Visial USD/CAD this year

Discussion in 'Forex' started by kalzayani, May 31, 2007.

  1. I hate that... it did!!
     
    #111     Aug 15, 2007
  2. I don't do CADJPY. However, I've lost a bit by jumping on USDJPY too soon. Expect to gain it back however - loaded up at 116.71 which looks pretty close to 1-year support and now riding the waves as it sorts out its confusion. Will be back in the black when it gets to 118.35 or so, could be today.
     
    #112     Aug 15, 2007
  3. sound about right for an average 116.7
    I am accumulating as well
    eur/usd around 1.33 to 1.32 Target 1.4010
    GBPUSD 2.9650 Taget 2.144

    I do not thing usd/cad will go higher then 1.11

    gl
     
    #113     Aug 16, 2007
  4. Have reversed field on USDJPY, now think it's heading towards PPP, which according to the Economist is around 109. Reasons: BoJ is under new management, their economy is stumbling because of lack of liquidity. Low interest rates were supposed to increase liquidity, but the carry trade has siphoned it all off, so BoJ has decided to hit it on the head by selling off some of its $900bln in foreign reserves. They should really raise rates, too - theirs is only 0.4% above inflation, where most other big economies run at around 1.5%-2%. At the same time with US inflation down and the economy heading for recession, the Fed will be dropping rates Real Soon Now. BoJ is really pulling off a short squeeze: once they have forex rates down where they want them, they'll slowly start buying back in. But the carry trade may definitely be dead, or at least in hibernation for a long time.

    BoC dumped a bunch of loonies into the market yesterday, causing the loonie to drop, but I notice it has already backed off from 1.09 and is back in the 1.07 range. I don't think we'll see 1.04 again, but it's too soon for USDCAD to make the big recovery
    move. Maybe in October. Then I think it'll get up to 1.13 or so by the end of the year, depending on oil and how the US economy is doing. Canadian mfg figures are off, that's why we're off 1.04. Also oil failed to hit records and is back in the low 70s - when it drops another $5-$10 you'll see USDCAD roar. The credit crunch is spooking M&A, and when it hits consumer credit you could well see a US recession - and that will light a fire under USDCAD.

    GBPCHF is heading south, I think back to its 14-year mean of around 2.27. That was another pair that was driven by carry trade. Lots of good-looking prices around - EURUSD, GBPUSD,
    especially AUDJPY at under $90 and AUDUSD under .79 - we haven't seen prices like that for a while. But I think we are in the middle of a major international currency realignment and who knows what is going to happen. Once central banks start splashing trillions around, we are pawns in their hands. I think the best strategy right now is not to make the long-term plays, but to channel-trade and scalp a few pips here and there, while waiting for some sanity to return.
     
    #114     Aug 16, 2007
  5. wow man...what 2 weeks
    this is too much
    I Hope this week this will do OK

    GL GS

    FX
    EURUSD Buy
    USDJPY Buy
    USDCHF Sell
    GBPUSD Buy *
    USDCAD Sell
    AUDUSD Buy
    NZDUSD Buy
    USDSND Sell
    USDHKD Sell

    GBPJPY Buy
    GBPAUD Sell
    GBPCHF Buy
    NZDJPY Buy
    CADJPY Buy
    AUDJPY Buy
    EURJPY Buy
    EURNZD Sell
    EURCAD Sell
    AUDCAD Buy
     
    #115     Aug 26, 2007
  6. USO Seems Like a sell GS
    While NGAS is North
    for the next 2-3 weeks

    GLD Seems South and SLV North...
    Does not make sence...
    Getting the same GS?
    TIA
     
    #116     Aug 26, 2007
  7. I don't know, man - I lead a simple life. USDJPY carry trade is definitely back on, expect 121 in a few weeks. I have a lot ridinfg on that. USDCAD should be recovering, with the credit crunch killing M&A, oil down and Canadian manufacturing figures off, but it will recover at 4 pips a day with lots of action in between. I expect it will touch 1.13 by December. Central bank interventions were a stopgap - the US economy is still heading south for the winter. Housing starts keep plummetting "seasonally adjusted", and this is the peak building season. We won't be selling them much lumber this winter, and the fallout will cut resource exports, too. Once the driving season is over, watch for oil to drop back down to $50 or below. All bad for the loonie.
     
    #117     Aug 26, 2007
  8. I am Still Selling USDCAD for 1.02
    seems wants 1.07 after that

    AUD/USD Seems Like want north fast for 0.89
    GBPUSD Seems Like a pick till 2.06 Over next 2 weeks
     
    #118     Aug 27, 2007
  9. these days it's a buy GS
    Maybe 1.15 on the way for next 20 weeks
     
    #119     Sep 16, 2007
  10. doing this GS
    for a while

    Currency Sell
    NZD/USD 0.73384
    AUD/USD 0.86483
    AUD/CAD 0.89252
    AUD/CHF 1.02673
    USD/CAD 1.07855
    USD/CHF 1.19559
    AUD/NZD 1.22312
    EUR/USD 1.39388
    EUR/CAD 1.48482
    EUR/CHF 1.66931
    EUR/AUD 1.70344
    EUR/NZD 2.05582
    GBP/USD 2.07028
    GBP/CHF 2.44064
    NZD/JPY 85.054
    CHF/JPY 98.15
    AUD/JPY 100.312
    CAD/JPY 112.041
    USD/JPY 116.015
    EUR/JPY 162.626
    GBP/JPY 239.281

    Buys

    EUR/USD 1.34169
    USD/JPY 110.813
    GBP/USD 1.97455
    USD/CHF 1.166
    EUR/CHF 1.62384
    AUD/USD 0.80729
    USD/CAD 1.0256
    USD/CAD 1.017
    NZD/USD 0.66901
    EUR/GBP 0.67568
    EUR/JPY 153.289
    GBP/JPY 223.965
    CHF/JPY 93.491
    GBP/CHF 2.36209
    EUR/AUD 1.61414
    EUR/CAD 1.41394
    AUD/CAD 0.84152
    AUD/JPY 89.984
    CAD/JPY 102.561
    NZD/JPY 74.247
    GBP/AUD 2.36004
    AUD/NZD 1.17749
    AUD/CHF 0.96359
    EUR/NZD 1.91031
     
    #120     Sep 17, 2007