I knew that. Or were you reminding yourself? Anyway, if predicting the direction of the inexes were as easy as tracking the vix wouldn;t we all be doing so?
i theorize this phenomenon has a lot to do with the black boxes and automated programs locking up volatility... watching the nasdaq l2 is like playing space invaders i think reality will kick in though it will likely be event driven.... some sort of black swan thing... this market is just like it was before the liquidity blow out in may.... just dont be the last guy holding the bag...
1. if you knew that, then you wount say it means nothing 2. the VIX does not track the indices...it tracks volatility. 3. nobody said it was easy. 4. I would tell you how to take advantage of a volatility play but you annoy me.
no, not quite...it means that odds are high that a higher volatility environment is right around the corner. Sentiment is independent of this. Vix is calculated but the with puts and calls on the CBOT...sorry i dont know the exact equation on how they calculate it. but... the last several months we have been in a very tight channel with very little deviation (beta) from a very tight trend channel...it has basically wbeen a straight line in one direction. A super low vix means look out for possible big movement either up or down...or both. the word of the day is...STRADDLE.
so, you play long and short at same time. would you mind sharing what you're longing and what shorting at this moment.
the VIX is calculated with the S&P options contracts and their volatility. as volatility goes up, the price of both calls and puts increases... so i would be looking for an S&P 140 straddle, if the prices of those options are historically low to ba able to take advantage of a large volatility premium versus the price.
hmmm vix could be at a low because in the atmosphere of demand for more alpha (eg loads being poured in hedge funds which have higher alpha) risk premiums are slashed (see credit spreads market) and therefore volatility slows. the VIX is said to be the level of implied volatility priced into American style stock options using the binomial equation - I don't know how the index itself is composed though. More volatility means more expensive options, which is what causes vix to rise.