Visial USD/CAD this year

Discussion in 'Forex' started by kalzayani, May 31, 2007.

  1. Could be, never looked at EUR/JPY. Unfortunately when you trade in pairs that don't involve your base currency, IB doubles your margin requirements (i.e. treats it as if you were holding positions in both EURUSD and USDJPY), which severely restricts your flexibility. I know I've done some dabbling in things like GBP/CAD, but I'm a reformed man.

    USD/JPY looks to me like it's still heading south, maybe to 117.50 or 117. Then the carry trade should resume. I've set up a modest short, and if/when it gets down to those levels I'm in with all my chips, hoping to get a 700 pip ride augmented by a bit of channel trading on the way up.

    USDCAD, as I suspected, went up too far too fast and is headed back to 1.04. It will stage a big rally eventually, but not until October I don't think.

    EURUSD is looking awfully cheap at under 1.37, so that might be a better short-term ride than shorting USDJPY. Maybe I'll split my bets. I know you think it's heading south, but the eurozone economy is still looking strong and the US economy is still wobbling and the pundits are still calling for 1.40.
     
    #91     Aug 1, 2007
  2. Going with this trends
    till oct

    GL

    1.5 Months
    Index Daily
    EUR/USD Buy
    USD/JPY Buy
    GBP/USD Buy
    USD/CHF Buy
    EUR/CHF Hold
    AUD/USD Buy
    USD/CAD Sell
    NZD/USD Buy
    EUR/GBP Sell
    EUR/JPY Buy
    GBP/JPY Buy
    CHF/JPY Buy
    GBP/CHF Buy
    EUR/AUD Sell
    EUR/CAD Sell
    AUD/CAD Sell
    AUD/JPY Buy
    CAD/JPY Buy
    NZD/JPY Buy
    GBP/AUD Sell
    AUD/NZD Sell
    AUD/CHF Buy
    EUR/NZD Sell
    USD/SGD Buy
    USD/HKD Sell
     
    #92     Aug 4, 2007
  3. I agree with most of that excepte USD/CAD Sell. I am staying out of USD/CAD until it gets back down to the 1.03 range, and then I'm buying for the long hold.

    Right now I'm in USD/JPY at 117.98, waiting for others to reach favourable entry points. Suspect I've missed the boat with EURUSD. IB doesn't have all those pairs. It does have HKD, but I'm staying out of that because it moves like molasses, and I'm sticking to xUSD or USDx because of the IB margin problem.

    What will happen in 3 months, nobody knows. I expect USDJPY to
    move up in about a 150-pip channel, so I've set a trail to kick in at 119.25. I'll reverse at that point, and try to buy back in trailing from 118.50. After that, we'll see.
     
    #93     Aug 4, 2007
  4. GSP
    CHEKC this out bro

    1.00667236 0.988583289

    1.008426681 0.991235588

    these are coef
    with close
    but two types
    if USD/JPY Close below previous

    Then Long Using Close*0.988583289
    and Short or Close Position at same Close*1.00667236


    if Close Is above previous
    Then Long
    at
    Clsoe*0.991235588

    and Short at at Close*1.008426681
     
    #94     Aug 5, 2007
  5. Like for today

    118.838 116.702
     
    #95     Aug 5, 2007
  6. USD/CAD
    will short

    1.0635 1.0443
     
    #96     Aug 5, 2007
  7. GSP

    Check on USDCAD
    I think U are right
    Did some on Weekly Data
    I do Have uptrend on it
    cycle for that is about 9*3 weeks=25 weeks say...

    On daily some down trend still
    9*3 days cycle
    say another month....
    so IMO with this conflict in Trend
    ---> slow down is Normal... Probably this 1.03 is AVG lowest point for a 7 Year North rallie

    Good Call Bro
     
    #97     Aug 6, 2007
  8. Buying Cable today

    Pr(OK) High Low
    90.32% 2.0560 2.0321
    92.65% 2.0568 2.0315
    95.05% 2.0580 2.0308
    96.54% 2.0589 2.0301
    97.68% 2.0599 2.0295
    98.49% 2.0609 2.0288
    99.04% 2.0619 2.0281
    99.41% 2.0629 2.0274
    99.64% 2.0639 2.0268
    99.79% 2.0649 2.0261
    99.88% 2.0659 2.0254
    99.94% 2.0669 2.0247
     
    #98     Aug 6, 2007
  9. kalz, what tools are u using?
     
    #99     Aug 6, 2007
  10. Pr(OK) High Low
    90.32% 2.0560 2.0321
    92.65% 2.0568 2.0315
    95.05% 2.0580 2.0308


    Hi GS
    for the above using conditional statistics (Just normal AVERAGE and Standard Deviation.

    SOrt of stratifying the close as being Higher or Lower then the day before
    will send you this file
     
    #100     Aug 7, 2007