; and vice versa when buying long. While there will be no doubt continue to be those that buy and sell options completely independent of VIX for simple position hedging etc. I think it should be intuitively obvious that many traders will hedge or write as a direct consequence of VIX being published and either relatively "high" or "low". In my simple way of looking at VIX the whole thing looks like a case of the dog chasing its own tail. But I personally don't care as long as I can make money and the dog never catches what it chases to eat its own lunch. TS