Quick background - been selling front month index 4 months and made 41% on margin, so I'm a committed seller, and new to this. I developed an "expected gain/loss" spreadsheet based on probabilities from OptionVue. Now that VIX is low, my spreadsheet shows significant expected loss from selling, so I've switched gears and bought $200k front month in RUT & NDX. I understand the general rule of selling high volatility and buy low vol. That leads to my question: Does it make sense to blindly follow that general rule which dictates when to be a buyer/seller, or do you think my probabilities of selling are nearly the same regardless of VIX because "those in the know" are confident that stocks won't move much in the coming month, which is why VIX is properly low. Put another way, I'm not sure whether to believe OptionVue's percentages or the market's prediction of volatility in the coming month. Any input would be appreciated!